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MONEY  AND  PRICES 

A  STATISTICAL  STUDY  OF  PRICE  MOVEMENTS 


A  DISSERTATION 

SUBMITTED   TO   THE  FACULTY  OF   THE   GRADUATE   SCHOOL   OF   ARTS 

AND   LITERATURE   IN  CANDIDACY  FOR  THE  DEGREE 

OF   DOCTOR   OF   PHILOSOPHY 

(department  of  political  economy) 


BY 

JAMES  DYSART  MAGEE 


Reprinted,  with  Additions,  from 

The  Journal  of  Political  Economy,  Vol.  XXI,  Nos.  8  and  9 

Chicago,  19 13 


trbe  XHniversitp  ot  Cbicaoo 


MONEY  AND  PRICES 

A  STATISTICAL  STUDY  OF  PRICE  MOVEMENTS 


A  DISSERTATION 

SUBMITTED  TO  THE  FACULTY  OF  THE  GRADUATE  SCHOOL  OF  ARTS 

AND  LITERATURE  IN  CANDIDACY  FOR  THE  DEGREE 

OF  DOCTOR  OF  PHILOSOPHY 

(department  of  political  economy) 


BY 

JAMES  DYSART  MAGEE 


Reprinted,  with  Additions,  from 

The  Journal  of  Political  Economy,  Vol.  XXI,  Nos.  8  and  9 

Chicago,  19 13 


MONEY  AND  PRICES 

A  STATISTICAL  STUDY  OF  PRICE  MOVEMENTS 
I.      INTRODUCTION  AND  DISCUSSION  OF  METHOD 

The  recent  literature  on  monetary  theory  is,  to  a  great  extent, 
concerned  with  a  controversy  as  keen  as  any  ever  waged — the 
controversy  over  the  Quantity  Theory  of  Money.  The  discussion 
is  carried  on  in  rather  better  spirit  than  was  shown  in  some  of  the 
earlier  controversies,  but  the  differences  are  just  as  marked  and  the 
defenders  of  each  side  just  as  earnest.  Some  sHght  concessions 
have  been  made  by  each  side.  There  have  been  some  shiftings 
from  untenable  positions  and  much  careful  qualification  in  state- 
ment, but,  in  general,  the  result  today  seems  to  be  a  clear  deadlock, 
each  side  refusing  to  give  up  its  main  contentions. 

Such  a  situation  suggests  that  the  line  for  future  advance  lies 
in  a  careful  scrutiny  of  the  facts  of  the  case  rather  than  in  further 
theoretical  analysis.  The  problem  considered  in  this  study  is  the 
relationship  which  exists  between  changes  in  the  amount  of  money 
(in  banks  or  in  circulation),  or  changes  in  the  amount  of  bank 
deposits  on  the  one  hand,  and  changes  in  general  prices  and  changes 
in  the  prices  of  particular  groups  of  commodities  on  the  other  hand. 
The  study  is  primarily  statistical — a  study  of  what  has  actually 
happened.  However,  the  bearing  of  the  results  upon  certain 
theoretical  points  of  monetary  discussion  is  briefly  indicated. 

3 


4    ■  MONEY  AND   PRICES 

Prices  are  often  grouped  for  the  study  of  price  changes  into 
classes,^  such  as:  wholesale  prices,  retail  prices,  prices  of  stocks, 
of  bonds,  of  real  estate,  prices  fixed  by  law,  prices  fixed  by  custom, 
wages,  prices  of  commodities  made  of  the  money  metal,  prices  for 
substitutes  for  such  commodities,  speculative  prices,  and  rents. 
For  many  of  these  no  index  numbers  are  available;  e.g.,  retail 
prices  (except  for  food),  real  estate  prices,  prices  fixed  by  law  and 
custom,  prices  of  commodities  made  of  the  money  metal,  of  substi- 
tutes for  them,  and  rents.  In  some  cases,  where  material  could  be 
found,  new  index  numbers  were  constructed  for  this  study.  On  the 
other  side  of  the  comparison — the  money  side — we  have  estimates 
of  the  total  and  per  capita  circulation  of  money  in  the  United  States 
and  statistics  of  the  amount  of  specie  and  legal  tenders  and  of 
deposits  in  the  clearing-house  banks  of  New  York  and  Chicago. 
When  the  term  money  is  used  in  this  study  in  a  general  sense,  it 
may  mean  any  or  all  of  these. 

It  is  clearly  recognized  that  the  list  of  price  movements  and  of 
money  movements  given  is  not  ideal,  but  availability  and  not 
theoretical  perfection  must  be  the  determining  factor.  The  dis- 
cussion is  limited  to  the  United  States. 

The  results  obtained  are  stated  merely  as  facts  concerning  the 
particular  markets  studied  by  certain  methods  for  definite  periods. 
No  attempt  is  made  to  generalize  the  particular  statements  into 
laws  holding  for  all  times  and  all  places.  Such  an  attempt  would 
require  an  estimate  of  the  error  which  is  involved  in  the  process 
and  also  an  estimate  of  the  error  involved  in  generalizing  from  a 
certain  limited  period.  This  last  estimate  especially  would  be 
very  difficult,  if  not  impossible,  to  get.* 

In  economics  we  cannot  experiment,  and  so  we  must  rely  on 
observation  and  comparison.  We  have  price  changes  recorded  in 
series  of  index  numbers.  The  question  then  is  whether  any  rela- 
tionship exists  between  the  price  movements  indicated  by  these 
series  of  index  numbers  and  variations  in  the  amount  of  money  in 

'  Cf.  Johnson,  Money  and  Currency,  p.  127;  Fisher,  The  Purchasing  Power  of 
Money,  pp.  186-87. 

'  Cf.  Edgeworth,  "On  the  Use  of  the  Theory  of  Probabilities  in  Statistics  Relat- 
ing to  Society,"  Journal  of  the  Royal  Statistical  Society,  LXXVI  (January,  1913), 
186-87. 


INTRODUCTION   AND   DISCUSSION   OF   METHOD  5 

circulation  or  in  banks  during  the  same  period.  Taking  causation 
in  Karl  Pearson's  sense  of  "an  antecedent  stage  in  a  routine  of 
perceptions,"*  we  evidently  must  find  out  whether  changes  in  one 
series  are  followed  by  corresponding  changes  in  the  other  series  and 
get  some  method  for  summarizing,  in  simple  form,  the  result  of  our 
observation. 

Pearson's  Coefficient  of  Correlation  has  been  used  at  times  for 
this  purpose.*  But  the  applicability  of  the  method  of  correlation 
to  cases  involving  index  numbers  has  been  questioned.^  The 
objections  to  the  use  of  the  Coefficient  of  Correlation  with  index 
numbers  are  (i)  that  it  entirely  disregards  the  element  of  time, 
and  (2)  that  it  shows  perfect  correlation  when  the  absolute  changes 
are  the  same  as  well  as  when  the  relative  changes  are  the  same. 
When  we  are  dealing  with  index  numbers  we  are,  of  course,  con- 
cerned with  relative,  not  absolute,  changes. 

The  present  writer  has  proposed^  a  means  of  expressing  the 
relationship  between  two  series,  called  the  Degree  of  Correspond- 
ence. There  are  two  cases:  (i)  where  account  is  taken  of  the  direc- 
tion of  the  change  only,  and  (2)  where  the  amount  of  the  change 
as  well  as  its  direction  is  considered.  To  compute  the  Degree  of 
Correspondence  in  the  first  form,  we  start  with  the  definition  of 
correspondence  between  successive  terms  of  the  two  series.  If  an 
increase  or  decrease  of  one  series  occurs  with  a  movement  in  the 
same  direction  of  the  other  series,  or  if  both  remain  constant,  we 
say  there  is  positive  correspondence  and  express  it  by  +i-  If  one 
series  shows  no  change  between  two  terms  while  the  other  changes, 
there  is  no  correspondence,  which  is  denoted  by  o.  If  one  series 
increases  and  the  other  decreases,  or  vice  versa,  there  is  negative 
correspondence,  indicated  by  —  i.  The  numerical  value  for  the 
first  form  of  the  Degree  of  Correspondence  is  found  by  taking  the 
arithmetic  mean  of  the  numbers  which  indicate  the  correspondence 

'  Grammar  of  Science,  p.  150, 

'  Cf.  Yule,  "The  Application  of  the  Method  of  Correlation  to  Social  and  Economic 
Statistics,"  Journal  of  the  Royal  Statistical  Society,  LXXII  (December,  1909),  721. 
Yule  gives  a  list  of  the  more  important  cases  of  its  use  and  some  discussion  of  the  results 
obtained. 

3  Magee,  "The  Degree  of  Correspondence  between  Two  Series  of  Index  Numbers," 
Quarterly  Publications  of  the  American  Statistical  Association,  XIII  (June,  1912),  174. 


6  MONEY   AND   PRICES 

between  the  successive  terms  of  the  two  series.  It  is  obvious  that 
this  result  may  vary  in  value  from  + 1  to  —  i . 

Nothing  particularly  new  is  introduced  in  this  method.  The 
only  novelty  is  to  be  found  in  the  method  of  expressing  the  result. 
For  example,  Irving  Fisher/  to  disprove  the  theory  that  the  rate 
of  interest  depends  upon  the  amount  of  money  in  circulation,  shows 
that  the  per  capita  circulation  of  money  and  the  rate  of  interest, 
in  the  period  1 871-1905,  vary  together  in  i8|  cases  and  in  opposite 
directions  in  15^^  cases.  If  interest  did  depend  on  the  amount  of 
money,  we  should  expect  to  find  that  almost  all  of  the  cases  showed 
variations  in  opposite  directions.  Fisher  counts  the  cases  where  one 
factor  is  constant  and  the  other  varies,  as  neutral,  and  adds  §  to 
the  number  of  direct  variations  and  ^  to  the  number  of  inverse 
variations.  King^  has  an  empirical  method  for  getting  an  expres- 
sion for  what  he  calls  the  Coefficient  of  Correlation  (not,  of  course, 
the  Pearsonian)  by  a  formula  which  considers  the  relation  of  the 
number  of  pairs  of  items  in  the  two  series  to  the  number  of  "con- 
current deviations"  that  is,  deviations  in  the  same  direction. 

The  basis  for  the  use  of  this  method  of  observing  whether  the 
changes  of  two  series  of  quantities  agree  or  not  is  the  same,  what- 
ever means  are  used  to  express  the  result,  and  may  be  given  briefly 
as  follows:  If  we  consider  the  direction  of  the  changes  shown  by 
two  series  of  numbers  entirely  unrelated,  and  if  the  number  of 
items  in  the  two  series  is  large  enough  to  allow  the  Law  of  Averages 
to  work,  we  should  expect  the  number  of  agreements  and  disagree- 
ments to  be  about  equal.  If,  in  the  long  run,  the  agreements  and 
disagreements  are  not  equal,  then  we  argue  that  there  is  some  causal 
relation  between  the  two  series.  Bowley^  has  developed  this  idea 
in  an  analogous  case.  Illustrations  of  this  principle  are  common. 
To  take  the  classic  example  of  dice  throwing,  if  we  are  throwing  a 
single  die  a  large  number  of  times,  we  expect  to  have  each  of  the 
faces  come  up  about  the  same  number  of  times.  If  then,  in  the 
long  run,  one  particular  face  comes  up  more  frequently  than  the 
others,  we  conclude  that  the  turning-up  of  the  faces  is  not  a  matter 

'  The  Rale  of  Interest,  pp.  320-22. 

'  Elemetils  of  Statistical  Method,  p.  208. 

i  Elements  of  Statistics  (3d  ed.,  London,  1907),  p.  268. 


INTRODUCTION   AND   DISCUSSION   OF   METHOD  7 

of  chance,  but  that  there  is  a  specific  relation  of  cause  and  effect. 
Probably  the  die  is  loaded.  Or  suppose  we  are  studying  the  effect 
of  changes  in  temperature  upon  the  sale  of  some  commodity.  If 
no  causal  relationship  exists,  we  should  expect  to  find  associated 
with  increases  or  decreases  in  temperature,  in  the  long  run,  prac- 
tically equal  numbers  of  cases  of  increases  and  decreases  of  sales. 
But  if,  in  the  long  run,  an  increase  in  temperature  is  found  in  most 
instances  to  be  accompanied  by  an  increase  in  sales,  and  a  decrease 
in  temperature  by  a  decrease  in  sales,  we  should  argue  that  some 
causal  relationship  existed  between  the  two. 

The  first  form  of  the  Degree  of  Correspondence,  as  was  pointed 
out,  has  virtually  been  used  by  others,  but  in  the  second  form  some- 
thing new  is  added.  For  that  form  takes  into  account  not  only  the 
direction  of  the  change,  as  do  the  other  methods  similar  to  the 
Degree  of  Correspondence,  but  also  the  amount  of  the  change. 
Unless  the  changes  are  in  exactly  the  same  proportion,  we  substitute 
for  the  I  of  the  +i  or  —  i  of  the  first  method,  a  fraction  which  is 
obtained  as  follows:  the  percentages  of  increase  or  decrease  for 
the  corresponding  items  are  computed,  and  the  smaller  is  divided 
by  the  larger.  After  this  number  has  been  computed  for  each  pair 
of  values,  the  arithmetic  mean  is  taken  and  the  result  gives  the 
Degree  of  Correspondence  in  the  form  which  considers  the  amount 
as  well  as  the  direction  of  the  changes.  In  most  instances  we  shall 
use  only  the  first  form  of  the  Degree  of  Correspondence.  In  a 
few  cases  where  correspondence  in  more  than  direction  might  be 
expected,  the  second  form  will  be  employed. 

In  a  study  of  price  changes  and  changes  in  the  amounts  of 
money,  we  are  dealing  with  the  results  of  a  vast  number  of  co- 
operating causes.  It  would  be  idle  to  expect  that  changes  in  prices 
could  be  the  sole  cause  of  changes  in  the  amounts  of  money  or  that 
changes  in  the  amounts  of  money  could  be  the  sole  cause  of  changes 
in  prices.  So  we  use  the  broader  term  "causal  influence"  rather 
than  the  single  word  "cause."  We  are  interested,  then,  in  testing 
the  amount  of  causal  influence  between  the  movement  of  prices  and 
the  movement  of  the  volume  of  money,  and  in  the  question  of  the 
direction  in  which  the  causal  influence  runs. 

Some  time  often  elapses  between  the  cause  and  the  effect.     In 


8  MONEY   AND   PRICES 

such  a  case  we  have  an  element  of  what  is  called  "lag."  It  is  this 
element  of  lag  which  enables  us  to  trace  morp  causal  influence  from 
the  facts  displayed  in  one  series  to  those  displayed  by  the  other  than 
in  the  reverse  direction.  Suppose  that  we  are  dealing  with  two 
series  expressed  in  weekly  averages.  We  are  interested  in  the 
movements  of  the  series — whether  the  terms  of  the  series  are 
increasing  or  decreasing.  We  may  designate  as  the  movement 
for  any  given  week,  the  change  from  the  preceding  week.  Thus,  if 
the  term  of  the  series  for  the  first  week  in  January  were  higher  than 
that  for  the  last  week  of  December,  we  should  express  it  by  saying 
that  the  first  week  in  January  showed  an  upward  movement.  With 
this  convention  as  to  terminology,  we  may  now  show  the  importance 
of  lag  in  the  study  of  causal  influence.  If  a  week  elapses  between 
the  cause  and  the  apparent  effect,  then  obviously  the  correspond- 
ence in  the  movement  of  the  one  series  (the  cause)  with  the  move- 
ment of  the  other  is  not  with  the  movement  for  the  same  week, 
but  with  the  movement  for  the  following  week.  Thus  under  the 
conditions  assumed,  the  movement  in  the  efect  series  for  the  second 
week  in  January  would  correspond  to  the  movement  in  the  cause 
series  for  the  first  week  in  January.  The  movement  in  the  efect 
series  for  the  third  week  in  January  would  correspond  to  the  move- 
ment in  the  cause  series  for  the  second  week  in  January,  and  so  on. 
Thus  if  we  know  that  one  series  lags  after  the  other,  we  assign  the 
causal  influence  to  the  second  series.  Of  course,  we  shall  not  expect 
to  find  cases  where  complete  correspondence  is  shown  when  lag 
is  allowed  for  and  no  correspondence  is  shown  when  lag  is  not 
allowed  for.  But  we  do  expect  to  find  cases  where  more  correspond- 
ence is  shown  when  lag  is  allowed  for  than  when  it  is  not.  One 
reason  for  the  lack  of  complete  correspondence  is  the  different 
lengths  of  time  which  may  elapse  between  the  cause  and  the  effect. 
If  the  two  series  move  together,  both  series  may  be  the  results  of 
one  cause,  or  the  interval  that  separates  cause  and  effect  may  be 
less  than  the  unit  of  time  covered  by  our  figures.  For  example, 
if  a  day  elapses  between  the  cause  and  the  effect,  weekly  figures 
would  probably  not  show  any  lag. 

In  arguing  for  the  existence  of  more  causal  influence  because 
there  is  more  correspondence  when  lag  is  allowed  for  in  one  direc- 


INTRODUCTION  AND   DISCUSSION   OF   METHOD  9 

tion  than  when  it  is  allowed  for  in  the  other,  we  must  remember 
certain  limitations  of  the  method.  If  we  have  two  series  moving 
all  in  the  same  direction,  e.g.,  {i°;  ig."  2°;  30.' 3°;  lo},  then  the  correspond- 
ence (for  direction)  is  perfect,  whether  we  compare  with  the  items 
of  one  series  the  same,  previous,  or  later  items  of  the  other  series. 
So  the  method  gives  us  results  only  when  the  series  do  not  move 
in  the  same  direction  all  of  the  time.  And  any  -long-continued 
movement  in  one  direction  lessens  the  possibility  of  telUng  in  which 
direction  the  causal  relation  lies. 

Then  again  we  must  consider  the  matter  of  periodicity.  The 
two  series  may  display  some  regularity  of  movement.  If  we  take 
the  two  series  {1°;  17',  15;  is!  12}'  we  see  that  the  terms  alternately 
increase  and  decrease.  The  series  then  shows  perfect  positive 
correspondence  (for  direction)  for  the  same  items.  If  we  shift  one 
item  forward  or  one  item  backward,  then  the  comparison  shows 
perfect  negative  correspondence.  If  we  shift  two  items  forward 
or  two  items  backward,  we  get  perfect  positive  correspondence 
again.  We  shall,  in  general,  shift  only  a  few  items  in  each  direction 
in  order  to  avoid  getting  to  the  point  where  the  periodicity  of  the 
series  would  explain  the  movement  rather  than  any  correspondence 
between  the  two  series  due  to  an  element  of  lag. 

Two  distinct  kinds  of  information  can  be  derived  from  the 
study  of  the  correspondence  of  two  series,  if  tests  for  lag  are  made  in 
both  directions:  (i)  we  may  get  information  as  to  the  amounts 
and  kind  (whether  positive  or  negative)  of  correspondence,  and 
(2)  by  comparing  the  amounts  of  correspondence  for  the  various 
amounts  of  lag,  we  may  determine  the  direction  in  which  the  greater 
causal  influence  runs,  remembering  that  the  cause  precedes  the 
effect.  An  illustration  may  be  given.  Suppose  we  are  testing  two 
series,  A  and  B,  composed  of  weekly  figures,  and  we  find  that  the 
correspondence  of  the  movement  of  A  with  the  movement  of  B 

for  the  previous  week  is  +  •  20 
for  the  same  week  is  +  ■  16 
for  the  following  week  is  + .  10. 

We  then  say  that  B  exerts  more  causal  influence  on  A  than  A 
exerts  on  B,  for  the  correspondence  is  greatest  between  A  and  the 
previous  week  of  B.     That  is,  the  change  in  B  precedes  the  change 


lO  MONEY   AND   PRICES 

in  A.  If,  however,  the  correspondence  of  the  movement  of  A 
with  the  movement  of  B 

for  the  previous  week  is  +.15 

for  ihe  same  week  is        + .  13 

for  the  following  week  is  + .  30, 

then  we  argue  that  A  exerts  more  causal  influence  on  B  than  B 
exerts  on  A,  for  the  greatest  correspondence  of  movement  comes 
in  B  a  week  following  the  movement  in  A. 

In  most  cases  where  lag  has  been  studied  it  has  been  tested  in 
only  one  direction,  because  it  is  assumed  that  the  causal  influence 
runs  in  a  certain  direction.  In  this  paper  we  shall  test  for  lag  in 
both  directions,  making  no  assumptions  as  to  the  direction  in  which 
the  causal  influence  runs. 

One  form  of  study  of  statistical  movements  attempts  to  separate 
the  movement  into  various  parts  for  study.  Thus  Norton^  analyzes 
movements  in  statistics  as  resolvable  into  certain  ideal  elements, 
namely,  (i)  the  growth  element,  (2)  periodic  elements,  and  (3) 
dynamic  elements:  (a)  the  cycle,  (b)  the  catastrophe,  and  (c)  minor 
dynamical  changes.  We  are  not  interested  in  following  this 
analysis  completely,  but  by  taking  long  periods  we  get  at  least 
complete  credit  cycles,  and  by  taking  averages  of  various  lengths 
of  time  we  ehminate  the  matter  of  minor  periodicity,  e.g.,  the  aver- 
age for  the  year  eliminates  any  periodicity  which  occurs  within  the 
year.  We  are  primarily  interested  in  testing  the  relationship 
between  price  movements  and  the  money  movements  just  as  they 
occur  no  matter  from  what  cause  they  may  arise. 

Having  outlined  the  method  to  be  used  in  our  study,  we  may 
next  indicate  the  material  to  be  studied.  The  list  of  price  move- 
ments studied  is  as  follows: 

Bond  prices  on  the  New  York  Stock  Exchange,  1890-1908,  weekly, 
monthly,  and  yearly,  from  a  table  of  index  numbers  prepared  for  this  paper. 

Mitchell's  Index  Numbers  of  Stock  Prices  on  the  New  York  Stock 
Exchange,  1890-1909,  monthly  and  yearly. 

The  Commons  and  Stone  Table  of  Stock  Prices  on  the  New  York  Stock 
Exchange,  1879-1901,  yearly. 

Farm  products'  prices  in  Chicago,  1899-1908,  monthly,  from  index  numbers 
prepared  for  this  paper  from  data  given  in  the  Bulletins  of  the  Bureau  of  Labor. 

'  Stalistical  Studies  in  the  New  York  Money  Market,  p.  23. 


INTRODUCTION   AND   DISCUSSION    OF   METHOD  II 

Speculative  prices  on  the  Chicago  Board  of  Trade,  1899-1908,  weekly 
and  monthly,  from  an  index  number  prepared  for  this  paper. 

The  Bureau  of  Labor's  Index  Numbers  of  Wholesale  Prices,  1900-1911, 
monthly,  and  1890-1911,  yearly. 

The  Aldrich  Report's  Index  Numbers  of  Wholesale  Prices,  1867-1890, 
yearly. 

With  these  various  price  movements  are  compared  the  appro- 
priate ones  of  the  following:  the  movement  of  specie  and  legal 
tenders  and  net  deposits  of  the  New  York  Clearing  House  banks, 
weekly,  monthly,  and  yearly;  the  movement  of  specie  and  legal 
tenders  and  gross  deposits  in  the  Chicago  Clearing  House  banks, 
weekly  and  monthly;  the  total  amount  of  money  in  circulation 
in  the  United  States,  monthly  and  yearly;  and  the  per  capita 
circulation  of  money  in  the  United  States,  yearly.  In  addition, 
the  statistical  proofs  of  the  Quantity  Theory  of  Money,  as  given 
by  Kemmerer  and  Fisher,  are  tested  by  the  method  of  the  Degree 
of  Correspondence. 

In  each  case  a  table  is  constructed  showing  for  the  comparisons 
at  the  various  intervals  the  number  of  instances  of  positive,  nega- 
tive, and  zero  correspondence,  in  three  columns  headed  +,  — ,  and 
o.  Then  in  a  fourth  column  is  given  the  numerical  value  of  the 
Degree  of  Correspondence.  Those  who  prefer  may,  of  course,  use 
some  other  method  for  summarizing  the  results  so  given. 

We  shall  now  indicate  briefly  the  bearing  of  these  statistical 
studies  upon  present  monetary  discussion.  First,  it  may  be  well 
to  indicate  clearly  what  the  study  does  not  pretend  to  do.  No 
attempt  is  made  to  offer  any  complete  explanation  of  price  changes. 
The  problem  is  a  narrower  one  than  that  problem.  The  study 
merely  tests  the  relationship  which  exists  between  certain  price 
changes  and  certain  changes  in  amounts  of  money.  Then  the 
question  arises  of  how  this  narrower  problem  is  related  to  the  dis- 
cussion over  the  vaHdity  of  the  Quantity  Theory  of  Money,  which 
is  the  principal  point  of  diiference  in  the  discussions  of  monetary 
theory  at  the  present  time. 

Probably  some,  at  least,  of  the  difference  of  opinion  between  the 
upholders  of  the  Quantity  Theory  of  Money  and  their  opponents 
is  due  to  differences  in  value  theory.     Both  sides  agree  that  a 


12  MONEY   AND   PRICES 

steady  increase  in  the  supply  of  gold  will  raise  prices.  They 
disagree  in  their  explanations  of  how  the  rise  in  prices  will  come 
about,  and  still  more  they  disagree  as  to  the  amount  of  the  change. 
The  upholders  of  the  Quantity  Theory  insist  that  "other  things 
being  equal,"  the  changes  in  the  two  variables  tend  to  be  exactly  pro- 
portional. Since  both  agree  as  to  the  long-run  direction  of  the 
change,  the  argument  is  primarily  on  the  question  of  the  propor- 
tionality of  the  change.  The  ambiguity  in  the  use  of  the  word 
"tends,"  which  has  been  often  noticed,  is  seen  here.  Tendency 
may  mean  what  will  happen  if  other  things  do  not  interfere — a 
hypothetical  statement;  or,  tendency  may  mean  what  will  probably 
happen  under  existing  circumstances.  Tendencies  in  this  sense 
are  discovered  by  observation  of  actual  occurrences.  Perhaps  the 
opponents  of  the  Quantity  Theory  of  Money  are  talking  about 
what  actually  happens  and  the  adherents  merely  about  a  hypo- 
thetical state  of  affairs.  Our  problem  then  may  be  stated  in 
alternative  ways :  we  are  attempting  to  find  out  how  far  the  alleged 
proportionality  does  occur;  or,  we  are  attempting  to  find  out  to 
what  extent  "other  things"  are  not  "equal"  in  actual  experience. 
There  are  three  classes  of  investigations.  First,  a  study  is 
made  of  the  correspondence  of  certain  particular  price  movements 
in  given  markets  with  the  movement  of  money  or  deposits  in  banks 
or  money  in  circulation.  It  is  obvious  that  such  investigations 
are  not  directly  a  test  of  the  Quantity  Theory  of  Money,  for  that 
theory  is  concerned  with  the  general  price  level.  But  according 
to  the  Quantity  Theory  of  Money  the  changes  in  the  quantity  of 
money  affect  the  prices  of  various  forms  of  wealth  in  different 
degrees.  Prices  do  not  move  in  unison:  they  vary  in  their  adjust- 
ability. Irving  Fisher^  gives  a  list  of  the  various  forms  of  wealth 
in  the  order  of  their  adjustability  to  price  changes.  Stocks,  in  his 
opinion,  are  the  most  adjustable;  wholesale  prices  are  next,  and 
bonds  are  the  least  adjustable.  J.  F.  Johnson,^  however,  maintains 
that  increases  in  the  volume  of  money  affect  first  the  prices  of  stocks 
and  bonds,  then  speculative  prices,  and  then  wholesale  prices. 
If  this  be  true,  then  the  correspondence  of  the  movement  of  these 

'  The  Purchasing  Power  oj  Money,  pp.  186-87. 
*  Money  and  Currency,  p.  127. 


INTRODUCTION  AND   DISCUSSION   OF   METHOD  1 3 

prices  with  the  movement  of  the  amount  of  money  should  be  close. 
Our  investigation  will  determine  how  close  it  actually  is,  in  the 
period  studied. 

In  the  comparison  of  price  movements  with  the  movement  of 
bank  deposits,  some  light  is  thrown  on  the  much-disputed  question 
of  whether  money  gets  into  banks  causing  deposits  to  increase  and 
so  causing  prices  to  rise,  or  whether  prices  rise  first  and  then 
deposits  increase  in  order  to  transact  the  increased  business.  No 
attempt  has  been  made  to  allow  for  changes  in  the  volume  of  trans- 
actions. In  so  far  as  there  are  differences  in  volume  it  may  be 
assumed  that,  in  general,  for  the  short  periods  we  are  considering, 
increased  volume  of  transactions  goes  with  rising  prices,  and  vice 
versa,  and  so  the  changes  in  volume  merely  accentuate  the  price 
changes. 

The  second  type  of  investigation  concerns  the  relation  of  move- 
ments in  the  amount  of  money  to  the  movements  of  wholesale 
prices.  This  study  may  be  called  an  investigation  of  the  crude 
Quantity  Theory  of  Money — crude  because  it  neglects  the  factors 
of  rapidity  of  circulation  of  money,  the  amount  of  bank  deposits 
and  their  rapidity  of  circulation,  and  the  volume  of  trade.  To 
those  who  hold  the  Quantity  Theory  of  Money  in  more  refined 
forms,  any  lack  of  correspondence  shown  will  simply  measure 
the  extent  to  which  the  "other  things"  were  not  equal.  We  may 
say  that  the  result  of  such  an  investigation  is  a  summing-up  of 
the  actual  relation  between  the  quantity  of  money  and  prices 
for  certain  periods.  It  has  a  bearing  on  the  practicabihty  of 
Irving  Fisher's  proposal  to  stabilize  the  dollar.^ 

The  point  which  has  been  mentioned  concerning  bank  deposits 
may  be  generalized  and  applied  to  money  as  well,  in  the  cases  of 
both  particular  and  general  prices.  The  question  may  be  put  in 
this  form:  Do  changes  in  the  supply  of  money  cause  changes  in 
prices,  or  do  changes  in  prices  cause  changes  in  the  supply  of  money  ? 
Irving  Fisher's  answer  is  given  as  follows: 

In  a  similar  way  seasonal  variations  in  the  price  level  are  reduced  by  the 
alternate  expansion  and  contraction  of  an  elastic  bank  currency.    In  this  case 

'  "A  Compensated  Dollar,"  Quarterly  Journal  of  Economics,  XXVII  (February, 
1913),  213. 


14  MONEY  AND   PRICES 

temporarily,  and  to  an  extent  limited  by  the  amount  of  legal  tender  currency, 
money  or  deposits  or  both  may  be  said  to  adapt  themselves  to  the  amount  of 

trade ' 

The  price  level  is  normally  the  one  absolutely  passive  element  in  the  equation 
of  exchange.  It  is  controlled  solely  by  the  other  elements  and  the  causes  ante- 
cedent to  them,  but  exerts  no  control  over  them.* 

Fisher  thus  holds  that  temporarily  the  amount  of  money  and 
deposits  may  be  influenced  by  prices,  but  that  normally  the  amount 
of  money  and  bank  deposits  determines  the  prices  (other  things 
being  equal). 

The  following  gives  Laughlin's  view: 

The  quantity  of  media  of  exchange  is  a  result,  not  a  cause,  of  the  evaluation 
between  gold  and  goods,  and  therefore  cannot  have  been  the  means  of  fixing 
prices.3 

This  reasoning  holds  presumably  both  for  short  periods  and  for 
long  periods.  The  opposition  of  these  two  views  is  not  exact  since 
Laughlin  is  considering  only  the  money  which  acts  as  media  of 
exchange  and  not  that  which  acts  as  the  standard  of  value.  He 
does  not  deny  that  changes  in  the  quantity  of  the  standard  money 
metal  affect  its  value. 

As  has  been  pointed  out,  we  are  able  to  reach  some  conclusion 
concerning  this  problem  of  the  direction  in  which  the  causal  influ- 
ence runs  by  computing  the  Degree  of  Correspondence  for  various 
amounts  of  lag.  The  case  is  simple  if  the  comparison  of  a  given 
price  movement  with  the  movement  of  money  for  a  preceding  or 
following  week,  month,  or  year  shows  the  highest  degree  of  corre- 
spondence. But  where  the  greatest  Degree  of  Correspondence  is 
found  in  the  comparison  of  the  given  price  movement  with  the 
money  movement  for  the  same  week,  month,  or  year,  the  case  is 
not  so  simple.  In  order  to  get,  in  such  a  case,  the  clue  to  the  direc- 
tion in  which  the  causal  influence  runs,  we  are  forced  to  consider 
whether  the  greater  correspondence  is  shown  when  the  comparison 
is  made  with  the  previous  or  with  the  subsequent  money  move- 
ments. 

'  The  Purchasing  Power  of  Money,  p.  i6i. 

^  Ibid.,  p.  172. 

3  Principles  of  Money,  p.  362. 


INTRODUCTION  AND   DISCUSSION  OF  METHOD  1 5 

The  Degree  of  Correspondence  has  been  computed  only  for  the 
direction  of  the  change  in  most  of  the  cases.  The  resulting  figures 
are  larger  than  the  figures  would  be  for  both  direction  and  amount 
of  the  change,  since  this  method  uses  +i  or  —  i  in  the  place  of 
some  fraction  expressing  the  relative  amounts  of  change.  Some 
idea  of  the  difference  may  be  had  from  the  cases  where  the  Degree 
of  Correspondence  was  computed  for  the  direction  of  the  change 
and  then  for  the  direction  and  the  amount  of  the  change,  as  was 
done  in  testing  the  statistical  proofs  of  the  Quantity  Theory  of 
Money  presented  by  Kemmerer  and  Fisher.  In  the  case  of  Kem- 
merer's  proof  the  Degree  of  Correspondence  for  direction  of  change 
is  + .  48  and  for  direction  and  amount  of  change  is  + .  20.  In  the 
case  of  Fisher's  proof,  the  Degree  of  Correspondence  for  the  direc- 
tion of  the  change  is  + .  3 1 ,  f or  the  direction  and  the  amount  of  the 
change,  the  figure  is  + .  23. 

The  third  type  of  investigation  examines  certain  attempts  at 
statistical  proofs  of  the  Quantity  Theory  of  Money.  These  proofs 
make  allowances  for  the  factors  omitted  from  what  we  have  called 
the  crude  theory.  They  compute  from  statistical  determinations 
of  the  various  factors  what  the  price  level  should  be  and  then  com- 
pare it  with  the  price  level  as  given  by  index  numbers.  The  Degree 
of  Correspondence  between  the  computed  and  the  actual  is  found  to 
test  the  conclusiveness  of  the  proof. 

II.      MONEY   AND   BOND   PRICES 

The  movement  of  bond  prices  on  the  New  York  Stock  Exchange 
for  the  period  from  1890  to  1908  inclusive  is  the  first  price  move- 
ment to  be  studied.  Weekly,  monthly,  and  yearly  averages  are 
used.  To  make  possible  this  study  a  new  index  number  of  bond 
prices  was  constructed.  The  index  number  was  computed  from 
the  actual  prices  of  certain  of  the  bonds  given  by  Kemmerer  in  his 
Seasonal  Variations  in  the  Relative  Demand  for  Money  in  the  United 
States,  one  of  the  publications  of  the  National  Monetary  Commis- 
sion.^    Kemmerer  gives  the  prices  of  twenty-seven  different  bonds 

'  Kemmerer,  Seasonal  Variations  in  the  Relative  Demand  for  Money  in  the  United 
States,  pp.  423-510. 


l6  MONEY   AND   PRICES 

for  various  periods.     From  this  list  were  taken  nine  bonds  whose 
prices  are  given  for  the  period  1 890-1 908: 

Central  Railroad  of  New  Jersey,  general  gold  fives  of  1987 

Chicago,  Burlington  and  Quincy  (Nebraska  Extension), fours  of  1927 

Chicago,  Milwaukee  and  St.  Paul,  general  gold  fours  of  1989 

Denver  and  Rio  Grande,  first  consolidated  gold  fours  of  1936 

Iowa  Central,  first  gold  fives  of  1938 

Missouri  Pacific,  first  consolidated  gold  sixes  of  1920 

New  York  Central  and  Hudson  River  (West  Shore) ,  first  fours  guaranteed 

of  2361 
St.  Louis  and  San  Francisco,  general  gold  fives  of  1931 
Wabash,  first  gold  fives  of  1939 

and  the  one  bond  for  which  prices  are  given  for  the  period  1891- 
1908,  namely, 

Missouri,  Kansas  and  Texas,  first  gold  fours  of  1990. 

The  quotations  for  the  prices  were  taken  by  Kemmerer  from 
the  Commercial  and  Financial  Chronicle  and  are  the  prices  on  Friday 
of  each  week.  As  Kemmerer  is  interested  in  the  problem  of  seasonal 
variations,  he  takes  for  each  year  only  52  quotations,  even  in  the 
years  which  contain  53  Fridays.  So  it  was  necessary  in  such  cases 
to  supply  the  missing  figures  from  the  Commercial  and  Financial 
Chronicle.  In  all  cases  the  prices  represent  "and  interest"  prices, 
that  is,  accumulated  interest  is  deducted.  The  average  weekly 
price  for  the  years  1890  to  1899  was  taken  as  100  and  the  index 
numbers  for  each  week  computed  from  this  as  a  base.  Then  the 
arithmetic  mean  of  the  ten  sets  of  index  numbers  was  computed 
for  each  week;  (for  the  first  year  the  nine  sets  of  index  numbers 
were  averaged).  The  year  is  started  in  each  case  with  the  week 
ending  January  4  to  10,  since  a  week  ending  in  January  i,  2,  or  3 
really  has  a  majority  of  its  days  in  the  preceding  year.  The  result 
of  the  calculation  is  given  in  Table  I. 

From  this  table  of  weekly  index  numbers  of  bond  prices  was 
prepared  one  of  monthly  index  numbers  of  bond  prices.  The 
arithmetic  average  of  the  index  numbers  of  the  four  or  five  weeks 
which  lie  wholly  or  in  a  majority  of  their  days  within  the  month 
was  taken  as  the  index  number  for  the  month.  The  result  of  the 
calculation  is  given  in  Table  II. 


MONEY   AND   BOND   PRICES 


17 


The  yearly  index  numbers  of  bond  prices  were  obtained  by 
taking  the  arithmetic  mean  of  the  52  or  53  index  numbers  for  the 
weeks  which  constitute  the  year.     They  are  given  in  Table  III. 

With  the  movement  of  bond  prices  as  shown  by  the  weekly  index 
numbers  we  shall  first  compare  the  amounts  of  specie  and  legal 


TABLE  I 

Index  Numbers  of  Bond  Prices  on  the  New  York  Stock  Exchange,  Weekly, 
1890-1908.    The  Year  Begins  with  the  Week  Ending — 

(Average  1890-1899=100) 


Week 

Jan.  4 

Jan.  10 

Jan.  9 

Jan.  7 

Jan.  6 

Jan.  s 

Jan.  4 

Jan.  9 

Jan.  8 

Jan.  7 

iSgo 

1891 

1892 

1893 

1894 

1895 

1896 

1897 

1898 

1899 

1. . . . 

99-3 

95.8 

97.6 

98.0 

930 

96.8 

98.4 

99-5 

104.7 

111.7 

2. . . . 

99 

5 

96 

I 

97 

7 

98 

I 

92 

4 

96.5 

98 

I 

100. 1 

105.2 

112 

2 

3 

99 

6 

95 

8 

97 

8 

99 

3 

91 

9 

96.6 

9§ 

2 

100,6 

105.1 

112 

9 

4 

99 

7 

96 

2 

9f 

0 

99 

3 

93 

3 

96.1 

98 

9 

100.8 

ioS-9 

113 

3 

5.... 

99 

7 

96 

5 

98 

6 

99 

7 

93 

3 

94-9 

99 

3 

100.7 

106.6 

113 

0 

6 

99 

5 

96 

0 

9f 

3 

100 

0 

93 

8 

95  I 

99 

7 

100.3 

106.5 

113 

I 

7 

99 

5 

96 

2 

98 

5 

99 

7 

92 

7 

94-8 

100 

8 

100.2 

106.7 

113 

I 

8 

99 

4 

95 

7 

«f 

7 

99 

I 

93 

0 

94-8 

lOI 

0 

99-8 

104.6 

113 

2 

9 

99 

3 

95 

4 

98 

0 

99 

S 

93 

2 

94-4 

100 

9 

100. 1 

105. 1 

112 

5 

10 

99 

4 

95 

8 

98 

2 

9f 

6 

93 

6 

94-4 

100 

3 

98.8 

103.3 

113 

2 

II ... . 

99 

6 

95 

3 

97 

9 

9f 

6 

94 

I 

93-9 

99 

8 

99  I 

103.0 

113 

3 

12 

99 

6 

95 

I 

98 

2 

98 

8 

94 

9 

95.6 

99 

6 

98.3 

102.0 

113 

3 

13 

99 

6 

95 

2 

9f 

I 

98 

4 

96 

2 

95-3 

99 

0 

97.3 

102.2 

113 

6 

14 

99 

2 

95 

0 

98 

4 

99 

0 

97 

2 

95-4 

99 

6 

96.8 

102.4 

113 

3 

IS 

99 

5 

95 

3 

98 

5 

98 

9 

97 

2 

95-4 

99 

4 

96.6 

102.1 

113 

4 

16 

100 

0 

95 

9 

9f 

4 

99 

0 

96 

9 

95-9 

99 

6 

97.0 

100.9 

114 

0 

17 

100 

3 

95 

9 

98 

6 

98 

5 

96 

I 

96.7 

TOO 

9 

97.3 

100.5 

114 

7 

18 

100 

0 

95 

5 

98 

6 

97 

2 

96 

5 

97.3 

TOO 

7 

97.2 

103.3 

114 

6 

19 

100 

3 

95 

I 

99 

0 

97 

2 

95 

6 

98.6 

100 

9 

96.9 

104.1 

114 

7 

20 ... . 

100 

4 

94 

5 

99 

2 

96 

6 

95 

4 

98.2 

lOI 

0 

96.8 

104.1 

114 

8 

21.  .  .  . 

100 

3 

94 

6 

99 

0 

96 

5 

94 

8 

98.4 

100 

9 

96.9 

104.9 

115 

2 

22. .  .  . 

ICX3 

3 

93 

8 

99 

0 

96 

3 

94 

7 

99-5 

100 

6 

97.8 

105. 5 

IIS 

4 

23.... 

100 

2 

93 

7 

98 

7 

95 

I 

95 

I 

99.3 

100 

3 

98.8 

105.7 

IIS 

8 

24 

100 

0 

93 

8 

98 

9 

94 

9 

95 

I 

100. 0 

99 

7 

99-4 

105.9 

IIS 

7 

25.... 

100 

2 

93 

7 

98 

9 

94 

3 

94 

6 

100.6 

100 

6 

99  8 

106.2 

115 

8 

26 

100 

2 

93 

6 

98 

8 

92 

9 

94 

5 

100.2 

100 

4 

100.6 

106.7 

115 

9 

27 

99 

9 

94 

3 

9f 

3 

93 

5 

94 

I 

100. s 

99 

7 

100. s 

106.5 

lis 

7 

28.... 

99 

7 

94 

0 

98 

3 

92 

8 

93 

9 

100.3 

99 

6 

100.8 

106.9 

115 

6 

29 

99 

7 

93 

9 

9^ 

3 

91 

9 

94 

6 

100.3 

97 

3 

101.2 

107.0 

lis 

S 

30 

99 

3 

93 

I 

98 

3 

89 

4 

93 

8 

100.7 

95 

8 

101.8 

107.1 

115 

7 

31 

98 

9 

93 

0 

98 

4 

89 

0 

93 

5 

101 .1 

94 

5 

102.3 

108.0 

lis 

6 

32.... 

«f 

7 

93 

3 

98 

4 

f9 

7 

94 

3 

101.8 

92 

8 

102.5 

108.5 

115 

1 

33 

98 

5 

94 

I 

98 

5 

89 

I 

95 

I 

102.2 

93 

6 

102.3 

108.9 

115 

3 

34 

«f 

4 

94 

4 

''f 

I 

89 

4 

95 

8 

102.0 

93 

6 

102.0 

108.5 

IIS 

5 

35 

98 

2 

94 

9 

98 

0 

91 

3 

95 

9 

103.4 

93 

7 

103. 1 

108. 1 

113 

9 

36.... 

98 

0 

94 

7 

97 

9 

91 

9 

96 

2 

103.2 

94 

9 

103.0 

107. 5 

lis 

0 

37 

97 

9 

95 

2 

97 

4 

91 

8 

96 

0 

102.7 

95 

5 

102.8 

107.3 

114 

7 

38.... 

^^ 

0 

94 

8 

97 

6 

91 

5 

95 

8 

102.4 

95 

2 

102.2 

107.2 

114 

7 

39.... 

98 

0 

94 

I 

98 

2 

91 

2 

95 

8 

102.8 

95 

4 

101.6 

107.2 

113 

8 

40 

97 

3 

94 

4 

98 

6 

90 

5 

95 

5 

102.3 

96 

0 

102.0 

107.4 

113 

7 

41 

96 

8 

95 

I 

^S 

0 

90 

5 

95 

8 

102.3 

95 

7 

101.6 

107.6 

113 

S 

42 

96 

8 

95 

I 

98 

2 

90 

9 

95 

6 

102. 1 

95 

I 

102.0 

107.6 

113 

3 

43 

97 

I 

95 

4 

9f 

0 

92 

7 

95 

8 

101.8 

95 

5 

IOI.9 

107.8 

113 

S 

44 

96 

6 

94 

7 

98 

2 

93 

5 

95 

8 

loi.s 

05 

8 

101.6 

108. 1 

113 

4 

4S 

95 

6 

94 

7 

«! 

I 

94 

5 

96 

8 

100.4 

98 

2 

101.8 

108,4 

113 

3 

46.... 

95 

2 

94 

5 

98 

0 

93 

4 

96 

6 

101.3 

99 

9 

102.2 

108,  s 

113 

3 

47 

95 

9 

94 

8 

98 

0 

94 

4 

97 

I 

100.9 

99 

8 

102.3 

108,8 

113 

6 

48. .  .  . 

94 

6 

95 

0 

97 

9 

94 

7 

96 

9 

101.3 

99 

5 

103.3 

109.3 

113 

4 

49  •••. 

93 

4 

^^ 

I 

97 

7 

94 

I 

97 

2 

101.3 

99 

7 

104.2 

109, 9 

113 

4 

SO.... 

93 

3 

96 

5 

97 

S 

94 

6 

96 

9 

101.4 

99 

6 

104.0 

110.3 

112 

2 

SI.... 

93 

5 

97 

I 

97 

3 

93 

0 

96 

9 

99  7 

99 

3 

104.0 

110.3 

110 

2 

S2.... 

95 

2 

97 

4 

97 

6 

91 

6 

96 

5 

97.9 

99 

5 

104.1 

110.9 

112 

0 

S3 

94  9 

99 

3 

i8 


MONEY  AND  PRICES 
TABLE  I— Continued 


Week 

Jan.  6 

Jan.  s 

Jan.  4 

Jan.  xo 

Jan.  9 

Jan.  7 

Jan.  6 

Jan.  s 

Jan.  4 

1900 

1901 

1902 

1903 

1904 

1 90s 

1906 

1907 

1908 

I 

112. 3 

117-9 

118.8 

1x6.9 

114-3 

117.3 

X16.9 

112.9 

105.6 

3   .  .  .  . 

1X2. 2 

117. 8 

118.7 

X17  3 

114.2 

117-5 

117. 0 

112. 9 

106.4 

3 

112.9 

117-S 

1x8.6 

117. 2 

1x4-9 

117-9 

117. 1 

113.0 

107.3 

4 

113-9 

n8.o 

XX9-3 

1x6.3 

1x4.7 

X17.7 

1x6.8 

113  0 

107,8 

S 

II4-3 

118. 0 

XX9.6 

X16.9 

X14  5 

XX7.8 

116.7 

112. 8 

109,1 

6.... 

114.8 

118. 7 

119  s 

117. 0 

1x4.x 

1x8. 0 

116. 5 

112.6 

108,1 

7 

114.6 

ii8.8 

119  S 

1x6. 9 

1x4.2 

1x8. X 

116. 4 

112.2 

107.9 

8.... 

114. 1 

118.3 

119  s 

1x6.7 

X13  6 

1x8. 0 

116.4 

112. 1 

107.3 

Q 

114. 1 

118.8 

1x9  5 

1x6.1 

113  6 

118.1 

115-7 

111.8 

106.1 

lO 

114-3 

118.7 

119.7 

IIS  9 

1x3-6 

117-9 

115-7 

IXX.O 

106.4 

11 

114. 2 

118.7 

119-7 

nS-8 

113  5 

1x7-7 

lis  4 

XXO.  2 

106.2 

12    .... 

H4-S 

118. 9 

120.  X 

1X5-8 

113-6 

1x8.x 

IIS  3 

XO9.8 

ioS-9 

13 

114-9 

118. 9 

X20,  X 

115-2 

113-7 

1X7-9 

115-4 

109.0 

106.0 

14 

iiS-o 

1x8. 8 

X20.0 

114-5 

1x40 

1x7-9 

IIS-I 

108.9 

106.5 

IS 

IIS. 3 

118. 6 

X20.0 

1x4.6 

114.0 

1X7-8 

114.9 

109,9 

106.8 

i6 

iiS-i 

118.4 

120.3 

115-2 

1x4.2 

117-6 

114.8 

109,9 

107.1 

17 

1150 

118. s 

120.  I 

115-2 

1x4.4 

II7-5 

114-3 

1x0,5 

107.4 

i8  . . . . 

iiS-O 

1x8. 5 

120.x 

iiS-6 

1x4.4 

1x7-5 

114.2 

110,5 

107.6 

19 

114.4 

X17-9 

X20.  2 

iiS-9 

114.7 

117-7 

114.1 

110,4 

107.6 

30 

114-2 

117. 9 

119.9 

liS-4 

114-3 

1x7-7 

114-4 

109-9 

107.8 

31   .... 

114  3 

1x8.0 

119  7 

115. 2 

114-3 

117-6 

114-6 

109,8 

107.9 

33 

114.0 

1x8.0 

XX9.8 

115.3 

114. 2 

117.4 

114. 5 

109-5 

107 -5 

S3 

114.2 

1X8.2 

1x9. 8 

114.7 

114.4 

117-4 

II4-S 

109,2 

107.8 

34  ...  . 

113-8 

X19.0 

1x9. 8 

114-7 

114-7 

117-3 

114. 6 

109.0 

107.4 

35 

113s 

xig.o 

1x9.7 

114-3 

114-9 

117-3 

1x4.6 

108.7 

107-4 

36  ...  . 

113-4 

1x8,8 

H9.8 

114. 0 

iiS-i 

IX7-X 

114-S 

108,9 

107-4 

37 

113-3 

1x8.6 

1x9.6 

113-7 

llS-4 

1x7.x 

114-S 

108,5 

108,1 

38  ...  . 

113  8 

1x8.0 

II9-S 

113  3 

115-4 

1x7-1 

114-4 

108,9 

107,4 

39 

114.0 

117. 8 

1x9. 6 

113   I 

IIS  9 

1x7.2 

114-4 

108,7 

107,6 

30  — 

113  9 

1x7.6 

119-S 

XX2.9 

iiS-8 

117-3 

114.2 

108,7 

108.2 

31  .... 

113  8 

1x7.6 

1x9-4 

112. 5 

116.0 

117-4 

114.0 

108,7 

108.4 

32  — 

113-8 

117-S 

119.2 

1x2.7 

llS-9 

1X7-3 

113-9 

108,5 

109,0 

33 

114.0 

117.7 

xxg.o 

112.3 

115-8 

117.6 

113  8 

107,8 

xo8,7 

34 

113  9 

117-S 

1x8.8 

112. 2 

iiS-8 

117.7 

113-7 

107.8 

108,9 

35  .  •  •  • 

113.9 

1x7-9 

1x8. 8 

1X2.8 

lxS-9 

1x7.2 

113  6 

107.4 

108,8 

36  ... . 

114.0 

117-7 

1x8.7 

113    0 

116.1 

1x7.2 

113-4 

107.2 

109,4 

37 

114.7 

117-7 

1x8.5 

II3-3 

1X6.2 

XX7.2 

1131 

107.1 

109.  S 

38  ... . 

II3-7 

117-7 

1x8.3 

1X2. 8 

1x6.1 

117-3 

112-7 

107.1 

109,4 

39 

II3S 

1x7.6 

117. 2 

112.3 

116.0 

117-2 

112.7 

107.4 

109.4 

40 

113-4 

117-3 

1x8.5 

1X2. Q 

X16.0 

1x7.2 

1130 

107.1 

109.3 

41 

113  6 

117-6 

X18.1 

1x2.9 

116. 2 

117  3 

1x3  2 

107.0 

109  5 

43  ...  . 

113.6 

117-9 

XI7-9 

113  8 

116.2 

"7-3 

113-3 

106.6 

109.7 

43 

114.2 

1x8. 0 

xxS.o 

1x4.x 

1x6. 3 

1x7.2 

113-2 

105 -7 

109-9 

44 

114. 1 

1x8.0 

1x8. X 

X13-8 

X16.S 

1X7-4 

113-1 

105,2 

no. 5 

45 

114.6 

1x8.2 

X17.8 

1x3-3 

1x6.5 

1x7.2 

1130 

104,8 

no. 7 

46  ...  . 

IIS  6 

Il8.2 

1X7-7 

1x3-7 

116. 7 

XX7.0 

112.8 

104,1 

1x0.9 

47 

115-3 

1x8.5 

117.6 

XX3-6 

1x6.4 

1x6.8 

113.3 

102,4 

III  .1 

48  ...  . 

116. 1 

1x8.5 

X17-7 

1x3.8 

1x6.8 

116.9 

113.6 

102,7 

111.3 

49 

116.6 

1x8.x 

XX7-3 

1140 

116.9 

116.7 

113-4 

104.1 

1X1.6 

SO 

116. 8 

1x7-9 

117-3 

X14.0 

116.9 

1x6.9 

113  0 

104-3 

XXX. 9 

SI 

117. 1 

1x7  9 

xx6.8 

X14.1 

117. 1 

1x6.7 

112. 8 

103-8 

III. 6 

S2 

117. 5 

118-3 

1x6.8 

114-I 

117-3 

1x6.7 

112.3 

104 -I 

111.8 

S3 

X16.8 

112.1 

tenders  in  the  New  York  .Clearing  House  banks  for  the  same 
period.  These  figures  were  taken  from  the  publications  of  the 
National  Monetary  Commission/  In  a  few  years  in  which  there 
should  have  been  given  53  weekly  statements  of  the  Clearing  House, 
one  weekly  statement  was  omitted  and  had  to  be  suppUed  from  the 
files  of  the  Commercial  and  Financial  Chronicle.    As  is  well  known, 


^  Statistics  for  the  United  Slates,  1867-1909,  pp. 
Andrew  (Washington,  19 10). 


-118.     Compiled  by  A.  Piatt 


MONEY  AND  BOND  PRICES 


19 


these  statements  give  for  each  week  the  average  amount  held  for 
that  week  in  the  combined  statement  for  all  of  the  banks  that 
belong  to  the  Clearing  House.     It  is  recognized  that  the  figures 


TABLE  II 

Index  Numbers  of  Bond  Prices  on  the  New  York  Stock  Exchange, 

Monthly,  1890-1908 

(Average  1890-1899  =  100) 


Month 

January 

February .... 

March 

April 

May 

June 

July 

August 

September . . . 

October 

November . . . 
December. . . 


1890 


1893 


1894 


1895 


1896 


1897 


1898 


1899 


99 
99 
99 
99 
100 
100 
99 
98 
98 
96 
95 
94 


98 


98.7 
99.6 


96.2 
94.8 
94.8 
95  9 
98.4 

100. 0 
100.6 
102.4 
X02.8 
102.0 

lOI.O 

100. 1 


100 
99 
100 
100 
100 
97 
93 
95 
95 
99 
99 


100.3 

100.3 

98.7 

96.9 

97  o 

99  3 

loi  .1 

102.3 

102.  s 

101.9 

102.0 

103.9 


105.2 
106.1 
103.1 
101.  s 
104.1 
106.0 
106.9 
108.4 
107.3 
107.6 
108.5 
no. I 


112. 5 

1131 
113a 
113-9 
114.9 
115-8 
1156 
115.1 

114. 6 
ii3S 
113-4 
112.0 


Month 

January 

February 

March 

April 

May 

June 

July 

August 

September 

October 

November 

December 


113 
114 
114 
lis 
114 
113 
113 
113 
114 
113 
115 
117 


190X 


117.8 
118. 7 
118.8 
n8.6 
118.1 
118.8 
117.9 
117.7 
117.7 
117-8 
118.4 
118.1 


119 
119 
119 
120 
119 
119 
119 
119 
118 
118 
117 
"7 


1903 


116.9 
116.9 
115-9 
114.9 
IIS-S 
114.8 
113-4 
112.4 

112.8 
113-2 

113  6 
114.0 


1904 


114-S 
114.1 
113-6 
114. 2 
114.4 
114.7 
115-6 
115-9 
116.1 
116.2 
116. 6 
117. 1 


1905 


117.6 
118.0 
117-9 
117-7 
117.6 
117-3 
117.2 
117-4 
117.2 
117-3 
117.1 
116.8 


1906 


116. 9 
116.3 
115-5 
114.8 
114-4 
114.6 
114-4 
113-8 
113-0 
113-2 
113-2 
112.9 


1907 


112.9 

112.2 
IIO.O 
109.8 

no.o 
109.0 
108.7 
107.9 
107.2 
106.3 
103 -5 
104.x 


1908 


107.3 
107.4 
106. 1 
X07.1 
107.7 
107.  S 
107.9 
108.9 
109.4 
109.9 

IXI.O 

XXI. 8 


TABLE  III 

Index  Numbers  of  Bond  Prices  on  the  New  York  Stock  Exchange, 

Yearly,  1890-1908 

(Average  1890-1899  =  100) 


1892 

1893 

1804 


95 


189s 
1896 
1897 
1898 
180Q 


99-1 

98.4 

100.6 

106.3 

114. o 


1900 
1901 
1902 
1903 
1904 


114 

4 

118 

2 

118 

9 

114 

5 

115 

2 

1905 

1906 

1907 

1908 


117. 4 

114. 4 

108. 5 
108.  s 


are  not  strictly  comparable  throughout  the  period,  for  the  number 
of  banks  varies  from  66  to  48;  the  larger  number  applies  to  the 
earlier  years.     The  decline  in  the  number  of  banks  is  no  doubt  due, 


20 


MONEY  AND  PRICES 


generally,  to  consolidation,  and  so  in  most  cases  is  merely  nominal. 
But  even  granting  that  some  of  the  changes  in  numbers  represent 
real  changes  in  the  banking  area  covered  by  the  statistics,  yet  the 
reports  give  us,  of  all  available  statistics,  by  far  the  most  reliable 
figures  for  changes  in  the  amount  of  money  in  any  financial  center 
of  the  United  States. 

The  results  obtained  by  comparing  the  movement  of  bond  prices 
with  that  of  specie  and  legal  tenders  for  various  weeks  are  given 

in  Table  IV. 

TABLE  IV 

CORRESPO>fDENCE  OF  THE  MOVEMENT  OF  BOND  PRICES  ON  THE  NeW  YoRK    StOCK 

Exchange,  Weekly,  1890-1908,  with  the  Movement  of  the  Amount  of 
Specie  and  Legal  Tenders  in  the  New  York  Clearing  House  Banks 


Movement  of  Specte  and  Legal  Tenders  por 


Correspondence 


Degree 


Third  week  previous . . 
Second  week  previous. 

Previous  week 

Same  week 

Following  week 

Second  week  following 


466 
481 
527 
495 
487 
452 


389 
373 
330 
362 

372 
405 


134 
136 

134 
134 
132 

134 


+  .078 
+  .109 
+  .199 
+  •134 
+  .116 
+  •047 


The  highest  degree  of  correspondence  is  revealed  when  we  com- 
pare the  movement  of  the  bond  prices  with  the  movement  of  specie 
and  legal  tenders  for  the  previous  week.  The  result  may  be  put  in 
another  way,  namely,  that  during  the  period  considered,  in  60  out  of 
100  cases,  a  movement  in  the  amount  of  specie  and  legal  tenders  was 
followed  the  next  week  by  a  movement  of  bond  prices  in  the  same 
direction. 

So  much  has  been  written  of  bank  deposits  as  currency,  that  it 
will  be  of  interest  to  see  whether  any  relation  exists  between  their 
movement  and  the  movement  of  bond  prices.  As  in  the  previous 
case,  the  figures  for  the  net  deposits  of  the  New  York  Clearing 
House  banks  are  taken  from  the  publications  of  the  National 
Monetary  Commission,'  with  omissions  supplied  from  the  Commer- 
cial and  Financial  Chronicle.  Comparing  the  two  movements  at 
varying  intervals  we  obtain  the  results  found  in  Table  V. 

^  Statistics  for  the  United  States,  1867-1909,  pp.  98-118. 


MONEY  AND   BOND  PRICES 


21 


Here  the  greatest  correspondence  is  for  the  same  week;  for  the 

period  covered,  in  about  6i  cases  out  of  loo  the  two  movements 

correspond.     Slightly  more  correspondence  is  seen  in  the  weeks 

following  than  for  the  weeks  preceding,  showing  that  there  are  more 

cases  in  which  a  change  in  the  bond  price  movement  was  followed 

by  a  corresponding  change  in  net  deposits  than  there  are  cases  in 

which  a  change  in  net  deposits  is  followed  by  a  corresponding 

change  in  bond  prices. 

TABLE  V 

Correspondence  of  the  Movement  of  Bond  Prices  on  the  New  York  Stock 

Exchange,  Weekly,  1890-1908,  with  the  Movement  of  Net 

Deposits  in  the  New  York  Clearing  House  Banks 


MOVEBfENT  OF  NeT  DEPOSITS  FOR 


Correspondence 


+ 


Degree 


Second  week  previous . 

Previous  week 

Same  week 

Following  week 

Second  week  following 


460 
S16 
533 
531 
491 


401 
340 
323 
327 
367 


129 

135 
13s 
133 
'^33 


+  .060 
+  .178 
+  .  212 
+  .  206 
+  .125 


From  the  weekly  figures  for  specie  and  legal  tenders  and  for 
net  deposits  the  monthly  figures  were  derived  by  taking  the  average 
of  the  amounts  for  the  four  or  five  weeks  which  lie  wholly  or  for 
most  part  within  the  month.     The  comparison  of  the  movement 

TABLE  VI 

Correspondence  of  the  Movement  of  Bond  Prices  on  the  New  York  Stock 

Exchange,  Monthly,  1890-1908,  with  the  Movement  of  Specie  and 

Legal  Tenders  in  the  New  York  Clearing  House  Banks 


Movement  of  Specie  and  Legal  Tenders  for 

Correspondence 

+ 

- 

0 

Degree 

Previous  month 

120 

131 
108 

94 

84 
107 

12 
12 
12 

+  .IIS 
+  .207 
+  .004 

Same  month 

Following  month 

of  these  figures  for  specie  and  legal  tenders  with  the  movement 
of  the  monthly  index  number  of  bond  prices  gives  Table  VI.  In 
this  case  there  appears  to  be  a  fair  amount  of  correspondence  for 


22 


MONEY  AND   PRICES 


the  same  month  and  considerably  more  for  the  previous  month 
than  for  the  following  month. 

The  monthly  movement  of  net  deposits  shows  the  correspond- 
ence with  the  movement  of  bond  prices  at  varying  intervals  noted 
in  Table  VII.  We  find  for  this  comparison  the  same  general  results 
as  in  the  comparison  of  the  weekly  movements  of  these  same  two 
sets  of  figures,  but  here  the  correspondence  is  higher. 

TABLE  VII 

Correspondence  of  the  Movements  of  Bond  Prices  on  the  New  York  Stock 

Exchange,  Monthly,  1890-1908,  with  the  Movement  of  Net 

Deposits  in  the  New  York  Clearing  House  Banks 


Correspondence 

Movement  of  Net  Deposits  for 

+ 

- 

0 

Degree 

Previous  month 

121 
148 
127 

93 
67 
88 

12 
12 
12 

+  .124 

Same  month           

+  ■357 

Following  month 

+  •172 

The  month  is  the  shortest  interval  at  which  we  have  estimates 
made  of  the  amount  of  money  in  circulation  in  the  United  States. 
The  pubhcations  of  the  National  Monetary  Commission'  give 
estimates  of  the  amount  of  money  in  circulation  on  the  first  day  of 
each  month.  A  figure  for  the  circulation  for  the  month  was  found 
by  taking  the  average  of  the  estimates  for  the  first  of  the  month  and 
for  the  first  of  the  following  month,  e.g.,  the  amount  of  money  in 
circulation  in  January  was  taken  as  the  average  of  the  amounts  in 
circulation  on  January  i  and  February  i.  The  New  York  bond 
market  is  in  a  sense  a  national  market,  so  we  may  compare  the 
movement  of  bond  prices  with  the  amount  of  money  in  circulation 
as  calculated  by  the  above  method  (see  Table  VIII). 

The  highest  degree  of  correspondence  is  that  with  the  money 
in  circulation  for  the  previous  month.  For  this  period  in  58  out  of 
100  cases  a  change  in  the  amount  of  money  in  circulation  was  fol- 
lowed by  a  similar  movement  in  bond  prices  the  next  month.  Less 
correspondence  is  shown  here  than  was  obtained  when  the  com- 
parison was  with  specie  and  legal  tenders  or  with  net  deposits  in  the 
New  York  Clearing  House  banks. 

^  Statistics  for  the  United  States,  1867-1909,  pp.  161-64. 


MONEY   AND   BOND   PRICES 


23 


Yearly  averages  are  given  in  the  publications  of  the  National 
Monetary  Commission^  for  the  amounts  of  specie  and  legal  tenders 
and  net  deposits  in  the  New  York  Clearing  House  banks.     These 

TABLE  VIII 

Correspondence  of  the  Movement  of  Bond  Prices  on  the  New  York  Stock 

Exchange,  Monthly,  1890-1908,  with  the  Movement  of  the  Amount 

OF  Money  in  Circulation  in  the  United  States 


Correspondence 

+ 

- 

0 

Degree 

Second  month  previous 

117 
123 

IIS 
98 

92 

87 
96 

113 

16 
16 
16 
16 

+  .III 

Previous  month 

+   159 
+  .084 

Same  month 

Following  month 

-.066 

TABLE  IX 

Correspondence  of  the  Movement  of  Bond  Prices  on  the  New  York  Stock 

Exchange,  Yearly,  1890-1908,  with  the  Movement  of  the  Amount  op 

Specie  and  Legal  Tenders  in  the  New  York  Clearing  House  Banks 


MovEJiENT  or  Specie  and  Legal  Tenders  for 


Correspondence 


Degree 


Previous  year 

Same  year 

Following  year 

Second  year  following 


13 

4 

12 


5 

4 

13 

5 


+  .389 
+  ■500 
—  .500 
+  •389 


TABLE  X 

Correspondence  of  the  Movement  of  Bond  Prices  on  the  New  York  Stock 

Exchange,  Yearly,  1890-1908,  with  the  Movement  of  Net 

Deposits  in  the  New  York  Clearing  House  Banks 


Movement  of  Net  Deposits  for 


Correspondence 


Degree 


Previous  year . 
Same  year .  .  .  . 
Following  year 


14 
6 


+  .278 
+  .611 
-.278 


averages  are  compared  with  the  yearly  bond  prices  in  Tables  IX 
and  X.  The  table  shows  a  high  degree  of  positive  correspond- 
ence for  the  same  year  and  an  equally  high  degree  of  negative 

^  Ibid,  pp.  98-118. 


24  MONEY   AND   PRICES 

correspondence  for  the  following  year.  In  other  words,  in  the  pro- 
portion of  75  out  of  ICO  cases  the  two  moved  together,  and  in  the 
proportion  of  75  out  of  100  cases  a  movement  of  bond  prices  in 
one  direction  was  followed  the  next  year  by  a  movement  of  specie 
and  legal  tenders  in  the  opposite  direction.  Of  course,  where  the 
number  of  cases  considered  is  so  small  there  may  be  a  large 
element  of  chance  in  the  results.  The  correspondence  for  the 
same  year  is  high.  In  the  proportion  of  81  out  of  100  cases,  the 
movement  is  in  the  same  direction. 

With  the  yearly  movement  of  bond  prices  we  compare  both  the 
movement  of  the  total  circulation  of  money  and  the  movement  of 
the  per  capita  circulation  of  money.  For  the  latter  figures  we  take 
the  estimates  for  July  i ,  as  given  in  the  publications  of  the  National 
Monetary  Commission.^  July  i  is  the  mid-point  of  the  year,  and 
so  may  be  taken  as  the  figure  for  the  year.  One  change  has  been 
made  in  the  figures  as  given  by  the  National  Monetary  Commission. 
The  figures  given  are  the  estimates  of  the  Director  of  the  Mint. 
As  is  known  these  are  prepared  by  starting  with  the  estimate  of  the 
previous  year  and  adding  an  amount  which  represents  new  coins 
and  bills  and  importations,  and  subtracting  an  amount  which 
represents  coins  melted  and  exported  and  bills  retired,  and  adding 
or  subtracting  the  net  movement  out  from  or  into  the  Treasury. 
As  the  result  of  a  special  investigation,  the  Director  of  the  Mint 
subtracted  $135,000,000  from  the  estimate  for  July  i,  1907,  to 
cover  mistakes  which  had  been  made  previously.  This  subtraction 
makes  no  difference  in  our  calculation  of  the  movement  of  total 
circulation,  for  after  subtracting  this  amount  there  is  an  increase 
over  the  previous  year.  However,  it  does  make  a  difference  in  the 
per  capita  circulation.  In  order  to  get  figures  strictly  comparable, 
therefore,  an  amount  for  per  capita  circulation  was  calculated  for 
1907  to  be  used  in  comparison  with  1906  by  adding  $135,000,000 
to  the  total  circulation  on  July  i,  1907,  and  dividing  by  the  figure 
for  the  estimated  population  of  the  United  States  on  that  date 
which  was  used  by  the  Director  of  the  Mint.^  For  the  comparison 
of  1907  with  1908  the  revised  figure  was  used. 

'  Slaiistics  for  the  United  States,  1867-1909,  p.  155. 
'Statistical  Abstract  for  the  United  Stales  for  191 1,  p.  580. 


MONEY   AND   BOND   PRICES 


2S 


For  the  period  covered  by  the  index  numbers  of  bond  prices, 
the  movement  of  total  circulation  and  per  capita  circulation  is 
exactly  the  same,  so  that  one  correspondence  table  will  suffice  for 
both  (Table  XI). 

TABLE  XI 

Correspondence  of  the  Movement  of  Bond  Prices  on  the  New  York  Stock 
Exchange,  Yearly,   1890-1908,  with  the  Movement  of  Total  Circula- 
tion AND  also  Per  Capita  Circulation  of  Money  in  the  United  States 


Movement  of  Total  and  Per  Capita 
Circulation  for 


Correspondence 


Degree 


Previous  year . 
Same  year .  .  .  . 
Following  year 


13 
9 


+  .278 

+  .500 
+  .056 


It  is  scarcely  necessary  to  point  out  the  small  number  of  cases 
considered  and  the  consequent  element  of  chance  which  enters 
into  the  calculation.  With  this  reservation  we  may  say  that  there 
is  a  high  degree  of  correspondence  shown  for  the  same  year. 

To  sum  up:  The  degree  of  correspondence  has  been  computed 
between  the  movements  of  the  index  numbers  of  bond  prices  on  the 
New  York  Stock  Exchange  from  1890  to  1908  and  the  movement 
of  specie  and  legal  tenders  and  of  net  deposits  in  the  New  York 
Clearing  House  banks  and  the  movement  of  the  total  and  per  capita 
circulation  of  money  in  the  United  States.  Three  computations 
are  made  in  the  comparison  with  the  movement  of  specie  and  legal 
tenders  and  with  the  movement  of  net  deposits  using  weekly, 
monthly,  and  yearly  averages.  For  the  comparison  with  the  total 
circulation  of  money  both  monthly  and  yearly  averages  are  used. 
Only  yearly  averages  are  employed  in  the  comparison  with  the 
per  capita  circulation  of  money. 

In  all,  nine  computations  of  the  Degree  of  Correspondence  are 
made.  Of  these  nine,  the  highest  are  those  which  arise  from  the 
comparison  of  the  yearly  movements  of  the  index  numbers  of  bond 
prices  with  the  various  movements  of  money  in  banks  and  in  circu- 
lation and  the  movement  of  net  deposits  in  banks.  The  maximum 
Degree  of  Correspondence  shown  is  that  of  the  movement  of  the 


26  MONEY  AND   PRICES 

yearly  index  number  of  bond  prices  with  the  yearly  changes  in  the 
amount  of  net  deposits  in  the  New  York  Clearing  House  banks. 
This  maximum  correspondence  indicates  that  in  the  proportion 
of  8i  out  of  loo  cases,  the  two  movements  agreed  in  the  direction 
of  their  changes.  Even  this  maximum  observed  correspondence 
is  far  from  being  complete.  Still,  sufficient  correspondence  is 
shown  to  favor  J.  F.  Johnson's  view  that  bond  prices  adjust  them- 
selves fairly  readily  to  price  changes,  rather  than  Irving  Fisher's 
view  that  bond  prices  are  in  the  class  of  prices  which  are  the  last 
to  be  affected  in  price  changes.  In  six  of  the  cases  considered,  the 
correspondence  of  the  movement  of  the  index  numbers  of  bond 
prices  is  greatest  when  the  comparison  is  made  with  the  movement 
of  specie  and  legal  tenders,  net  deposits,  total  circulation  of  money, 
or  per  capita  circulation  of  money  for  the  same  week,  month,  or 
year,  as  the  case  may  be.  In  these  cases,  therefore,  no  element  of 
lag  is  shown. 

In  the  comparison  of  the  weekly  and  monthly  bond  price  move- 
ment with  the  movement  of  net  deposits,  the  correspondence  with 
the  movement  of  net  deposits  for  the  following  week  or  month  is 
higher  than  with  the  m.ovement  for  the  preceding  week  or  month. 
The  conclusion  is  that  changes  in  the  amount  of  net  deposits  have 
more  frequently  adjusted  themselves  to  bond  prices  than  bond  prices 
have  adjusted  themselves  to  the  amount  of  net  deposits.  When  we 
test  the  relationship  between  bond  price  movement  and  the  move- 
ment of  specie  and  legal  tenders,  total  and  per  capita  circulation  of 
money,  and  the  yearly  averages  of  net  deposits,  we  find  that  the 
correspondence  is  greater  when  the  comparison  is  between  the  bond 
price  movement  and  the  movement  of  the  other  terms  of  the  com- 
parison for  a  preceding  week,  month,  or  year  than  when  it  is  for  a 
following  week,  month,  or  year.  From  this  circumstance  we  con- 
clude that  there  is  more  causal  influence  from  the  specie  and  legal 
tenders,  total  and  per  capita  circulation  of  money,  and  the  yearly 
average  of  net  deposits  to  the  bond  prices  than  there  is  in  the  reverse 
direction. 

We  infer  from  the  degree  of  correspondence  shown  that  consider- 
able allowance  must  be  made  for  "other  things"  not  "being  equal," 
especially  in  the  weekly  and  monthly  comparisons. 


MONEY   AND   STOCK  PRICES 


27 


III.      MONEY   AND   STOCK   PRICES 

Professor  Mitchell  has  compiled  an  index  number  of  stock 
prices  on  the  New  York  Stock  Exchange,  monthly  and  yearly, 
from  1890  to  1909/  The  average  price  of  the  stocks  from  1890 
to  1899  is  taken  as  the  base.  The  prices  of  forty  stocks  are  included : 
thirty-five  are  the  common  stocks  of  railroads  and  the  other  five 
are  the  stocks  of  express,  steamship,  and  telegraph  companies.  An 
index  number  for  the  high  and  the  low  price  for  each  month  is 
given.  For  the  purpose  of  testing  the  correspondence  with  the 
movement  of  the  volume  of  money,  the  mean  of  these  high  and  low 
quotations  was  taken  as  the  index  nvimber  for  the  month.  We 
compare  first  the  monthly  stock  price  movement  and  the  figures 
for  the  monthly  averages  of  specie  and  legal  tenders  in  the  New  York 
Clearing  House  banks  derived  as  was  explained  above. 

TABLE  XII 

Correspondence  of  the  Movement  of  Stock  Prices  on  the  New  York  Stock 
Exchange  (Mitchell's  Index  Numbers),  Monthly,  1890-1909,  with  the 
Movement  of  the  Amount  of  Specie  and  Legal  Tenders  in  the  New  York 
Clearing  House  Banks 


Movement  of  Specie  and  Legal  Tenders  for 

Correspondence 

+ 

- 

0 

Degree 

Second  month  previous 

Previous  month 

120 
119 
119 
130 

104 

108 
no 
III 

99 
124 

9 
9 
9 
9 
9 

+  .051 
+  .038 

Same  month 

+  .033 

Following  month 

+  •130 

Second  month  following 

—  .084 

In  general  it  is  seen  that  little  correspondence  is  shown.  The 
greatest  correspondence  is  in  the  case  which  indicates  that  a  move- 
ment in  stock  prices  was,  in  about  57  times  out  of  100,  followed  the 
next  month  by  a  corresponding  movement  in  the  amount  of  specie 
and  legal  tenders  in  the  banks. 

We  next  take  the  comparison  of  the  monthly  stock  prices  with 
the  movement  of  net  deposits  in  the  New  York  Clearing  House 
banks  as  shown  by  the  figures  derived  as  was  explained  above. 

'  "The  Prices  of  American  Stocks,  1890-1909,"  The  Journal  of  Political  Economy, 
XVIII  (May,  1910),  345-80. 


28 


MONEY  AND   PRICES 


TABLE  XIII 

Correspondence  of  the  Movement  of  Stock  Prices  on  the  New  York  Stock 

Exchange  (Mitchell's  Index  Numbers),  Monthly,  1890-1909,  with  the 

Movement  of  Net  Deposits  of  the  New  York  Clearing  House  Banks 


Movement  of  Net  Deposits  for 


Correspondence 


+ 


Degree 


Previous  month 

Same  month 

Following  month 

Second  month  following 


127 
132 
136 
127 


93 

lOI 


+  .105 
+  .142 
+  .181 
+ .  no 


The  correspondence  exhibited  here  is  considerably  higher  than 
that  shown  in  the  preceding  case  and  here  again  the  greatest  cor- 
respondence is  shown  with  the  month  following.  In  59  out  of 
100  cases  the  movement  in  stock  prices  is  followed  by  a  correspond- 
ing movement  in  net  deposits. 

As  in  the  case  of  bond  prices,  we  may  compare  the  movement 
of  stock  prices  with  the  movement  of  the  total  money  in  circulation 
in  the  United  States,  since  the  whole  country  buys  in  the  New 
York  market. 

TABLE  XIV 

Correspondence  of  the  Movement  of  Stock  Prices  on  the  New  York  Stock 

Exchange  (Mitchell's  Index  Numbers),  Monthly,  1890-1909,  with  the 

Movement  of  the  Total  Circulation  of  Money  in  the  United  States 


Correspondence 

+ 

- 

0 

Degree 

Previous  month 

1x8 
121 
122 
114 

107 

105 
104 
112 

13 
13 
13 
13 

+  .046 

Same  month 

+  .067 

Following  month 

+  ■075 

Second  month  following 

+  .008 

Very  little  correspondence  is  shown.  As  was  true  of  the  two 
preceding  cases,  the  greatest  amount  of  correspondence  comes  in  the 
comparison  with  the  following  month. 

We  compare  next  the  yearly  movement  of  stock  prices  with  the 
movement  of  the  yearly  averages  of  the  amounts  of  specie  and 


MONEY   AND   STOCK  PRICES 


29 


legal  tenders  and  of  net  deposits  in  the  New  York  Clearing  House 
banks. 

TABLE  XV 

Correspondence  of  the  Movement  of  Stock  Prices  on  the  New  York  Stock 
Exchange  (Mitchell's  Index  Numbers),  Yearly,  1890-1909,  with  the 
Movement  of  the  Amount  of  Specie  and  Legal  Tenders  in  the  New  York 
Clearing  House  Banks 


Movement  of  Specie  and  Legal  Tenders  for 


Correspondence 


Degree 


Second  year  previous 

Previous  year 

Same  year 

Following  year 


9 
14 


+  .474 
+  .158 
—  .III 


The  correspondence  with  the  previous  year  is  highest.  In  the 
proportion  of  74  out  of  100  cases,  a  movement  in  specie  and  legal 
tenders  in  one  year  was  followed  by  a  corresponding  movement  in 
stock  prices  the  next  year. 

TABLE  XVI 

Correspondence  of  the  Movement  of  Stock  Prices  on  the  New  York  Stock 

Exchange   (Mitchell's   Index  Numbers),  Yearly,    1890-1909,   with   the 

Movement  of  Net  Deposits  in  the  New  York  Clearing  House  Banks 


Movement  of  Net  Deposits  for 


Correspondence 


Degree 


Second  year  previous 

Previous  year 

Same  year 

Following  year 


16 

II 

6 


10 
3 


— .  Ill 

+  .684 
+  .158 
-■333 


The  correspondence  of  the  movement  of  stock  prices  with  the 
movement  of  net  deposits  for  the  previous  year  is  high.  In  the 
proportion  of  84  cases  out  of  100  a  movement  of  net  deposits  was 
followed  by  a  corresponding  movement  in  stock  prices  the  next 
year.  However,  there  are  scarcely  enough  cases  to  make  it  safe 
to  generalize. 

Mitchell's  yearly  index  numbers  of  stock  prices  give  the  follow- 
ing tables  when  compared  with  the  total  circulation  and  also  the 


30 


MONEY   AND   PRICES 


per  capita  circulation  of  the  United  States  obtained  as  indicated 
above. 

TABLE  XVII 

Correspondence  of  the  Movement  of  Stock  Prices  on  the  New  York  Stock 

Exchange  (Mitchell's  Index  Numbers),  Yearly,  1890-1909,  with  the 

Total  Circulation  of  Money  in  the  United  States 


Movement  of  Total  Circulation  for 


Correspondence 


Degree 


Second  year  previous 

Previous  year 

Same  year 

Following  year 


II 

7 
7 
9 


-.158 
+  .263 
+  .263 
+  053 


A  fair  degree  of  correspondence  is  indicated  for  the  previous 
year  and  for  the  same  year.  The  correspondence  is  the  same  for 
both  cases. 

TABLE  XVIII 

Correspondence  of  the  Movement  of  Stock  Prices  on  the  New  York  Stock 
Exchange  (Mitchell's  Index  Numbers),  Yearly,  1890-1909,  and  the  Move- 
ment OF  Per  Capita  Circulation  of  Money  in  the  United  States 


Movement  of  Per  Capita  Circulation  for 


Correspondence 


Degree 


Second  year  previous 

Previous  year 

Same  year 

Following  year 


9 
12 
12 

9 


10 

7 

7 

10 


-053 
+  .263 
+  .263 
-053 


The  greatest  correspondence  is  the  same  here  as  in  Table  XVII, 
the  previous  year  and  the  same  year  having  a  fair  degree  of  corre- 
spondence. 

Commons  and  Stone  prepared  for  the  Industrial  Commission 
a  yearly  index  number  of  the  prices  of  28  railroad  stocks  for  the 
years  ending  June  30,  1879-1901.^  Since  the  fiscal  year  is  used 
instead  of  the  calendar  year,  we  must  compare  the  movement 
with  the  total  and  per  capita  circulation  of  money  for  January  i 

'  Report  of  the  United  States  Industrial  Commission,  XIX,  29. 


MONEY  AND   STOCK  PRICES 


31 


instead  of  July  i ,  as  in  the  former  cases.  The  figures  for  January  i , 
1879,  were  obtained  from  the  Monthly  Summary  of  Commerce  and 
Finance.^  The  total  circulation  for  the  other  years  was  taken  from 
the  publications  of  the  National  Monetary  Commission.'  The 
figures  for  the  per  capita  circulation  were  obtained  by  taking  the 
arithmetic  means  of  the  amounts  for  the  June  30  preceding  and  the 
June  30  following.  The  comparisons  of  these  figures  with  the 
stock  price  movement  is  given  in  Table  XIX. 

TABLE  XIX 

Correspondence  of  the  Movement  of  Stock  Prices  on  the  New  York  Stock 

Exchange  (Commons  and  Stone's  Index  Numbers),  Yearly,  1879-1901,  with 

the  Movement  of  the  Total  Money  in  Circulation  in  the  United  States 


Movement  of  Total  Circulation  for 


Correspondence 


Degree 


Third  year  previous .  . 
Second  year  previous . 

Previous  year 

Same  year 

Following  year 

Second  year  following 


15 
12 

13 
17 
14 


II 

S 
9 
9 

S 

7 


158 
SCO 

143 
182 

545 
333 


The  figures  do  not  exhibit  the  regularity  of  results  observable 
in  the  other  tables.  Perhaps  this  fact  is  due  to  the  small  number  of 
years  available  and  to  some  sort  of  periodicity.  A  high  degree  of 
correspondence  is  shown  for  the  following  year  and  also  about  the 
same  amount  for  the  second  year  previous.  Our  next  compari- 
son is  with  the  per  capita  circulation  of  money  in  the  United  States 
(Table  XX).  Once  again  the  results  are  not  regular.  The  high- 
est degree  of  correspondence  is  shown  this  time  by  the  second  year 
following. 

To  sum  up:  With  the  movement  of  Mitchell's  monthly  index 
numbers  of  stock  prices  has  been  compared  the  movement  of  specie 
and  legal  tenders  and  of  net  deposits  in  the  New  York  Clearing 
House  banks  and  of  the  total  of  circulation  of  money  in  the  United 
States.     Further,   comparison  has  also  been  made  between  the 

'  Monthly  Summary  of  Commerce  and  Finance  for  June,  1912,  p.  2018. 
'  Statistics  for  the  United  Stales,  1867-1909,  pp.  159-63. 


32 


MONEY   AND   PRICES 


yearly  movement  of  the  index  numbers  of  the  stock  prices  and  the 
per  capita  circulation  of  money  in  the  United  States.  The  move- 
ment of  Commons  and  Stone's  index  numbers  has  been  compared 
with  the  yearly  movement  of  total  and  of  per  capita  circulation 
of  money  in  the  United  States. 


TABLE  XX 

CORRESPONTJENCE  OF  THE  MOVEMENT  OF  StOCK  PrICES  ON  THE  NeW  YoRK  StOCK 

Exchange  (Commons  and  Stone's  Index  Numbers),  Yearly,  1879-1901,  with 
THE  Movement  of  Per  Capita  Circulation  of  Money  in  the  United  States 


Movement  of  Per  Capita  Circulation  for 


Correspondence 


Degree 


Second  year  previous. 

Previous  year 

Same  year 

Following  year 

Second  year  following 
Third  year  following . 


9 

II 

14 

7 

13 

9 

13 
16 

9 

5 

13 

7 

—  .100 

+  •333 
+  .182 
+  .182 

+  •524 
+  .300 


As  in  the  case  of  bond  prices,  the  correspondence  between  the 
stock  price  movement  and  the  various  other  movements  with  which 
it  is  compared  is  greater  for  the  movement  of  the  yearly  averages 
than  for  the  movements  of  the  averages  for  the  shorter  periods. 
The  movement  of  stock  prices  corresponds  more  closely  with  the 
movement  of  net  deposits  than  with  the  movement  of  specie  and 
legal  tenders.  The  maximum  correspondence  is  found  in  the  com- 
parison of  the  yearly  movement  of  stock  prices  and  the  yearly 
movement  of  net  deposits.  The  two  movements  correspond  in 
direction  in  the  proportion  of  84  cases  out  of  100.  This  correspond- 
ence is  slightly  higher  than  the  maximum  in  the  case  of  the  compari- 
sons made  with  the  bond  price  movement,  but  still  is  not  complete 
correspondence.  The  correspondence  obtained  in  the  comparisons 
involving  the  monthly  movement  of  stock  prices  is  not  so  high  as 
that  obtained  in  the  similar  comparisons  of  the  monthly  movement 
of  bond  prices.  We  may  contrast  the  relative  amounts  of  corre- 
spondence obtained  when  the  movement  of  Mitchell's  index  number 
of  stock  prices  is  compared  with  the  movement  of  specie  and  legal 
tenders,  of  net  deposits,  and  of  total  and  per  capita  circulation  of 


MONEY  AND   STOCK  PRICES  33 

money  for  preceding  months  or  years  and  for  following  months  or 
years.  The  contrast  bears  out  Irving  Fisher's  analysis,  at  least 
so  far  as  the  direction  of  the  change  is  concerned;  since  he  holds 
that  for  short  periods,  the  amounts  of  money  and  deposits  to  some 
extent  adapt  themselves  to  the  needs  of  trade,  but  that  normally 
the  price  level  is  passive  and  is  controlled  by  the  other  terms  of 
the  equation  of  exchange.  The  confirmatory  evidence  is  that  the 
monthly  observations  show  more  causal  influence  from  the  stock 
prices  to  the  specie  and  legal  tenders,  net  deposits,  and  total  cir- 
culation than  in  the  reverse  direction,  while  for  the  yearly  averages, 
more  causal  influence  is  shown  from  the  specie  and  legal  tenders, 
net  deposits,  and  total  and  per  capita  circulation  of  money  to  the 
stock  prices  than  in  the  reverse  direction.  However,  when  we 
use  the  Commons  and  Stone  index  numbers,  which  are  also  yearly 
averages,  the  comparison  shows  more  causal  influence  from  the 
stock  prices  to  the  total  and  per  capita  circulation  than  in  the  reverse 
direction.  Just  why  there  should  be  this  difference  between  the 
two  index  numbers  is  not  evident.  Perhaps  it  is  due  to  the  fact 
that  the  time  covered  by  the  index  numbers  is  not  the  same.  The 
Mitchell  index  numbers  cover  the  period  from  1890  to  1909,  while 
the  Commons  and  Stone  figures  are  for  the  period  from  1879  to 
1901. 


34  MONEY  AND  PRICES 


IV.   MONEY  AND  FARM  PRODUCTS  PRICES  IN  CHICAGO 

The  prices  of  the  group  of  articles  called  "farm  products"  in 
the  index  numbers  of  wholesale  prices  prepared  by  the  Bureau 
of  Labor  are  largely  taken  from  the  Chicago  markets.  From  these 
prices  an  index  number  was  prepared  of  the  prices  of  farm  products 
in  Chicago,  monthly,  for  the  period  from  1899  to  1908.  The  list 
of  products  is  as  follows : 

Barley,  choice  to  fancy 

Cattle,  steers,  choice  to  fancy 

Cattle,  steers,  good  to  choice 

Corn,  cash 

Flaxseed,  No.  i 

Hay,  timothy,  No.  i 

Hides,  green  salted  packers 

Hogs,  heavy 

Hogs,  light 

Oats,  cash 

Rye,  No.  2 

Sheep,  wethers,  good  to  fancy,  native 

Sheep,  wethers,  plain  to  choice,  western 

Wheat,  contract  grades 

For  the  years  1902-8,  the  monthly  index  numbers  for  the  differ- 
ent articles  are  given  in  the  yearly  reports  of  the  Bureau  of  Labor 
on  wholesale  prices.  For  the  years  1899  to  1901  the  monthly  index 
numbers  are  not  given  and  hence  they  were  computed  from  the 
actual  prices  as  given  in  the  reports.''  The  weekly  high  and  low 
prices  are  given  in  these  tables.  The  average  monthly  price  was 
found  by  taking  the  arithmetic  average  of  the  means  of  the  high  and 
low  prices  of  the  weeks  of  the  month.  Then  the  index  numbers 
of  the  various  products  were  obtained  by  comparing  the  monthly 
price  with  the  base  price  of  each  article  as  given  by  the  Bureau  of 
Labor.  The  average  of  the  monthly  index  numbers  for  the  various 
commodities  so  computed,  or  taken  directly  from  the  bulletins  of 
the  Bureau  of  Labor,  was  then  calculated  to  obtain  the  index 
numbers  of  the  prices  of  farm  products  which  follow. 

'  Bulletin  of  the  Bureau  of  Labor,  No.  39  (March,  1902),  244  ff. 


MONEY  AND   FARM  PRODUCTS   PRICES   IN   CHICAGO 


35 


TABLE  XXI 

Index  Nxtmbers  of  the  Prices  of  Farm  Products  in  Chicago,   Monthly,  from 

1899  to  1908 
(Average  1890-99  =  100) 


Month 

January  .  . 
February  . 

March 

April 

May 

June 

July 

August  .  .  . 
September 
October.  .  , 
November 
December . 


1899 

1900 

1901 

igo2 

1903 

ig04 

1 90s 

igo6 

1907 

98.6 

104. 1 

iii-S 

131-2 

118. 2 

no. 5 

120.7 

118. 7 

128.5 

99.6 

112. 3 

112. 9 

130.9 

119-3 

116. 8 

122.6 

119. 1 

134-8 

995 

III  .2 

114. 9 

132.0 

122. 1 

119. 7 

125. 5 

120.0 

135-6 

102.3 

116. 5 

117. 0 

137.6 

121.5 

120.3 

126.6 

123.5 

137-9 

103-3 

112. 6 

117. 7 

140.7 

119. 6 

119. 8 

124-7 

125.8 

142.6 

101.6 

III. 4 

115. 6 

140.2 

117-5 

120.6 

124.7 

129.2 

146.6 

102.8 

no. 2 

118. 8 

143-5 

III. 6 

119. 8 

116. 3 

126.4 

142.2 

100.6 

107 -5 

121. 8 

13I-3 

no. 9 

119. 8 

122.8 

1245 

142.6 

104.2 

108.7 

120. 5 

125.6 

112. 5 

120.  2 

118. 6 

126.0 

148.8 

103. 1 

108.2 

121. 6 

124. 1 

109. 1 

119. 7 

119-4 

126.6 

149-2 

103.0 

III. I 

122.0 

118. 8 

102.9 

121. 7 

118. 0 

125.7 

130.3 

103.8 

109.3 

128. 1 

116. 8 

104.0 

118. 6 

120. 1 

129.3 

129. 1 

igo8 


132.8 
129.8 

137-7 
140.4 
140.2 
135-6 

139-3 
139.0 

139-3 
I37-I 
137.6 
136.7 


Statistics  for  the  amount  of  specie  and  legal  tenders  and  the 
amount  of  gross  deposits  in  the  Chicago  Clearing  House  banks  were 
taken  from  the  publications  of  the  National  Monetary  Commission.^ 
The  figures  are  given  by  weeks.  The  monthly  figures  were  obtained 
as  in  the  corresponding  case  of  the  New  York  statistics,  by  aver- 
aging the  amounts  for  the  four  or  five  weeks  which  He  wholly  or  for 
most  part  within  the  month.  In  two  instances  for  the  period  imder 
consideration,  where  there  should  have  been  53  weekly  reports 
for  the  year,  but  52  were  given.  As  the  quotations  were  not  avail- 
able elsewhere,  the  missing  quotation,  in  one  instance,  was  suppHed 
by  taking  the  mean  of  the  previous  and  following  quotations,  and 
in  the  other,  the  quotation  was  simply  dropped,  since  it  came  at 
the  close  of  the  last  year  considered.  It  is  to  be  noted  that  gross 
deposits  are  considered  instead  of  net  deposits  as  was  the  case  with 
the  reports  of  the  New  York  banks. 

We  will  next  compare  the  movement  of  the  prices  of  farm 
products  in  Chicago  with  the  movements  of  specie  and  legal 
tenders  and  of  gross  deposits  in  the  banks  of  the  Chicago  Clearing 
House. 

In  no  case  is  the  degree  of  correspondence  high;  in  two  cases 
it  is  positive  and  in  two  cases,  negative.  In  56  cases  out  of  100  the 
movement  of  prices  agrees  with  the  movement  of  the  specie  and 

^  Statistics  for  the  United  States,  1867-1909,  pp.  141-50. 


36 


MONEY  AND   PRICES 


TABLE  XXII 

Correspondence  of  the  Movement  of  the  Prices  of  Farm  Products  in  Chicago, 

Monthly,  1899-1908,  ^VITH  the  Movement  of  the  Amount  of  Specie 

AND  Legal  Tenders  in  the  Chicago  Clearing  House  Banks 


Correspondence 

Movement  of  Specie  and  Legal  Tenders  for 

+ 

- 

0 

Degree 

Second  month  previous 

Previous  month 

58 
65 
53 
50 

57 
51 
64 
66 

2 
2 
2 
2 

+  .009 
+  .  119 

Same  month 

—  .092 

Following  month 

-.136 

legal  tenders  for  the  previous  month,  and  in  57  cases  out  of  100  the 
price  movement  is  in  the  opposite  direction  to  the  movement  of 
specie  and  legal  tenders  for  the  following  month. 

TABLE  XXIII 

Correspondence  of  the  Movement  of  the  Prices  of  Farm  Products  in  Chicago, 

Monthly,  i  899-1 908,  with  the  Movement  of  the  Amount  of  Gross 

Deposits  in  the  Chicago  Clearing  House  Banks 


Movement  of  Gross  Deposits  for 


Correspondence 


Degree 


Second  month  previous . 

Previous  month 

Same  month 

Following  month 

Second  month  following 


59 
66 

64 
63 
59 


56 
50 
53 
53 
56 


+  .026 
+  .136 
+  .092 
+  .085 
+  .026 


Here  the  correspondence  is  all  positive  and  not  very  high.  The 
most  occurs  with  the  previous  month,  where  in  57  cases  out  of  100 
a  movement  in  the  amount  of  gross  deposits  is  followed  by  a  similar 
movement  in  the  prices  of  farm  products  the  next  month. 

To  sum  up:  The  maximum  degree  of  correspondence  is  not  high 
in  the  comparison  of  the  movement  of  the  prices  of  farm  products 
in  Chicago  and  the  movements  of  specie  and  legal  tenders  and  of 
gross  deposits  in  the  Chicago  Clearing  House  banks.  The  highest 
correspondence  of  the  movement  of  the  prices  of  farm  products 
comes  with  the  movement  for  the  previous  month  of  specie  and 
legal  tenders  and  of  gross  deposits.  This  fact  indicates  that  what 
little  causal  influence  is  shown  runs  from  the  specie  and  legal  tenders 
and  gross  deposits  to  the  prices  of  farm  products. 


MONEY  AND  SPECULATIVE  PRICES  IN  CHICAGO        37 

V.   MONEY  AND  SPECULATIVE  PRICES  ON  THE  CHICAGO  BOARD 

OP  TRADE 

Speculative  prices  on  the  Chicago  Board  of  Trade,  weekly  and 
monthly  from  1899  to  1908,  next  engage  our  attention.  Here  is 
presented  for  the  first  time,  it  is  believed,  an  index  number  of  specu- 
lative prices.  The  Chicago  market  is  taken  because  it  is  the  most 
important  speculative  market  for  these  commodities  in  the  United 
States.  The  essence  of  the  speculative  market  is  the  dealing  in 
futures.  The  problem  is  not  the  same  as  at  is  when  it  is  desired 
to  construct  an  index  number  for  actual  prices;  in  such  a  case 
the  usual  method  is  to  express  the  various  prices  as  percentages 
of  some  base  price,  usually  the  average  price  for  some  period. 
Obviously,  this  method  cannot  be  employed  with  speculative 
prices.  In  a  sense,  wheat  to  be  delivered  at  different  times  in  the 
future  is  not  a  single  commodity  but  several  commodities  with 
different  prices  in  the  market,  so  that  no  one  base  price  would  be 
apphcable  to  all.  If  statistics  were  available,  an  index  number 
might  be  constructed  of  the  price  of  wheat  some  definite  time  in 
advance  of  each  date,  e.g.,  an  index  number  showing  the  variations 
in  the  price  of  wheat  to  be  delivered  in  three  months.  But  such 
statistics  are  not  in  existence. 

To  solve  these  difficulties  the  index  number  was  made  with  a 
variable  base,  in  the  following  manner.  The  Chicago  Board  of 
Trade,  in  its  yearbook,  gives  the  daily  high  and  low  prices  for  the 
speculative  commodities  dealt  in  on  the  Board  of  Trade.  Six 
commodities  are  dealt  in  through  the  entire  year,  namely,  wheat, 
corn,  and  oats,  the  prices  of  which  are  quoted  in  terms  of  bushels; 
mess  pork,  quoted  in  terms  of  barrels;  and  lard  and  short  rib  sides, 
quoted  at  so  much  per  hundredweight.  Rye  and  barley  are  also 
traded  in,  but  only  for  part  of  the  year.  The  prices  of  these  com- 
modities are  quoted  for  delivery  in  various  months  in  the  future. 
The  aim  in  computing  the  index  number  was  to  take  the  price  in 
the  future  month  in  which  there  was  the  most  trading.  It  was 
assumed  that  the  movements  in  the  price  of  delivery  in  that  month 
could  be  taken  as  typical  of  the  movements  of  speculative  prices 
of  that  one  commodity,  for  it  is  well  known  that  the  prices  of  the 
various  months  move  in  sympathy  with  each  other.  The  prices 
for  all  the  months  of  future  deUvery  may  not  move  in  the  same 


38  MONEY   AND   PRICES 

direction  when  a  harvest  intervenes.  But  if  there  are  two  diverse 
movements,  one  depending  on  the  expected  harvest  and  the  other 
on  the  stock  in  existence,  we  have  as  much  right  to  take  the  one  as 
typical  as  the  other. 

The  following  is  the  account  of  the  future  prices  which  were 
used  for  the  typical  year.  From  December  to  April,  in  the  case 
of  the  grains,  and  from  January  to  April,  in  the  case  of  the  pork 
products,  the  prices  for  May  delivery  were  taken.  By  not  taking 
the  price  of  May  wheat  in  May,  and,  in  general,  by  not  taking  the 
price  of  any  commodity  for  delivery  in  the  current  month,  we  elimi- 
nate most  if  not  all  of  the  price  changes  which  are  due  to  corners 
and  also  avoid  the  times  when  the  cash  and  future  prices  are  the 
same.  From  May  to  August,  the  prices  of  all  of  the  commodities 
for  September  dehvery  were  taken.  From  September  to  Novem- 
ber, in  the  case  of  the  grains,  the  quotations  for  December  delivery 
were  taken.  In  the  case  of  the  pork  products,  from  September  to 
December  the  quotations  are  for  January  dehvery.  In  some 
cases,  because  of  the  lack  of  quotations,  it  was  necessary  to  depart 
somewhat  from  the  schedule  as  given  above,  but  in  every  case  the 
principle  was  followed  of  taking  the  quotation  for  some  month  in 
advance.  With  this  general  scheme  in  mind,  we  may  now  indi- 
cate in  detail  the  method  employed  in  computing  the  index  numbers. 

From  the  daily  high  and  low  quotations  given  in  the  yearbooks 
of  the  Chicago  Board  of  Trade,  the  weekly  high  and  low  prices  were 
obtained.  The  average  of  the  high  and  low  prices  was  taken  as 
the  price  for  the  week.  Then  for  each  week  was  obtained  the 
percentage  which  the  price  of  that  week  was  of  the  price  of  the 
preceding  week.  This  is  the  famihar  method  of  constructing 
chain  index  numbers  or  index  numbers  with  a  variable  base.  When 
there  was  a  change  of  the  month  of  future  delivery  considered,  it 
was  necessary  to  take  two  quotations  for  the  last  week  of  the 
month.  For  example,  the  index  number  for  the  last  week  in  April 
was  computed  by  comparing  the  price  of  May  delivery  for  that 
week  with  the  price  of  May  delivery  for  the  preceding  week;  the 
index  number  for  the  first  week  in  May  was  obtained  by  comparing 
the  price  of  September  delivery  for  the  first  week  of  May  with  the 
price  of  September  delivery  for  the  last  week  of  April.  Thus  for  the 
last  week  in  April,  it  was  necessary  to  compute  the  prices  of  both 


MONEY   AND    SPECULATIVE   PRICES   IN   CHICAGO 


39 


May  and  September  deliveries.  After  the  index  numbers  had  been 
computed  for  each  commodity  for  each  week,  the  arithmetic  mean 
was  taken  to  obtain  the  index  number  for  speculative  prices  for 
the  week.  It  should  be  clearly  understood  that  the  table  gives 
for  each  week  a  figure  which  indicates  the  change  in  speculative 
prices  from  the  week  before.  No  comparisons  can  be  made  directly 
from  the  table  for  longer  periods. 

TABLE  XXIV 

Numbers  Indicating  the  Percentage  of  Change  from  the  Previous  Week 

OF  Speculative  Prices  on  the  Chicago  Board  of  Trade,  1899-1908. 

The  Year  Begins  with  the  Week  Ending — 


Week 


Jan.  7 

Jan.  6 

Jan.  5 

Jan.  4 

Jan.  lo 

Jan.  9 

Jan.  7 

Jan.  6 

Jan.  5 

1899 

1900 

1901 

1902 

1903 

1904 

1905 

1906 

1907 

98.34 

101.96 

104.85 

100.04 

99-69 

100 . 95 

g8.82 

100,82 

gg.8o 

99.67 

100.25 

103.31 

100.39 

102.46 

100.03 

100.11 

100,87 

99.85 

100.20 

99  58 

99.89 

97.94 

101 .60 

102.68 

100.2s 

99, 8g 

IOI.7S 

103.41 

99.76 

99.40 

98.67 

100.02 

100.98 

100.98 

98,47 

101.3s 

99.11 

99.96 

100.49 

96.79 

99.93 

101.58 

99  65 

99-96 

102.12 

98.26 

102.13 

99.54 

101.05 

101.30 

103.71 

100.11 

101,25 

102.26 

98.57 

100.41 

101.51 

99.73 

100.41 

104.73 

101.23 

100.36 

99.90 

97.63 

98.75 

99.98 

99.88 

100.67 

103.67 

99.26 

9g.6o 

g8.24 

100.63 

98.31 

100.28 

98.61 

100. gi 

94 .24 

100.14 

99-49 

99. 52 

97.71 

loi .14 

100 . 24 

100.41 

100.23 

95.90 

100.76 

99-93 

99.25 

97.81 

102.21 

lOI .84 

100.60 

97.42 

98.66 

100,20 

100.31 

97.94 

100.80 

101.37 

102.19 

98.92 

98.74 

97.5s 

100,14 

102. gs 

98.6s 

loi .91 

102.45 

101 .18 

100. OI 

100.30 

102.30 

98,71 

100.21 

100.41 

98.98 

104.43 

100.59 

100. gi 

99-39 

98.17 

101.68 

100,42 

100.64 

98.97 

100.79 

98.23 

99.84 

101 .96 

96.  og 

100.33 

102. IS 

100.68 

100.90 

99.08 

99-74 

102.5s 

100.81 

97.47 

97-39 

100,4s 

99.29 

98.63 

98.41 

102.31 

100.59 

g8.88 

99.71 

96-63 

g8,84 

101 .28 

98.38 

99.24 

101 .01 

99.63 

99.70 

98.97 

100.07 

99. 57 

100. 55 

97.11 

96.42 

98-43 

98,80 

99.68 

98.83 

100.56 

99.70 

102.92 

99.83 

100.26 

100.27 

100.92 

loi .07 

99.17 

101.24 

102.43 

103.52 

99.5s 

99.00 

101.38 

98.72 

9932 

100 . 33 

100.39 

101,86 

loi ,82 

100.01 

98.27 

99. 75 

99.40 

102. g7 

102.20 

100.43 

100 . 69 

99.12 

101.00 

103.17 

100.58 

99.93 

100. 10 

101.43 

100.65 

IOI.77 

g8,62 

101.23 

lOI . 40 

99.85 

101 .06 

101. ig 

102.66 

101 ,07 

103,89 

97.28 

100.33 

106.84 

100.17 

loi.og 

99. 55 

IOI.3S 

101.54 

99.25 

99. 57 

99.72 

101.91 

100.52 

102.60 

98.17 

99-58 

102.28 

gg.6o 

loi.ti4 

100.12 

97.39 

100.14 

102. 6g 

99.92 

101.45 

99.98 

ioo.i6 

101.31 

loi. SS 

100.38 

103.32 

gg.6o 

97-25 

99.64 

98.82 

100.20 

99.29 

99.11 

95  46 

100.92 

99-49 

98.69 

100.22 

99.37 

g8,oo 

99.22 

97. 95 

99.26 

104.97 

97.50 

100.32 

100.63 

99.36 

99-11 

100.42 

96.90 

98.81 

97.48 

96.94 

100.37 

101.56 

100.00 

g7-02 

101.58 

100. i6 

100.42 

101.45 

•97.87 

100.47 

100.62 

101 . 12 

99-85 

100.37 

100 . 43 

97.92 

102.29 

g6.4o 

98.15 

101 .26 

100.38 

98.37 

98.55 

100. 59 

101.00 

99.02 

102.88 

100.86 

99-17 

100,71 

99.62 

102.50 

99.70 

97.90 

98.55 

102.00 

101 .29 

98.66 

97-88 

100.28 

102,70 

100.81 

99.  26 

100.87 

100.90 

100.98 

99.43 

gg.oo 

98.99 

102,46 

100.03 

101.33 

100.74 

100 . 64 

101 .10 

101.47 

101 .44 

98.52 

98,86 

loi .92 

101 .14 

102.53 

100.70 

94-81 

99  96 

101 .07 

101.73 

98,68 

102.18 

100.93 

99.58 

101 .89 

98-33 

100 . 68 

99-73 

101.68 

100.60 

100.60 

101 .og 

98.02 

101.23 

99-07 

99  95 

99.46 

100,62 

99.97 

99.22 

98.77 

98.15 

101.86 

100.30 

96.59 

101,4s 

100,21 

103.36 

97.66 

97.54 

100.13 

101.83 

g8.i6 

99.02 

99.90 

100.43 

100. 8g 

100.95 

99.40 

99.88 

100.48 

101 .08 

100 . 88 

loi .22 

gg.Si 

95.58 

99.65 

100.53 

99.98 

99.65 

99-74 

98.7s 

100,46 

101,86 

95  16 

99.76 

100.34 

100.71 

99-32 

97-30 

101,74 

99-92 

100.07 

97.  S3 

98.82 

101.13 

101 .17 

99-52 

99-94 

98.  gg 

99-24 

100 , 80 

97-97 

100.76 

100.22 

101.53 

103.21 

97-91 

99.50 

99-8i 

99. 54 

95-71 

98.95 

99  85 

104.05 

100.71 

100.73 

100.52 

102.24 

99.82 

g9.26 

101.28 

100. 12 

103.56 

100.63 

loi .10 

g8,8i 

101 .90 

101.84 

104.37 

102.37 

100. OI 

101.68 

102.42 

101.25 

99-57 

99-17 

102.35 

99.34 

99-74 

99.59 

98.64 

99.56 

101.63 

100.64 

100.08 

100 . 6s 

101.41 

100.52 

100.43 

101.2S 

101.03 
99.94 

104.13 

100. 2g 

100,08 

100.56 

99.81 

Jan.  4 


3 
4 
5 
6 
7 
8 
9 
10 
II 
12 
13 
U 
IS 
16 
17 
18 
19 
20 
21 
22 
23 
24 
25 
26 
27 
28 
29 
30 
31 
32 
33 
34 
35 
36 
37 
38 
39 
40 
41 
42 
43 
44 
45 
46 
47 
48 
49 
SO 
51 
52 
S3 


loi.SS 

101.28 

98.53 

98-73 

97-15 

98.62 

97-92 

98.91 

102,02 

102.86 

100.36 

101 .64 

100.10 

102. S4 

99-33 

99-36 

99-34 

100. 95 

101.31 

99.64 

101.8s 

101.30 

100.07 

9g.02 

102.75 

102 .ig 

102. og 

103 . 2g 

101.74 

99  38 

gg.8i 

102,77 

99.07 

98.76 

100.64 

102. 35 

102.23 

100.57 

99.62 

99.38 

97-92 

97-84 

99.2s 

102.00 

100.00 

100.01 

100.79 

100.29 

100.10 

99-82 

98.87 

100.87 

101.14 


40 


MONEY  AND  PRICES 


TABLE  XXV 

Numbers  Indicating  the  Percentage  of  Change  from  the  Previous  Month 

OF  Speculative  Prices  on  the  Chicago  Board  of  Trade,  1899-1908 


Month 


1899 


igo2 


1903 


1904 


190s 


1906 


1907 


1908 


January. .  . 
February . . 
March .  .  .  . 

April 

May 

June 

July 

August  . . . 
September. 
October.  .  . 
November. 
December. 


99.02 

95  29 

98.94 

95.02 

loi .09 

100.57 

95-88 

102. 6q 

101.59 

98.01 

102. 14 


102 

lOI 

102 
107 
94 
105 
roo 

95 

99 

100 

100 

100 


107 

lOI 

103 
102 

lOI 
lOI 

105 

104 

lOI 

97 
102, 
108. 


96 

99 

102 

99 
100 
103 

92 
104 
106 

lOI 

104 


103 
102 
100 


100.06 

103.48 

q6. 


100. 
94. 
97- 

lOI  . 


107 

no 
95 
93 
95 

104. 

103. 

102, 
99. 
97- 


99 

lOI 

100 
99 
97 

104 

lOI 

99 
99 

lOI 
lOI 

102 


100, 
100 

lOI  . 

T03. 

lOI  , 

106. 

99- 
92. 
98. 

103. 

lOI  . 

103. 


103 
104 

95 
100 
106 

99 

lOI 

102 

103 

99 


94  lOI 


100.99 
93  76 
104.44 
102.52 
102. 27 
103.08 
108.48 
102.40 
103 • 85 
96-39 
101.03 
100.46 


From  the  weekly  index  numbers  a  monthly  index  number  was 
computed  by  putting  the  table  into  continuous  form  and  averaging 
the  index  numbers  of  the  four  or  five  weeks  which  were  wholly  or 
for  most  part  within  the  month  and  then  expressing  the  figures 
so  obtained  as  percentages  of  the  figures  of  the  month  previous. 
So  here  again  only  the  month  to  month  comparison  can  be  made 
directly  from  the  table. 

Tables  XXIV  and  XXV  show  index  numbers  for  speculative 
prices  weekly  and  monthly. 

We  will  first  compare  the  weekly  movement  of  speculative 
prices  with  the  movements  of  specie  and  legal  tenders  and  of  gross 
deposits  in  the  Chicago  Clearing  House  banks,  statistics  for  which 

TABLE  XXVI 

Correspondence  of  the  Movement  of  Speculative  Prices  on  the  Chicago 

Board  of  Trade,  Weekly,  1899-1908,  with  the  Movement  of  Specie 

and  Legal  Tenders  in  the  Chicago  Clearing  House  Banks 


Movement  of  Specie  and  Legal  Tenders  for 


Correspondence 


+ 


Degree 


Third  week  previous . . 
Second  week  previous. 

Previous  week 

Same  week 

Following  week 

Second  week  following 
Third  week  following . 


265 
269 
262 
252 
256 
249 
257 


248 
245 
253 
263 

259 
265 
256 


+  -033 
+  .046 
+  .017 

—  .021 

—  .006 

—  •031 
+  .002 


MONEY  AND    SPECULATIVE   PRICES   IN   CHICAGO 


41 


were  taken  from  the  publications  of  the  National  Monetary 
Commission.^ 

On  the  basis  of  this  table  the  safest  generalization  would  seem 
to  be  that  there  is  no  relationship  between  the  movement  of  specu- 
lative prices  for  the  series  of  years  considered  and  the  movement 
of  specie  and  legal  tenders.  Some  cases  show  a  slight  positive 
correspondence  and  some,  a  sHght  negative  correspondence,  but 
there  is  not  enough  in  either  case  to  justify  any  statement  of 
tendency. 

The  comparison  with  the  movement  of  gross  deposits  comes 
next. 

TABLE  XXVII 

Correspondence  of  the  Movement  of  Speculative  Prices  on  the  Chicago 

Board  of  Trade,  Weekly,   1899-1908,   with  the  Movement  of 

Gross  Deposits  in  the  Chicago  Clearing  House  Banks 


Movement  of  Gross  Deposits  for 


Second  week  previous . 

Previous  week 

Same  week 

Following  week 

Second  week  following 


Correspondence 


+ 


248 
261 

253 
265 
264 


268 
256 
264 
252 
252 


Degree 


-•039 
+  .010 
—  .021 
+  .025 
+  .023 


Here  again  the  movement  of  the  two  sets  of  figures  seems  to  be 
unrelated,  for  only  slight  correspondence  is  shown,  and  that  shown 
is  sometimes  positive  and  sometimes  negative. 

TABLE  XXVIII 

Correspondence  of  the  Movement  of  Speculative  Prices  on  the  Chicago 

Board  of  Trade,  Monthly,  1899-1908,  with  the  Movement  of  the  Amount 

OF  Specie  and  Legal  Tenders  in  the  Chicago  Clearing  House  Banks 


Movement  of  Specie  and  Legal  Tenders  for 

Correspondence 

+         j          - 

0 

Degree 

Second  month  previous 

Previous  month 

55 
64 
64 
63 
51 

62 
54 
55 
55 
66 

00000 

—  .060 
+  .085 
+  .076 
+  .068 

Same  month 

Following  month 

Second  month  following 

-.128 

'  Statistics  for  the  United  States,  1867-1909,  pp.  141-50. 


42 


MONEY  AND   PRICES 


We  will  now  compare  the  monthly  movement  of  speculative 
prices  with  the  movement  of  specie  and  legal  tenders  and  with  the 
movement  of  gross  deposits  of  the  Chicago  Clearing  House  banks. 
The  monthly  figures  for  specie  and  legal  tenders  and  gross  deposits 
were  obtained  from  the  weekly  figures  previously  used  by  taking  the 
arithmetic  mean  of  the  figures  for  the  four  or  five  weeks  which  He 
wholly  or  for  most  part  within  the  month. 

This  comparison  shows  a  small  amount  of  positive  correspond- 
ence, with  not  much  difference  between  the  amounts  for  the  same, 
the  previous,  and  the  following  month.  The  number  of  cases  con- 
sidered is  small  and  therefore  it  may  be  that  the  negative  corre- 
spondence with  the  second  month  previous  and  the  second  month 
following  is  due  to  chance. 

We  come  now  to  the  comparison  with  the  movement  of  gross 
deposits. 

TABLE  XXIX 

Correspondence  of  the  Movement  of  Speculative  Prices  on  the  Chicago 

Board  of  Trade,  Monthly,   1899-1908,  with  the  Movement  of 

Gross  Deposits  in  the  Chicago  Clearing  House  Banks 


Movement  of  Gross  Deposits  for 

Correspondence 

+ 

- 

0 

Degree 

Previous  month 

Same  month 

61 
69 
66 

57 
5° 
52 

0 
0 
0 

+  •034 
-t-.i6o 

Following  month 

+  .119 

The  correspondence  of  the  movement  of  speculative  prices  with 
the  movement  of  gross  deposits  for  the  same  month  is  higher  than 
that  of  any  of  the  other  comparisons  we  have  made  for  speculative 
prices. 

To  sum  up:  We  have  compared  the  movement  of  speculative 
prices  on  the  Chicago  Board  of  Trade  with  the  movements  of  specie 
and  legal  tenders  and  of  gross  deposits  in  the  Clearing  House  banks 
of  Chicago,  using  both  weekly  and  monthly  averages.  Little  or 
no  correspondence  is  shown  when  the  weekly  averages  are  used. 
Practically  we  may  say  that  the  two  weekly  movements  are  unre- 
lated. SHghtly  more  correspondence  is  shown  when  the  monthly 
averages  are  used.     The  greatest  correspondence  of  movement 


MONEY   AND   WHOLESALE   PRICES   IN   THE   UNITED    STATES       43 


is  that  of  the  monthly  index  number  of  speculative  prices  and  the 
average  of  gross  deposits  for  the  same  month.  In  58  out  of  100 
cases,  the  two  movements  agree  in  the  direction  of  their  changes. 
This  maximum  correspondence  is  lower  than  that  obtained  in  the 
comparisons  involving  the  monthly  index  numbers  of  bond  prices 
and  of  stock  prices.  The  correspondence  is  higher  when  the 
monthly  movement  of  speculative  prices  is  compared  with  the 
movement  of  gross  deposits  for  the  following  month  than  when  it 
is  compared  with  the  movement  of  gross  deposits  for  the  preceding 
month.  We  conclude,  therefore,  that  the  amount  of  gross  deposits 
depends  upon  speculative  prices  more  than  speculative  prices  depend 
upon  the  amount  of  gross  deposits. 

VI.      MONEY   AND    WHOLESALE   PRICES    IN   THE    UNITED    STATES 

The  last  price  movement  to  be  considered  is  that  of  wholesale 
prices  of  commodities  in  the  United  States.  We  wish  to  discover 
whether  there  is  any  relationship  between  this  movement  and  the 
movement  of  the  total  money  in  circulation  or  of  per  capita  circu- 
lation. For  the  period  from  1900  to  191 1,  the  Bureau  of  Labor 
has  computed  monthly  index  numbers  of  wholesale  prices.^  With 
this  movement,  we  may  compare  the  movement  of  total  circulation 
for  each  month.  The  monthly  figures  for  the  amount  of  money  in 
circulation  previously  used  have  been  brought  down  through  191 1 
by  obtaining  the  estimates  of  the  total  amount  of  money  in  circula- 
tion for  the  separate  months  from  the  Monthly  Summary  of  Com- 
merce and  Finance. 

TABLE  XXX 

Correspondence  of  the  Movement  of  Wholesale  Prices  in  the  United  States, 

Monthly,  1900-1911,  with  the  Movement  of  the  Total  Amount 

OF  Money  in  Circulation  in  the  United  States 


Movement  of  Total  Circiilation  for 

Correspondence 

+ 

- 

0 

Degree 

Second  month  previous 

Previous  month 

80 

83 
76 

73 

Si 
50 
55 
58 

10 

ID 
12 
II 

+  .189 
+  •231 
+  •147 
+  .106 

Same  month 

Following  month 

Bulletin  of  the  Bureau  of  Labor,  No.  99  (March,  1912),  523. 


44 


MONEY   AND   PRICES 


A  fair  degree  of  correspondence  is  shown  throughout;  the  greatest 
is  in  the  comparison  with  the  money  in  circulation  for  the  previous 
month.  The  correspondence  shown  may  be  expressed  by  the 
statement  that,  in  the  period  studied,  in  about  62  out  of  100  cases 
a  movement  in  total  circulation  is  followed  by  a  similar  movement 
in  wholesale  prices  the  following  month. 

We  next  make  the  comparison  with  wholesale  prices  yearly 
from  1867  to  191 1.'  The  Aldrich  Report  index  numbers  of  whole- 
sale prices  are  used  for  the  period  1867-1890,^  and  those  of  the 
Bureau  of  Labor  for  the  period  1890-1911.3  The  figures  for  total 
and  per  capita  circulation  are  the  same  as  those  used  before,  with 
the  figures  for  the  years  1910  and  191 1  added  from  the  Statistical 
Abstracts  Since  specie  payments  were  not  resumed  until  1879, 
the  comparison  is  made  in  two  forms,  from  1867  to  191 1  and  from 
1879  to  191 1.  Thus  if  desired,  the  period  before  the  resumption 
of  specie  payments  need  not  be  considered.  Both  total  circulation 
and  per  capita  circulation  are  used  in  the  comparison. 

TABLE  XXXI 

Correspondence  of  the  Movement  of  Wholesale  Prices  in  the  United  States 

Yearly,  1867-1911,  and  1879-1911,  with  the  Movement  of  the  Per 

Capita  Circuxation  of  Money  in  the  United  States 


Movement  of  Per  Capita 
Circulation  for 


1867-1911  Correspondence 


+        - 


Degree 


1879-1911  Correspondence 


+        - 


Degree 


Second  year  previous 

Previous  year 

Same  year 

Following  year 


—  .024 
+  .279 
+  .250 
+  .047 


IS 


14 


14 


+  •033 
+  .194 
+  .219 
+  .065 


A  fair  amount  of  correspondence  is  shown.  The  longer  period 
shows  more  than  the  shorter,  and  there  is  a  shifting  of  the  maximum 
from  the  comparison  with  the  previous  year  in  the  long  period  to 
the  comparison  with  the  same  year  in  the  short  period. 

'  Cf.  Hardy,  "The  Quantity  of  Money  and  Prices,  1860-1891,"  Journal  of  Political 
Economy,  III  (March,  1895),  i45- 

'  Laughlin,  Principles  of  Money,  p.  215. 

3  Bulletin  of  the  Bureau  of  Labor,  No.  99  (March,  1912),  523. 

^Statistical  Abstract  of  the  United  States  for  1911,  p.  580, 


MONEY   AND   WHOLESALE   PRICES   IN   THE    UNITED    STATES       45 

TABLE  XXXII 

Correspondence  of  the  Movement  of  Wholesale  Prices  in  the  United  States, 

Yearly,  1867-1911,  and  1879-1911,  with  the  Movement  of  the 

Total  Circulation  of  Money  in  the  United  States 


Movement  of  Total  Circulation  for 


1867-1911  Correspondence 


+        —        o         Degree 


1879-1911  Correspondence 


+        - 


Degree 


Previous  year 

Same  year 

Following  year 

Second  year  following 


+  .068 

+  •093 
+  .024 


17 


o 
+  .156 
+  •194 
+  .167 


This  result  is  different  from  that  in  the  comparison  with  per 
capita  circulation — here  the  shorter  period  shows  higher  correspond- 
ence than  the  longer  period.  However,  the  correspondence  is  not 
so  high  as  in  the  comparison  with  per  capita  circulation.  The 
greatest  correspondence  for  both  the  longer  and  the  shorter  periods 
is  found  in  the  comparison  with  the  following  year. 

These  results  throw  an  interesting  light  on  Irving  Fisher's 
proposal  for  a  "compensated  dollar."  Suppose  that  the  scheme 
were  in  operation  and  that  the  value  of  the  dollar  had  become  more 
or  less  than  it  should  be.  Then  the  amount  of  bullion  necessary 
to  procure  a  dollar  at  the  mint  or  that  would  be  given  for  a  dollar 
at  the  mint  would  be  lessened  or  increased.  The  effect  of  this 
change  would  be  to  increase  or  decrease  the  amount  of  money  in 
circulation.  Now  the  point  is  that  prices  would  change  in  the 
direction  desired  in  only  62  cases  out  of  100,  if  we  may  generalize 
from  our  past  experience  and  if  we  take  the  greatest  degree  of  cor- 
respondence shown  in  any  of  the  present  calculations  involving 
the  total  circulation  of  money  and  wholesale  commodity  prices. 
In  the  other  38  cases  out  of  the  100,  a  movement  in  the  opposite 
direction  from  the  one  desired  would  take  place.  With  such 
hmited  correspondence  it  would  seem  unwise  to  attempt  to  regu- 
late the  price  level  by  the  proposed  means.  If  the  price  movement 
were  long  continued  in  one  direction,  perhaps  other  effects  than 
those  working  directly  through  changes  in  the  volume  of  money 
would  be  observable.  At  any  rate  a  possibly  new  factor  would  be 
introduced. 


46  MONEY  AND   PRICES 

We  shall  next  test  by  the  method  of  the  Degree  of  Correspond- 
ence two  attempts  which  have  been  made  to  prove  the  Quantity 
Theory  of  Money  statistically.  Kemmerer  has  given  in  Book  II 
of  his  Money  and  Credit  Instruments  in  Their  Relation  to  General 
Prices  a  statistical  proof  of  the  Quantity  Theory  of  Money  in  the 
form  in  which  he  supports  it.  His  figures  cover  the  period  from 
1879  to  1908.     Kemmerer  starts  with  the  equation  of  exchange  in 

.     .         _,      MR-\-CRc    .       ,  .  , 
the  form Fs=  „„  .  ,^  „  ,  in  which 

i\l-rL-\-rs  c-ti'c 

Ps  =  the  average  price  of  all  goods  exchanged  for  money  or  checks 

M  =  the  quantity  of  money  in  circulation 

R   =  the  number  of  times  the  money  is  turned  over 

N  =  the  number  of  commodities  exchanged  by  money 

E   =  the  number  of  times  they  are  exchanged 

C   =  the  amount  of  checks 

Re  —  the  number  of  times  the  checks  are  turned  over 

Nc  =  the  number  of  commodities  exchanged  by  checks 

Ec  =  the  number  of  times  they  are  exchanged. 

Values  are  found  for  the  various  terms  on  the  right-hand  side 
of  the  equation.  In  general,  relative  not  absolute  values  are  com- 
puted. The  value  of  Ps  is  calculated  from  these  figures  and  is 
called  "relative  circulation."  The  proof  of  the  Quantity  Theory 
of  Money  comes  in  comparing  the  figures  for  "relative  circulation" 
with  the  index  numbers  obtained  from  actual  prices.  We  shall 
test  the  closeness  of  the  agreement  between  "relative  circulation" 
and  the  index  numbers  of  actual  prices  by  the  method  of  the  Degree 
of  Correspondence  for  both  the  direction  and  the  amount  of  the 
change.  The  two  series  should  move  together  exactly  in  order 
to  prove  that  the  theory  holds  in  every  case.  Table  XXXIII 
gives  the  two  series  of  figures  and  the  correspondence  of  the  two 
series  for  the  various  years  of  the  period  and  for  the  period  as  a 
whole. 

For  direction  the  figures  show  a  high  degree  of  correspondence, 
+  .48.  This  is  not  perfect  correspondence  but  indicates  that  the 
two  series  move  together  in  the  proportion  of  74  out  of  100  cases. 
However,  when  the  amount  as  well  as  the  direction  of  the  change 
is  considered,  the  correspondence  is  much  less,  only  -f-  .  20. 


MONEY  AND   WHOLESALE   PRICES   IN   THE   UNITED    STATES       47 

TABLE  XXXIII 

Correspondence  of  the  Movement  of  Kemmerer's  Index  Numbers  for 
Relative  Circulation  and  General  Prices 


Year 

1879 

5o 

5i 

52 

53 

h 

3s 

36 

37 

38 

39 

?o 

?i 

?2 

1893 

[894 

t895 

[896 

1897 

[898 

1899 

1900.  .  .  . 
1901 .... 
[902. . .  . 


Relative 

ClRCtTLATION 


99 
107 
107 
123 
112 
103 

84 

83 
102 
103 
104 
108 
105 

99 
119 
102 
104 
103 

96 

113 
124 

125 
136 
136 


General 
Prices 


lOS 

106 

118 

109 

100 

91 

89 

90 

92 

93 
90 

94 
90 
90 
82 
80 
77 
74 
80 
80 
92 
92 
99 


Correspondence 


•37 

•75 
•85 
.96 

•49 
•55 
■OS 
•45 
.91 


•75 
.62 

.27 

•57 
.46 

•OS 


.64 


•83 


.27 


48 


MONEY  AND   PRICES 
TABLE  XXXlll—ConlimKd 


Relative 
Circulation 

General 
Prices 

Correspondence 

+ 

- 

0 

1903 

1904 

1905 

1906 

1907 

1908 

131 
119 

134 
138 

133 
132 

100 
96 

lOI 

108 
112 
103 

■43 
•41 
•43 

.  10 

■97 

+9-47 

-3-55 

For  direction  +ig— s+(sXo)  =  +i4-5-29  =  +  ^48,  Degree  of  Correspondence. 

For  direction  and  amount  +9.47— 3.55  + (sXo)  = +5.92-;- 29  =  +  .20,  Degree  of  Correspondence. 

Irving  Fisher  in  chap,  xii  of  his  Purchasing  Power  of  Money 
has  attempted  the  same  sort  of  a  statistical  proof  of  the  Quantity- 
Theory  of  Money  for  the  years  1 896-1 909.  The  period  covered 
is  not  so  well  chosen  as  that  covered  by  Kemmerer's  figures,  since 
it  is  shorter  and  includes  only  a  period  of  generally  rising  prices. 
But  in  some  of  the  details  of  the  computation,  Fisher  has  made  a 
great  advance  over  Kemmerer.  The  test  of  the  Quantity  Theory 
comes  in  comparing  the  index  numbers  obtained  directly  from  actual 
prices  with  the  results  reached  by  solving  the  equation  of  exchange 
in  the  form  used  by  Fisher  for  the  price  level.  The  Degree  of 
Correspondence  has  been  computed  for  these  figures'  and  the  table 
is  repeated  here.  The  table  is  constructed  in  the  same  manner 
as  the  preceding  one.  It  gives  the  two  series  of  numbers  to  be 
compared  and  the  correspondence  shown  in  the  direction  and  the 
amount  of  movement. 

For  direction  the  correspondence  is  +  .31  and  for  direction  and 
amount  it  is  +.23.  It  will  be  noted  that  the  correspondence  for 
direction  only  is  less  than  that  in  Kemmerer's  proof,  being  only 
about  two-thirds  as  great.  For  direction  and  amount  of  movement, 
the  correspondence  in  Fisher's  proof  is  slightly  greater  than  that 

'  Magee,  "The  Degree  of  Correspondence  between  Two  Series  of  Index  Numbers," 
Quarterly  Publications  of  the  American  Statistical  Association,  XIII  (June,  1912),  181. 


MONEY   AND   WHOLESALE   PRICES   IN   THE   UNITED    STATES       49 


TABLE  XXXIV 

CORSESPONDENCE    OF    THE    MOVEMENT    OF    FiSHER'S    InDEX    NUMBERS    OF    PRICES 

Obtained  Directly  and  Indirectly 


Year 

Directly 

Indirectly 

Correspondence 

+ 

- 

0 

1896 

1897 

1898 

1899 

1900 

1901 

1902 

1903 

1904 

1905 

1906 

1907 

1908 

1909 

63 
64 
66 

74 
80 
84 
89 
87 
85 
91 
97 
97 
92 
100 

54 
52 
56 
69 
68 
76 
82 

75 
81 

83 
90 
86 

87 
100 

•  41 
•52 

•43 
•75 
.26 

•35 
.78 

•58 

•43 
.18 

.29 
•23 

0 

+4 -08 

-I-I3 

+4.08— 1.13+0=2. 9S -5- i3  =  +  ^23i  Degree  of  Correspondence,  considering  amount  and  direction 
of  change. 

+8— 4+0=4-!- 13  =  +  . 31,  Degree  of  Correspondence,  considering  only  the  direction  of  the  change. 

of  Kemmerer's.  In  neither  case  is  much  correspondence  shown 
for  direction  and  amount  of  movement;  our  inference  is,  then,  that 
these  two  attempted  proofs  of  the  Quantity  Theory  of  Money  are 
far  from  being  conclusive. 

The  import  of  these  studies  in  the  relation  of  the  movement 
of  the  wholesale  prices  of  commodities  to  the  movement  of  money 
in  circulation  is  clear.  We  may  state  it  in  alternative  ways. 
Using  tendency  as  the  statement  of  what  actually  happens,  we 
may  say  that  the  tendency  of  money  and  prices  to  move  in  the  same 
direction  shows  itself  in  the  proportion  of  from  55  to  64  out  of  100 


50  MONEY  AND   PRICES 

cases.  Or  using  tendency  in  the  sense  of  what  will  happen  if  not 
prevented,  we  may  say  that  the  tendency  of  prices  to  vary  with  the 
quantity  of  money  is  counteracted  in  from  36  to  45  out  of  100  cases. 
If  we  conclude  that  the  chief  point  of  contention  concerning  the 
Quantity  Theory  of  Money  is  the  question  of  the  proportionaHty 
of  the  change,  then  the  opponents  of  the  theory  have  the  better 
of  the  argument  so  far  as  we  can  judge  from  these  statistics. 

In  their  statistical  proofs  of  the  Quantity  Theory  of  Money, 
Kemmerer  and  Fisher  have  attempted  to  make  allowance  not  only 
for  the  money,  but  also  for  the  factors  in  the  equation  of  exchange 
other  than  money.  This  attempt  gives  for  Kemmerer's  proof 
74  cases  out  of  100  where  the  movements  agree  in  direction,  as  com- 
pared with  64  cases  of  agreement  out  of  100  when  allowance  was 
not  made  for  the  other  factors.  However,  Fisher's  figures  with  such 
allowance  do  not  show  more  correspondence  for  direction  than  the 
crude  figures  do.  In  both  of  the  proofs,  the  correspondence  for 
direction  and  amount  of  change  is  less  than  the  correspondence  for 
the  direction  of  the  change  only.  Since  the  degree  of  correspond- 
ence between  the  movement  of  the  wholesale  prices  of  commodities 
and  the  amount  of  money  in  circulation  was  not  computed  for  both 
the  direction  and  the  amount  of  the  change,  we  cannot  compare  the 
crude  figures  for  direction  and  amount  of  change  with  the  results 
obtained  in  the  proofs  of  Fisher  and  Kemmerer. 

On  the  question  of  whether  the  amount  of  money  adjusts  itself 
to  the  wholesale  prices  or  whether  wholesale  prices  adjust  them- 
selves to  the  amount  of  money,  we  find  that  in  the  case  of  the  com- 
parison of  the  movement  of  the  wholesale  prices  of  commodities 
with  the  yearly  averages  of  the  per  capita  circulation  of  money  and 
the  monthly  averages  of  the  total  circulation  of  money,  the  price 
changes  follow  the  changes  in  the  amounts  of  money  more  frequently 
than  the  reverse.  Thus  these  figures  support  Fisher's  view  that 
the  price  level  is  the  passive  element  in  the  equation  of  exchange. 
On  the  other  hand,  the  comparison  of  the  movement  of  the  whole- 
sale prices  of  commodities  with  the  yearly  averages  for  total  cir- 
culation of  money  indicates  that  changes  in  the  amounts  of  money 
follow  price  changes  more  frequently  than  the  reverse,  thus  sup- 
porting LaughUn's  view.  As  was  suggested  before,  the  case  is  not 
exactly  a  test  of  Laughlin's  contention,  since  his  statement  is  that 


SUMMARY  51 

the  volume  of  the  medium  of  exchange  adjusts  itself  to  the  need  for 
it.  Thus,  in  so  far  as  the  money  in  circulation  includes  money 
used  as  a  standard,  the  figures  do  not  give  us  an  exact  test  of 
Laughlin's  statement. 

VII.      SUMMARY 

By  way  of  summary  a  tabulation  is  presented  of  the  highest 
degrees  of  correspondence  which  were  shown  in  the  various  com- 
parisons which  have  been  made.  Where  there  is  considerable  of 
both  positive  and  negative  correspondence,  the  maximum  of  each 
kind  is  given. 

I.  Bond  Price  Movement 

1.  Weekly 

a)  + .  199  with  movement  of  specie  and  legal  tenders  for  previous  week 

b)  + .  212  with  movement  of  net  deposits  for  same  week 

2.  Monthly 

a)  + .  207  with  movement  of  specie  and  legal  tenders  for  same  month 
^)  +-3S7  with  movement  of  net  deposits  for  same  month 

c)  + .  159  with  movement  of  total  circulation  for  previous  month 
— .  066  with  movement  of  total  circulation  for  following  month 

3.  Yearly 

a)  + .  500  with  movement  of  specie  and  legal  tenders  for  same  year 
— .  500  with  movement  of  specie  and  legal  tenders  for  following  year 

b)  +.611  with  movement  of  net  deposits  for  the  same  year 
— .  278  with  movement  of  net  deposits  for  following  year 

c)  -\- .  500  with  movement  of  per  capita  and  total  circulation  for  same 
year 

II.  Stock  Price  Movement 

1.  Monthly  (Mitchell) 

c)  + .  130  with  movement  of  specie  and  legal  tenders  for  following 
month 

—  .  084  with  movement  of  specie  and  legal  tenders  for  second  month 
following 

b)  + .  181  with  movement  of  net  deposits  for  following  month 

c)  +.075  with  movement  of  total  circulation  for  following  month 

2.  Yearly  (Mitchell) 

a)  + .  474  with  movement  of  specie  and  legal  tenders  for  previous  year 

—  .III  with  movement  of  specie  and  legal  tenders  for  following  year 

b)  + .  684  with  movement  of  net  deposits  for  previous  year 

—  .  333  with  movement  of  net  deposits  for  following  year 

c)  + .  263  with  movement  of  total  circulation  for  previous  year  and  for 
same  year 

—  .  158  with  movement  of  total  circulation  for  second  year  previous 

d)  + .  263  with  movement  of  per  capita  circulation  for  same  year  and 
for  previous  year 

— .  053  with  movement  of  per  capita  circulation  for  following  year 
and  for  second  year  previous 


52  MONEY  AND   PRICES 

3.  Yearly  (Commons  and  Stone) 

a)  + .  545  with  movement  of  total  circulation  for  following  year 

—  .158  with  movement  of  total  circulation  for  third  year  previous 

b)  +.524  with  movement  of  per  capita  circulation  for  second  year 
following 

— .  100  with  movement  of  per  capita  circulation  for  second  year 
previous 

III.  Farm  Products  Price  Movement 

a)  — .  136  with  movement  of  specie  and  legal  tenders  for  following 
month 

+  .119  with  movement  of  specie  and  legal  tenders  for  previous 
month 

b)  +.  136  with  movement  of  gross  deposits  for  previous  month 

IV.  Speculative  Price  Movement 

1.  Weekly 

a)  -\- .  046  with  movement  of  specie  and  legal  tenders  for  second  week 
previous 

—  .021  with  movement  of  specie  and  legal  tenders  for  same  week 

b)  —.039  with  movement  of  gross  deposits  for  second  week  previous 
+  .025  with  movement  of  gross  deposits  for  following  week 

2.  Monthly 

o)  — .  128  with  movement  of  specie  and  legal  tenders  for  second  month 

following 

+ .  085  with  movement  of  specie  and  legal  tenders  for  previous  month 
b)  +.160  with  movement  of  gross  deposits  for  same  month 

V.  Wholesale  Price  Movement 

1.  Monthly 

o)  +.231  with  movement  of  total  circulation  for  previous  month 

2.  Yearly  1867-1911 

a)  +.  279  with  movement  of  per  capita  circulation  for  previous  year 

b)  + .  093  with  movement  of  total  circulation  for  following  year 

3.  Yearly  1879-1911 

a)  + .  219  with  movement  of  per  capita  circulation  for  same  year 

b)  +.194  with  movement  of  total  circulation  for  following  year 

VI.   Tests  of  Statistical  Proofs  of  the  Quantity  Theory  of  Money 

1.  Kemmerer's 

a)  + .  48  for  direction  of  movement 

b)  + .  20  for  direction  and  amount  of  movement 

2.  Fisher's 

a)  +.31  for  direction  of  movement 

b)  + .  23  for  direction  and  amount  of  movement 

Since  we  have  pointed  out  at  the  close  of  each  section  the  sig- 
nificance of  the  figures  given,  there  remains  merely  the  task  of 
attempting  to  draw  some  general  conclusions,  although  we  recog- 
nize that  it  is  rather  dangerous  to  generalize  from  statements  that 


SUMMARY  53 

are  not  of  equal  value.  The  summary  just  given  shows  that,  in 
general,  positive  correspondence  is  more  common  than  negative. 
The  cases  of  negative  correspondence  are  probably  due  to  some 
marked  periodicity  in  one  or  the  other  set  of  figures.  The  highest 
degree  of  correspondence  is  +.684,  that  of  the  movement  of 
Mitchell's  yearly  stock  prices  with  the  movement  of  net  deposits 
in  the  New  York  Clearing  House  banks  for  the  previous  year.  The 
lowest  amount  of  positive  correspondence  which  is  the  maximum 
for  any  of  the  comparisons  is  +  .025,  that  of  the  movement  of  the 
weekly  speculative  prices  on  the  Chicago  Board  of  Trade  with  the 
movement  of  gross  deposits  in  the  Clearing  House  banks  of  Chicago 
for  the  following  week.  As  regards  frequency,  the  maximum  corre- 
spondence comes  when  the  comparison  is  made  between  the  price 
movement  and  a  movement  of  money  in  banks  or  in  circulation  or 
deposits  in  banks  for  a  previous  period,  1 2  times ;  for  the  same  period, 
II  times;  and  for  a  following  period,  8  times.  In  two  instances,  two 
comparisons  equally  show  the  highest  correspondence,  so  in  sum- 
marizing each  of  the  two  is  credited  with  the  maximum. 

We  are  interested  in  the  relative  amounts  of  correspondence 
shown  when  the  price  movement  is  compared  with  the  movement 
of  money  or  deposits  in  banks  or  money  in  circulation  for  preceding 
and  for  following  weeks,  months,  or  years  (even  though  the  maxi- 
mum correspondence  may  be  shown  when  the  price  movement  is 
compared  with  the  movement  of  money  or  deposits  for  the  same 
week,  month,  or  year).  In  18  cases  more  correspondence  is  shown 
when  the  price  movement  is  compared  with  the  movement  of 
money  and  deposits  for  a  preceding  year,  month,  or  week  than  is 
shown  when  the  comparison  is  made  with  a  following  year,  month, 
or  week.  In  1 1  cases  the  reverse  is  true.  It  may  be  of  interest  to 
indicate  how  the  instances  of  these  two  types  are  distributed  among 
the  investigations  using  weekly,  monthly,  and  yearly  averages  and 
also  among  the  investigations  concerned  with  specie  and  legal 
tenders  in  banks,  bank  deposits,  and  total  and  per  capita  circula- 
tion of  money.  Of  the  cases  where  more  correspondence  is  shown 
when  the  price  movement  is  compared  with  the  movement  of  money 
and  deposits  for  a  preceding  than  for  a  following  unit  of  time, 
instances  appear  in  investigations  involving  weekly  averages  2 
times,  monthly  averages  6  times,  and  yearly  averages  10  times. 


54  MONEY   AND   PRICES 

Instances  of  the  opposite  kind  are  found  in  investigations  involving 
weekly  averages  2  times,  monthly  averages  5  times,  and  yearly 
averages  4  times.  Of  the  cases  where  more  correspondence  is 
shown  when  the  price  movement  is  compared  with  the  movement 
of  money  and  deposits  for  a  preceding  than  for  a  following  unit 
of  time,  instances  occur  in  investigations  involving  specie  and  legal 
tenders  in  banks  7  times,  bank  deposits  3  times,  total  circulation 
of  money  4  times,  and  per  capita  circulation  of  money  4  times. 
Instances  of  the  opposite  kind  are  found  in  investigations  involving 
specie  and  legal  tenders  in  banks  once,  bank  deposits  5  times,  total 
circulation  of  money  4  times,  and  per  capita  circulation  of  money 
once. 

The  following  conclusions  may  be  drawn  from  the  individual 
studies  and  this  summary.  They  refer,  of  course,  only  to  the 
periods  and  the  price  movements  studied. 

First:  The  relation  of  price  changes  to  changes  in  the  amount 
of  money  in  circulation  and  in  banks  and  in  the  amount  of  deposits 
in  banks  varies  with  different  groups  of  commodities.  Moreover, 
in  any  particular  group  of  commodities,  the  relation  may  be  differ- 
ent when  weekly,  monthly,  and  yearly  averages  are  considered. 

Second:  In  no  case  was  complete  correspondence  found  between 
a  price  movement  and  the  movement  of  money  or  deposits  in  banks 
or  of  money  in  circulation. 

Third:  In  general,  the  correspondence  is  greater  between  price 
movements  and  the  movement  of  money  or  deposits  in  banks  or  of 
money  in  circulation  when  the  averages  used  cover  longer  periods 
than  when  they  cover  shorter  periods. 

Fourth:  Some  of  the  price  movements  in  local  markets  show 
more  correspondence  with  the  movement  of  money  and  deposits 
in  the  local  banks  than  is  shown  in  the  comparison  of  general  prices 
throughout  the  country  with  the  money  in  circulation  in  the  whole 
country. 

Fifth:  The  causal  influence  runs  from  money  in  circulation  or 
in  banks  to  prices  more  frequently  than  the  reverse.  On  the  other 
hand,  the  causal  influence  runs  from  prices  to  bank  deposits  more 
frequently  than  the  reverse. 


APPENDIX 

In  the  appendix  are  given  the  full  correspondence  tables  from  which 
the  summary  tables  in  the  text  were  derived.  In  these,  +  =  positive 
correspondence,  —  =  negative  correspondence,  and  o  =  no  correspond- 
ence. "Degree  of  Correspondence"  in  every  case  refers  merely  to  the 
direction  of  the  movement.  In  general,  the  material  is  presented  in  the 
order  in  which  it  was  used. 


56  MONEY   AND   PRICES 

Correspondence  of  Bond  Price  Movement  with  Movement   of  Specie  and 

Legal  Tentjers  in  New  York  Clearing  House  Banks  for 

Third  Week  Previous 


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Positive  correspondences 466       Negative  correspondences 389 

Zero  correspondences 134        Degree  of  Correspondence +078 


APPENDIX  57 

Correspondence  of  Bond  Price  Movement  with  Movement  of  Specie  and 

Legal  Tenders  in  New  York  Clearing  House  Banks  for 

Second  Week  Previous 


M 

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Positive  correspondences 481        Negative  correspondences 373 

Zero  correspondences 136       Degree  of  Correspondence +  •  109 


58  MONEY   AND   PRICES 

Correspondence  of  Bond  Price  Movement  with  Movement  of  Specie  and 

Legal  Tenders  in  New  York  Clearing  House  Banks  for 

Previous  Week 


I. 

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53- 

•    — 

— 

0 

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Positive  correspondences 527        Negative  correspondences 330 

Zero  correspondences 134        Degree  of  Correspondence +  •  lOO 


APPENDIX  59 

Correspondence  of  Bond  Price  Movement  with  Movement  of  Specie  and 

Legal  Tenders  in  New  York  Clearing  House  Banks  for 

Same  Week 

i)         oo\ooO'0>oioo>ooo         oo         oo         ooo 


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Positive  correspondences 495        Negative  correspondences 362 

Zero  correspondences 134       Degree  of  Correspondence + .  134 


6o  MONEY   AND   PRICES 

Correspondence  of  Bond  Price  Movement  with  Movement  of  Specie  and 

Legal  Tenders  in  New  York  Clearing  House  Banks  for 

Following  Week 


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49- 
SC- 
SI 
S2. 
53- 

Positive  correspondences 487        Negative  correspondences 372 

Zero  correspondences 132        Degree  of  Correspondence +.116 


APPENDIX  6l 

Correspondence  of  Bond  Price  Movement  with  Movement  of  Specie  and 

Legal  Tenders  in  New  York  Clearing  House  Banks  for 

Second  Week  Following 


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Positive  correspondences 432        Negative  correspondences 40s 

Zero  correspondences 134       Degree  of  Correspondence +047 


62  MONEY  AND  PRICES 

Correspondence  of  Bond  Price  Movement  with  Movement  of  Net  Deposits 

IN  New  York  Clearing  House  Banks  for 

Second  Week  Previous 


I. 

*^ 

+ 

+ 



+ 

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22. 

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24. 

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26. 

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27. 

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28. 

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29. 

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33- 

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38. 

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39- 

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40. 

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41- 

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42. 

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44- 

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45- 

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46. 

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48. 

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49 

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51- 

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52. 

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0 

0 

— 

0 

+ 

— 

— 

SI- 

.  — 

— 

0 



Positive  correspondences 460       Negative  correspondences 401 

Zero  correspondences 129        Degree  of  Correspondence +.060 


APPENDIX  63 

Correspondence  of  Bond  Price  Movement  with  Movement  of  Net  Deposits 

IN  New  York  Clearing  House  Banks  for 

Previous  Week 


•^ 

+ 

+ 

+ 

+ 

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0 

0 

— 

0 

— 

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— 

Positive  correspondences 516       Negative  correspondences 340 

Zero  correspondences 135        Degree  of  Correspondence + .  178 


64  MONEY   AND   PRICES 

CORRESPONDEN'CE   OF   BOND   PrICE   MOVEMENT   AND   Mo\^MENT   OF   NeT   DEPOSITS 

IN  New  York  Clearing  House  Banks  for 
Same  Week 

0)  o>o»o»0'0io^o*0'0>o*oooooo  000 

;>         00000000000000000000         0000>OvO>         o«o>c> 


I . 

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19. 

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20. 

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21 . 

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22. 

0 

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0 

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23- 

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26. 

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27. 

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28. 

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29. 

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30  • 

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31 

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32- 

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34- 

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0 

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35- 

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36. 

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37- 

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38. 

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0 

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0 

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39- 

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40. 

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41- 

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42. 

0 

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0 

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0 

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0 

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43- 

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44- 

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45- 

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46. 

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47- 

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48. 

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0 

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49- 

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50- 

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0 

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51- 

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+ 

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52- 

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+ 

+ 

+ 

— 

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+ 

0 

0 

+ 

0 

— 

— 

— 

S3- 

.    — 

— 

0 

— 

Positive  correspondences 533        Negative  correspondences 32^ 

Zero  correspondences 13s        Degree  of  Correspondence .  .  .• +.212 


APPENDIX  65 

Correspondence  of  Bond  Price  Movement  with  Movement  of  Net  Deposits 

IN  New  York  Clearing  House  Banks  for 

Following  Week 

S»         f>Q»oo.ooo»o>o»o*oooooo         000 

00  CO  00  00 


M 

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0 

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4- 

4 

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0 

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4 

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0 

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— 

— 

— 

0 

+ 

Positive  correspondences 53^        Negative  correspondences 327 

Zero  correspondences 133        Degree  of  Correspondence +  •  206 


66 


MONEY  AND  PRICES 


Correspondence  of  Bond  Price  Movement  with  Movement  of  Net  Deposits 

IN  New  York  Clearing  House  Banks  for 

Second  Week  Following 


»r>    so     r^ 


00     00     00     00 


+  + 

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o   —   o   o 


+ 
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+ 
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+ 

+ 
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+  o 

o  — 

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-  + 

o  — 

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+  + 

+  - 

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o  + 


+  - 

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o  o 

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o  — 

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o   — 

+  - 

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+  -  - 

+  +  - 

-  +  - 

o  +  + 

+  +  + 

o  +  o 

+ 

o 


I 

2 

3 
4 

5 
6 

7 
8 

9 

lO 

II 

12 

13 
14 
15 
i6 

17 
i8 

iQ 

20 
21 

22 

23 
24 

25 
26 

•27 

28 
29 
30 
31 
32 

33 
34 
35 
36 
37 
38 
39 
40 

41 
42 
43 
44 
45 
46 

47 
48 

49 
50 
51 
52 
53 

Positive  correspondences 491        Negative  correspondences 367 

Zero  correspondences 133        Degree  of  Correspondence +125 


-  + 
+      + 

-  + 


-  + 
+  - 

+  - 

-  + 

+  + 

+  + 

+  o 

o  — 

+  - 

+  - 

+  - 

-  + 


-  + 
+  + 

-  + 
+  + 

-  + 
+  + 

o  o 

-  + 


+ 
+ 


-  + 
+  - 

-  + 

o  + 

o  + 

+  + 

+  +  - 

+      o  + 

+  +  - 

-  +  - 

+      o  + 

0     —  0 

+    4-  - 

-  +  + 

+   -  - 

+  -  + 

-  +  + 

-  -  + 

-  +  - 


-  +  + 

-  +  + 

+ 


APPENDIX 


67 


Correspondence  of  Bond  Price  Movement  with  Movement  of  Specie  and 

Legal  Tenders  in  New  York  Clearing  House  Banks  for — 

previous  month 


Month 

Jan. . . 
Feb... 
Mar. . 
Apr. .  . 
May  . 
June.. 
July.. 
Aug.  . 
Sept . . 
Oct  .. 
Nov. . 
Dec. 


+    +    --    +    +    +  +  +    +0  - 

+      +      +      +      -       +      0  +  +      +  +  + 

_____o     ---  +    +  +  + 

+  ___  +  __  +  +  __  +  _ 

-  +  --  +  + 

-  +  +  -  +  + 

+  +  +     o  +  - 

+ 


+ 


+ 


+  +  - 

o      -     + 


+ 

+ 


-  +  + 

-  +  - 

—     o     — 


—  o 

-  + 

-  + 
+  + 


-  -  +  - 
+  +  +  + 
+  +  +  - 

-  -  + 

-  +  + 
+  +  + 


+  +  + 
-  +  + 


+ 
+ 


-  -  + 

o     +    - 


—     o     — 


+ 
+ 


+ 


+  + 

+  + 

+  + 

+  +  - 

+  +  + 


+ 
+ 


+  + 
-  + 
+  + 


+  + 

+  + 

-  + 

-  +  - 
+  -  +  + 
+  -  +  + 
+  +  +  + 

-  -  +  - 

+     o  +     - 

+  +  -  - 


Positive  correspondences 120       Negative  correspondences 94 

Zero  correspondences 12        Degree  of  Correspondence + .  iiS 


SAME 

MONTH 

0 

M 

„ 

t^ 

•o- 

lO 

^0 

r^ 

00 

0 

Q 

„ 

to 

Month 

M 

^ 

00 

0. 

00 

00 

0. 
00 

M 

M 

^ 

0 

0 

0. 

§> 

a 

a 

0 

01 

§, 

Jan  .  .  . 

+ 

+ 

+ 

— 

— 

— 

+ 

+ 

+ 

+ 

+ 

+ 

— 

+ 

+ 

+ 

0 

+ 

Feb  .  . . 

+ 

+ 

+ 

+ 

— 

+ 

+ 

0 

+ 

+ 

+ 

+ 

+ 

0 

— 

+ 

+ 

+ 

+ 

Mar 

+ 

+ 

+ 

+ 

+ 

0 

+ 

+ 

+ 

— 

— 

— 

— 

+ 

— 

+ 

+ 

+ 

Apr — 

— 

— 

+ 

+ 

+ 

— 

— 

+ 

— 

— 

+ 

+ 

— 

+ 

+ 

+ 

+ 

May. .  .  . 

+ 

+ 

+ 

— 

— 

+ 

+ 

— 

+ 

+ 

— 

— 

+ 

+ 

— 

— 

— 

+ 

+ 

June..  . 

— 

— 

— 

+ 

+ 

+ 

+ 

+ 

+ 

— 

— 

— 

— 

+ 

+ 

+ 

+ 

+ 

July.  . . 

— 

0 

+ 

+ 

— 

+ 

— 

+ 

— 

+ 

0 

— 

— 

— 

+ 

+ 

+ 

Aug 

+ 

+ 

0 

+ 

— 

+ 

+ 

— 

— 

+ 

+ 

— 

+ 

— 

+ 

— 

+ 

+ 

+ 

Sept. . . 

— 

— 

+ 

+ 

— 

— 

— 

— 

+ 

+ 

— 

0 

+ 

— 

+ 

+ 

+ 

Oct  .  .  . 

— 

+ 

— 

— 

— 

+ 

0 

+ 

+ 

+ 

+ 

+ 

— 

— 

+ 

+ 

_ 

Nov . . . 

.    + 

— 

+ 

+ 

— 

— 

+ 

+ 

+ 

+ 

+ 

— 

— 

— 

— 

+ 

0 

+ 

— 

Dec  .  . . 

— 

+ 

+ 

— 

0 

+ 

+ 

+ 

+ 

— 

0 

+ 

+ 

+ 

— 

+ 

+ 

+ 

— 

Positive  correspwjndences 131 

Zero  correspondences 12 


Negative  correspondences 84 

Degree  of  Correspondence + .  207 


FOLLOWING   MONTH 


Month 

Jan  .  . 
Feb  .. 
Mar .. 
Apr. .  . 
May.. 
June. . 
July. . 
Aug.. 
Sept. . 
Oct  .. 
Nov. . 
Dec  .. 


8. 


-  + 

+  - 

+  - 

+ 


+    +  +  +  + 

-  -  +  + 

-  -  +  o 
+  +  +  + 
+  +  +  + 
+  +  -  + 
+  +  +  + 


-  +  +    +  +    +    + 

+  +  --  +    -- 

+  +  -    +  + 

-  +  +    -  - 

-  + 


o 

-    +  o     -  -  - 

-  +  +  +  +  - 

+  +  --  +  - 


-  + 


+ 
+ 
+ 
+ 


--     +    +     -     +     +     +     +     -0 


-  + 


-      o       -      +      +      + 


+  - 

+  - 

-  + 

+  + 


-    +    +    -     o 
o       -      -     +     + 

+  -  +  -  - 


-  +  +  -  - 

-  +  -  +  + 

-  +  +  +  + 
+  -  -  +  + 

---  +  -  + 

+    +    -  +  o  - 


+  -  -  +  + 


Positive  correspondences 108 

Zero  correspondences 12 


+ 

+ 
+ 

+ 


-     +     + 


Negative  correspondences 107 

Degree  of  Correspondence +  .004 


68 


MONEY  AND   PRICES 


Correspondence  of  Bond  Price  Movement  with  Movement  of  Net  Deposits 
IN  New  York  Clearing  House  Banks  for — 

PREVIOUS   MONTH 


JVlontu  00  00         «         00         00         00         CO 


Jan..  . 
Feb. .  . 
Mar . . 
Apr. .  . 
May. .  . 
June . . 
July.. 
Aug . .  . 
Sept . . 
Oct  .  . 
Nov.  . 
Dec  . . 


+    +    +    +    - 


+    +    +    +    -    +    - 
-     o     +    +    +    +    + 


+    -     -  - 

+  - 

+  + 

-  + 


-  + 
+  + 
+     o 


-      o      -     -     -     +     + 

+  ---  +  +  - 


+ 
+ 


+  +  + 


+  - 

+  + 

+  - 

+  - 

+  o 

+  +  +  +  + 

+  + 


-  +  -  - 

o     —     —     — 


+  +  + 

+  +  - 

+  + 

+  - 


+  + 

+  - 

+  + 

-  + 


o     —     — 


-  + 
+  + 


+ 
+ 
+ 
+ 
+ 


-  + 

+  o 

-  + 

-  + 


+    +    -    -     o 
o     -     +     -     - 


-  + 
+  - 
+  - 


+  + 

-  + 

-  +  - 
+  +  + 

+  + 

+  - 

+  + 

-  + 

-  + 


Positive  correspondences 121 

Zero  correspondences 12 


Negative  correspondences . 
Degree  of  Correspondence . 


+ 


+ 


+     +     +  + 

+     +     +  + 

-     +     -  - 

+  + 

+  + 

+  + 

+  + 

+  + 

+  - 


+ 


93 

+  .124 


SAME   MONTH 

O  MMf^-**/^^  r^00O0t-fNf0'»t>'l\Of^00 

fLjr tU  OO^OOtOiO^OiOiChOOOOO  OOOOO 

Montn        00000000000000000000        c^c^c^c^o^c^o^o>o» 

Jan "+    +  +    -  +    +    +  +  +  +    +    +    -     +  +  +0     + 

Feb -    +    +  +    -  +    +0  +  +  +    +    +0     -  +  --    + 

Mar....-    +    -  +    +o     +-  +  +  ---    +    -  +  +    +    - 

Apr --    +  -    +  --    +  +  -  +    +    -    +    +  +  +    -    + 

May....    -    +    +  +    -  +    +    +  +  +  -    +    +    +    +  --    +    + 

June....    +    +    -  +    +  +    +    +  +  +  -    +    -    +    +  +  +    +    - 

July....    -0+  +    -  +    -    +  +  +0+--    +  -  +    +    + 

Aug +    +0  +-  +    +    +  +  +  +    ---    +  +  -    +    + 

Sept....   +     0+  +    +  --    +  +  +  +0+-    +  -  +    +    + 

Oct _    +    _--  +     o     +  +  +  +    +    +    ---  +    +    + 

N0V....+    -    +  +    -  +    +    +  +  +  -----  +  0     -- 

Dec....+    +    +  -     o  +    +    +  +  +  +    +    +    +    -  +  +    -- 

Positive  correspondences 148        Negative  correspondences 67 

Zero  correspondences 12        Degree  of  Correspondence +-357 


FOLLOWING  MONTH 


Month 

00 

0 
00 

0 

CO 

0 

00 

0 

00 

00 

0. 

00 

0. 

00 

s 

00 

s 

§> 

s 

0 

0 

0 

& 

6 

0. 

M 

8> 

Jan..  .  . 

+ 

+ 

+ 

+ 

+ 

— 

+ 

+ 

+ 

+ 

+ 

+ 

— 

+ 

+ 

+ 

0 

+ 

Feb.... 

+ 

— 

+ 

— 

+ 

+ 

— 

0 

— 

+ 

— 

— 

— 

0 

— 

— 

+ 

+ 

+ 

Mar  . .  . 

+ 

— 

+ 

+ 

0 

+ 

+ 

+ 

— 

+ 

— 

— 

+ 

— 

+ 

+ 

— 

— 

Apr. .  . . 

— 

+ 

— 

+ 

+ 

+ 

— 

— 

+ 

+ 

+ 

— 

— 

+ 

— 

— 

— 

+ 

May. .  . 

— 

+ 

+ 

+ 

+ 

+ 

— 

+ 

+ 

+ 

— 

— 

— 

— 

+ 

+ 

— 

— 

+ 

June..  . 

— 

— 

+ 

+ 

— 

+ 

— 

+ 

+ 

— 

+ 

— 

— 

— 

+ 

— 

— 

+ 

— 

July.  .  . 

+ 

0 

+ 

+ 

+ 

4- 

+ 

+ 

+ 

+ 

0 

— 

— 

— 

+ 

— 

— 

+ 

+ 

Aug . .  . 

+ 

0 

0 

— 

+ 

— 

+ 

+ 

— 

+ 

+ 

+ 

+ 

+ 

+ 

+ 

+ 

+ 

+ 

Sept . . . 

+ 

+ 

+ 

+ 

— 

+ 

— 

— 

+ 

— 

0 

+ 

— 

— 

+ 

— 

+ 

+ 

Oct. .  .  . 

+ 

+ 

— 

— 

+ 

+ 

0 

— 

+ 

+ 

+ 

— 

— 

— 

— 

— 

— 

— 

— 

Nov  . .  . 

+ 

— 

+ 

+ 

— 

+ 

+ 

+ 

+ 

+ 

+ 

— 

+ 

+ 

— 

+ 

0 

+ 

— 

Dec  .  . . 

+ 

0 

+ 

+ 

+ 

+ 

— 

+ 

- 

— 

+ 

+ 

— 

— 

+ 

+ 

Positive  correspondences 127 

Zero  correspondences 12 


Negative  correspondences 88 

Degree  of  Correspondence + .  172 


APPENDIX 


69 


Correspondence  of  Bond  Price  Movement  with  Movement  of  Amount  of 

Money  in  Circulation  in  the  United  States  for — 

second  month  previous 


Month 


Jan..  , 

Feb.. 

Mar  . 

Apr.. 

May.. 

June. . 

July. 

Aug.. 

Sept. 

Oct.. 

Nov. 

Dec. 


+    - 


+    +  + 

+    +  + 

-     -  + 

+  - 

+  + 

—  o 

-  + 


+  o 

+  + 

o  — 

-  + 

-  -  +  + 


+ 


+ 

+ 


-  + 
+  + 

+     o 


+ 


+  +  +  +  +  + 

o       +      +      +      +      + 


-    +    +    4-    o 


+ 

o 

+ 


+ 


+  - 

+  + 

+  + 

+  - 


-  -  + 

-  -  + 
+  +  + 

-  +  + 

-  +  - 

-  +  + 

-  +  + 


+  +  + 

+  -  + 

-  +  + 

-  +  - 

o  +  - 

-  +  + 

+  o  - 


-  -  -  + 


+ 


-  +  - 

+    +  o 

+  +  + 

-  + 


-  + 


+  -  +  - 


+  - 
+  + 


+ 


+  +  +  +  -  +  +  -  +  +  - 


-    +    --0+    +    +    +    -    +    --    +    + 


+ 
+ 


-  + 
+  - 

-  + 

+  - 

+  + 

-  + 

o      -  + 

-  +  + 


Positive  correspondences 117 

Zero  correspondences 16 


Negative  correspondences 9a 

Degree  of  Correspondence +. in 


PREVIOUS  month 


Month      S      S     S 


Jan..  . 
Feb  .. 
Mar.  . 
Apr. .  . 
May.. 
June. . 
July.  . 
Aug.. 
Sept . . 
Oct. . . 
Nov .. 
Dec. . . 


+    +    +    -    +    +    +    +    +    +    +    +    -    +    -+0     + 


+     +     -     +     +     -      o      +     +     +     +     + 
-    +    -    +    -0+--    +    +    +    +     --    + 

+  +  +  ------  +  +  +  -  +  +  + 


-  -  + 

o     —    — 

+  -  - 


+  -  +     o  o  +  + 

+  +  -  +  +  +  + 

+  o  +      +  +  +  + 

0  +  0     —  —  +  + 

-  +  +  +  -  +  + 

-  +  --  +  + 


-  +  +  --- 

-  +  +  ------  +  - 

-    +  +0     +    +    +    ---    + 

--  +    +    --0+    +    -    + 

+    +  -    +     0     -    +    +    --- 

-  +  --  +  -  +  +  +  + 


+  +  --  +  - 
+ 

+ 
+ 
+ 


--    +    +    +    +    +    +    -    +    +    -    +    +    -0     -    + 


-  + 


-o     -    +    +    +    -    +    --    +    +    - 


Positive  correspondences 123 

Zero  correspondences 16 


+     + 


Negative  correspondences 87 

Degree  of  Correspondence +  •  rS9 


SAME 

month 

0 

„ 

„ 

•"I- 

in 

VO 

t^ 

00 

0 

0 

„ 

„ 

■* 

t^ 

Month 

0. 

Ov 

0 

0 

0 

0 

0 

0 

0 

0 

» 

00 

00 

00 

00 

00 

00 

H 

0 

01 

01 

Ov 

0 

o> 

CT 

0. 

Jan..  .  . 

+ 

+ 

— 

+ 

+ 

+ 

+ 

+ 

+ 

+ 

+ 

— 

+ 

— 

+ 

0 

+ 

Feb  . . . 

.   + 

— 

+ 

— 

— 

+ 

— 

0 

+ 

+ 

+ 

+ 

+ 

0 

— 

— 

0 

— 

+ 

Mar  . .  . 

.   + 

— 

— 

+ 

— 

0 

4- 

— 

— 

+ 

+ 

— 

— 

+ 

— 

+ 

+ 

— 

+ 

Apr. .  .  . 

.   + 

+ 

+ 

0 

0 

+ 

+ 

+ 

— 

+ 

+ 

— 

+ 

— 

+ 

— 

— 

— 

May..  . 

.    — 

+ 

+ 

+ 

+ 

+ 

— 

— 

+ 

+ 

— 

+ 

— 

+ 

— 

— 

— 

+ 

— 

June. .  . 

.    + 

+ 

+ 

+ 

+ 

+ 

+ 

— 

+ 

— 

+ 

— 

+ 

+ 

— 

— 

+ 

+ 

+ 

July.  .  . 

.    0 

0 

+ 

— 

+ 

+ 

+ 

— 

— 

+ 

0 

— 

— 

0 

+ 

— 

— 

+ 

+ 

Aug..  . 

.    — 

— 

0 

— 

— 

+ 

— 

+ 

— 

— 

+ 

— 

— 

— 

+ 

+ 

— 

— 

+ 

Sept... 

.    — 

+ 

+ 

+ 

— 

— 

+ 

+ 

— 

— 

+ 

0 

— 

+ 

+ 

— 

— 

— 

+ 

Oct 

.    — 

+ 

+ 

— 

— 

+ 

0 

— 

+ 

— 

— 

+ 

— 

+ 

+ 

+ 

+ 

— 

+ 

Nov  . . . 

— 

— 

— 

+ 

— 

— 

+ 

+ 

+ 

— 

+ 

+ 

— 

+ 

+ 

— 

0 

— 

+ 

Dec. . . . 

.    — 

+ 

— 

— 

0 

+ 

+ 

+ 

+ 

— 

+ 

— 

— 

+ 

— 

— 

— 

+ 

Positive  correspondences 115 

Zero  correspondences 16 


Negative  correspondences 96 

Degree  of  Correspondence + .  084 


70 


MONEY  AND  PRICES 


Correspondence  of  Bond  Price  Movement  with  Movement  of  Amount  of 
Money  in  Circulation  in  the  United  States  for 
Following  Month 


Month       00       00      00      00      00 


ir>       yd         r^ 


Jan. .  .  . 

M 



+ 

" 

+ 

+ 

+ 

+ 

+ 

+ 

+ 

+ 

+ 

"^ 

+ 

_ 

M 

o 

o 

+ 

Feb. .  . . 

— 

+ 

+ 

— 

— 

+ 

— 

o 

+ 

+ 

+ 

— 

— 

o 

— 

— 

+ 

— 

— 

Mar.  .  . 

.     + 

— 

o 

o 

o 

— 

+ 

— 

+ 

+ 

+ 

+ 

— 

— 

— 

— 

— 

+ 

Apr 

— 

+ 

— 

— 

+ 

— 

+ 

— 

+ 

+ 

+ 

+ 

— 

— 

— 

— 

— 

— 

May. .  . 

.     — 

+ 

— 

+ 

+ 

+ 

— 

— 

+ 

— 

+ 

+ 

+ 

— 

— 

— 

— 

— 

— 

June. .  . 

.      O 

+ 

+ 

— 

+ 

+ 

+ 

— 

— 

— 

— 

+ 

— 

o 

+ 

— 

+ 

+ 

— 

July... 

.     — 

o 

+ 

— 

+ 

+ 

— 

+ 

— 

— 

o 

— 

— 

— 

+ 

— 

— 

— 

+ 

Aug .  .  . 

.     — 

— 

o 

— 

— 

— 

— 

+ 

+ 

— 

+ 

— 

— 

— 

+ 

+ 

— 

— 

+ 

Sept... 

— 

+ 

— 

+ 

+ 

— 

+ 

+ 

— 

— 

+ 

o 

— 

+ 

+ 

— 

— 

— 

+ 

Oct 

— 

+ 

+ 

— 

+ 

— 

o 

— 

+ 

— 

— 

+ 

— 

+ 

+ 

+ 

+ 

— 

+ 

Nov .  . . 

— 

— 

+ 

— 

+ 

4- 

+ 

+ 

— 

+ 

+ 

— 

+ 

— 

— 

o 

— 

— 

Dec... 

.     — 

+ 

+ 

— 

o 

+ 

+ 

+ 

+ 

— 

+ 

— 

— 

+ 

— 

— 

— 

+ 

— 

Positive  correspondences 9& 

Zero  correspondences i6 


Negative  correspondences 1 13 

Degree  of  Correspondence —  .066 


Correspondence  of  the  Yearly  Movement  of  Bond  Prices  with  the  Move- 
ment OF  THE  New  York  Clearing  House  Banks 

Specie  and  Legal  Tenders  for —  Net  Deposits  for — 

Previous         Same        Following  2d  Year              ^                Previous  Same       Following 

Year            Year             Year  Following             ^^^               Year  Year           Year 

1890 

-1-       -       -       + 1891 +  -  - 

+       +       -       + 1892 +  +  - 

-  +       -       + 1893 -  + 

-  +       -       - 1894 -  + 

+       -       -       + 189s + 

+       +       -       - 1896 +  +  - 

-  +       +       + 1897 -  +  + 

+       +       +       + 1898 +  +  + 

+       -f       +       + 1899 +  +  + 

+          4-          +          — 1900 +  +  + 

4-         +         —         — 1901 +  +  ~ 

4-         —          —         + 1902 +  —  — 

-i-        4-         —         + 1903 +  +  — 

—  +         —         — 1904 —  +  + 

+         —         —         + 190S +  +  — 

4-         +         —         + 1906 —  +  — 

—  +         —         + 1907 -  +  + 

000      o 1908 o  o  o 


Correspondence  with  Specie  and  Legal  Tenders 


Positive  correspondences . 
Zero  correspondences .  . . . 


Positive  correspondences . 
Zero  correspondences .  .  .  . 


Positive  correspondences . 
Zero  correspondences .  .  .  . 


Positive  correspondences . 
Zero  correspondences .  .  .  . 


previous  year 


Negative  correspondences 5 

Degree  of  Correspondence + .  389 


same  year 


Negative  correspondences 4 

Degree  of  Correspondence + .  500 


FOLLOWING  year 

4       Negative  correspondences 13 

I        Degree  of  Correspondence — .  500 


SECOND   year   FOLLOWING 


Negative  correspondences S 

Degree  of  Correspondence + .  389 


APPENDIX 


71 


Positive  correspondences . 
Zero  correspondences .  .  .  . 


Positive  correspondences . 
Zero  corresjMndences .  . . . 


Positive  correspondences . 
Zero  correspondences . .  . . 


Correspondence  with  Net  Deposits 
previous  year 


Negative  correspondences 6 

Degree  of  Correspondence +.278 


SAME  YEAR 


Negative  correspondences 3 

Degree  of  Correspondence +.611 


FOLLOWING  YEAR 


Negative  correspondences 11 

Degree  of  Correspondence — .  278 


Correspondence  of  the  Yearly  Movement  of  Bond  Prices  and  the  Move- 
ment OF  Both  Per  Capita  and  Total  Circulation  of  Money  in 
the  United  States  for — 


Year 


1890. 
1891. 
1892. 
1893. 
1894. 
1895. 
1896. 
1897. 
1898. 
1899. 


Previous 
Year 


+ 


+ 
+ 

+ 
+ 


Same 
Year 


+ 

+ 
+ 


+ 
+ 

+ 
+ 


Following 
Year 


+ 
+ 
+ 


Year 


1900. 
1901. 
1902. 
1903. 
1904. 
1905. 
1906. 
1907. 
1908. 


Previous 
Year 

.  + 
.  + 
.       + 


+ 
+ 

o 


Same      Following 
Year  Year 


+ 

+ 
+ 

+ 

+ 

+ 
o 


+ 
+ 
+ 

+ 

+ 

+ 

o 


PREVIOUS  YEAR 


Positive  correspondences 11 

Zero  correspondences i 


Negative  correspondences 6 

Degree  of  Correspondence + .  278 


SAME   YEAR 


Positive  correspondences . 
Zero  correspondences . . . . 


Negative  correspondences 4 

Degree  of  Correspondence + .  500 


Positive  correspondences . 
Zero  correspondences . . .  , 


FOLLOWING   YEAR 

9       Negative  correspondences 8 

I        Degree  of  Correspondence +  .056 


Correspondence  of  Stock  Price  Movement  with  Movement  of  Specie  and 

Legal  Tenders  in  New  York  Clearing  House  Banks  for 

Second  Month  Previous 


Month 


Positive  correspondences . 
Zero  correspondences .  .  .  , 


8. 


Jan. .  . . 

H 

M 

+ 



HI 

M 

+ 

W 

0 

+ 

+ 

_ 

M 

+ 

M 

M 

_ 

M 

IH 

M 

W 

Feb. .  . . 

+ 

— 

+ 

+ 

+ 

— 

— 

— 

+ 

+ 

0 

— 

+ 

— 

— 

+ 

+ 

— 

+ 

Mar .  .  . 

— 

— 

— 

+ 

+ 

— 

0 

— 

— 

+ 

+ 

+ 

— 

— 

+ 

— 

— 

+ 

+ 

Apr. .  .  . 

— 

+ 

— 

+ 

— 

— 

+ 

— 

— 

+ 

+ 

+ 

+ 

— 

+ 

— 

+ 

+ 

+ 

— 

May. .  . 

.            + 

0 

+ 

+ 

— 

— 

+ 

+ 

— 

+ 

+ 

+ 

0 

+ 

— 

+ 

+ 

+ 

+ 

— 

June. .  . 

.            + 

+ 

— 

— 

0 

— 

+ 

+ 

— 

— 

— 

+ 

+ 

— 

+ 

— 

+ 

+ 

July... 

+ 

+ 

— 

— 

+ 

— 

— 

— 

+ 

+ 

— 

— 

— 

— 

+ 

— 

+ 

+ 

— 

Aug. .. 

.            — 

+ 

+ 

+ 

— 

+ 

+ 

+ 

+ 

— 

— 

— 

+ 

+ 

+ 

— 

+ 

+ 

+ 

+ 

Sept... 

.            — 

+ 

+ 

— 

+ 

+ 

+ 

+ 

+ 

+ 

— 

+ 

+ 

— 

+ 

+ 

+ 

0 

+ 

— 

Oct. .  .  . 

.            + 

— 

— 

— 

+ 

— 

— 

+ 

+ 

+ 

+ 

— 

+ 

— 

+ 

— 

+ 

+ 

+ 

— 

Nov. . . 

— 

+ 

+ 

+ 

0 

+ 

— 

+ 

— 

— 

— 

— 

+ 

— 

— 

0 

+ 

+ 

— 

+ 

Dec. . . . 

— 

+ 

+ 

+ 

— 

+ 

— 

— 

+ 

+ 

— 

— 

— 

— 

— 

— 

— 

— 

— 

— 

120       Negative  correspondences 108 

9        Degree  of  Correspondence + .  051 


72  MONEY  AND   PRICES 

Correspondence  of  Stock  Price  Movement  with  Movement  of  Specie  and 
Legal  Tenders  in  New  York  Clearing  House  Banks  for — 

PREVIOUS   month 

H/f„«*V.  OiOOOvO>0>0>OOC>0         o         o         o         o         o         o         o         o         o 

JMOnLn  OOOOOOOOOOOOOOGOOOOO  OONOtOOlCOtOtOvO 

Jan +    +    --    +    +0+    +    +0  --    +    --    +    +    - 

Feb + +    -    + +    +    +    + + 

Mar....  4-------     o     --    +    +  +    --    +    +    +    +    - 

Apr +-    +    -    + +    + +    +    +    +    +    +    - 

May....  -0----    +    +    +    +    -    +  04--    +    --    +    + 

June....  -H --+0     -    +    --    +    ---    +    -{ +    + 

July.... +    +    +    +    +    + +    +    +    +    + +    - 

Aug....  -    +    -    +    +    +    -    + +  +    -    +    +    +    +    +    + 

Sept....  +-    + + +    +    -    + + 0+    + 

Oct +    +    +    -    +    +    +    -    +    +    + +    + 

Nov....  --    +    +0    +    +    +    +    --    +  ---    o     -    +    -    + 

Dec +    +    +    +    + +    +    +    +    + + 

Positive  correspondences 119       Negative  correspondences 110 

Zero  correspondences 9        Degree  of  Correspondence + .  038 


Month 


SAME   MONTH 

I  r^        00  On         O  M 


Jan +    +    + -0+    +    +    +    +    +    +    +    +    -    +    + 

Feb +    +    ---    +    +    --    +    +    +    +    --    +    +    +    -    + 

Mar....  -    +    +    +    +    -+0     +    +    ---    +    --    +    +    +    - 

Apr ___    +    4-__    +    _ h +    +    + h    + 

May. ...  +0     ---    +    -    +    +    ---0     -    +    ---    +    + 

June....     ---    +    +    +0     +    +    + h    +    +    -    +    +    +    + 

July.... h-    +    -    +    +    -H +    -    +    +    --    +    - 

Aug....     + +    -    +    + + + +    +    - 

Sept.... h    +    ----    +    4-    +    - 1----0-    + 

Oct -    +    -    +    -    +    +    +    -    +    -- h---    +    -- 

Nov....  +-    +    +0     _    +    -    +    -    +    ----    o    +    +    -    + 

Dec -    +    +    +    +    +    -    +    +    -    o    +    +    +    --    +    H 

Positive  correspondences 119        Negative  correspondences iii 

Zero  correspondences 9        Degree  of  Correspondence +033 


FOLLOWING   MONTH 


Month 


Jan +    +    +    +    +    -  o    +    +    +    +    +    +    +    +    -    +    H 

Feb --    +    +    +    +    -  +    +    ----    +    --    +    +    -    + 

Mar....  +    +    --    +    -    +  0     -    +    +    --    +    ----    +    + 

Apr +--    +    +    +    +  +    -    +    +    +    ------    +    + 

May. ...  +0     -    +    +    +    +  -    +    +    -    +    0     +-    +    -    +    +    + 

June. ...  --    +    +    -    +    0  +-    +    -    +    +    -    +    +    +    +    +    + 

July....  +    +    -    +    +    +    +  -    +    -    +    ---    +    -    +    -    +    + 

Aug ______    +  _-_    +    --    +    _--    +    -- 

Sept....  -    +    +    +    +    -    +  --4-    +    +    +    +    --    +    0 h 

Oct +    +    -    +    +    -    +  --    +    +    +    -    +    --    +    +    -- 

Nov ....  --    +    +0     +    +  -    +    +0     -    +    +    -     o     +--    + 

Dec -    +    -    +    ---  +    +    -    +    --    +    +    +    -    +    + 

Positive  correspondences 130        Negative  correspondences 99 

Zero  correspondences 9        Degree  of  Correspondence +.130 


APPENDIX 


73 


Correspondence  of  Stock  Price  Movement  with  Movement  of  Specie  and 

Legal  Tenders  in  New  York  Clearing  House  Banks  for 

Second  Month  Following 

AJ««*-k  0*0>0«0\O0nO0v0^O0  OOO  OOOOOO 

ivLOnin  OOOOCOOOOOOOCOOOOOOO  O-OOOvOOOOO^O* 

Jan ....  ____4-+o—    —    —    —  —    —    +    —    —    +    +    — 

Feb +---    +    H +    - 1 -    +    -- 

Mar -    +    --    +    H o    --    +    +  --    +   H -    +    + 

Apr +    +    ---    +    ----    +    -  +    +    +    +    -    +    +    + 

May. ...  +o    +    +    —    +    —    —    —    +    —    —  o     —    —    —    —    +    +    + 

June....  +    +    +    +    +    +0 +    -    + + +    +    - 

July....  -    + H +    -    +    --    +  -H -    +    --    + 

Aug....  -    + H --    +    -    +    +  +    +    --    +    +    -- 

Sept....  +    +    +    +    -    +    +    +    -    + +    + o     -    + 

Oct -    +    -    +   +   +    H __o+  +    ---    +    --- 

Nov.... +o     -    +    -    +    +    +    +  -    +    +0     --    + 

Dec -    + + +    +    -    + +    +    -    +    +    - 

Positive  correspondences 104        Negative  correspondences 124 

Zero  correspondences 9        Degree  of  Correspondence —  .084 

Correspondence  of  Stock  Price  Movement  with  Movement  of  Net  Deposits 

IN  New  York  Clearing  House  Banks  for — 

previous  month 


Month 

00 

0. 
00 

00 

0 

00 

00 

00 

00 

00 

0. 

00 

0 

00 

& 

g 

& 

& 

a 

a 

a 

a 

a 

Jan 

+ 

— 

— 

+ 

+ 

0 

+ 

+ 

+ 

+ 

— 

— 

+ 

Feb 

+ 

— 

— 

+ 

+ 

— 

— 

— 

+ 

+ 

+ 

+ 

— 

— 

+ 

— 

— 

— 

— 

Mar .... 

— 

— 

— 

— 

— 

— 

— 

0 

— 

— 

+ 

+ 

+ 

— 

— 

+ 

— 

— 

+ 

— 

Apr 

— 

— 

— 

— 

+ 

— 

— 

— 

+ 

+ 

— 

— 

— 

+ 

+ 

+ 

+ 

+ 

4- 

— 

May. .  .  . 

— 

0 

— 

+ 

— 

— 

+ 

+ 

— 

+ 

— 

+ 

0 

+ 

— 

+ 

+ 

— 

+ 

+ 

June. .  .  . 

+ 

+ 

— 

+ 

— 

4- 

0 

+ 

+ 

— 

— 

— 

— 

— 

+ 

+ 

4- 

— 

+ 

+ 

July.... 

+ 

+ 

+ 

+ 

+ 

+ 

+ 

+ 

— 

+ 

+ 

— 

+ 

+ 

+ 

— 

— 

— 

+ 

— 

Aug 

+ 

+ 

+ 

+ 

— 

+ 

+ 

— 

+ 

— 

+ 

— 

+ 

+ 

— 

+ 

+ 

4- 

Sept .... 

+ 

— 

4- 

— 

— 

+ 

— 

+ 

— 

+ 

— 

+ 

+ 

— 

+ 

+ 

+ 

0 

+ 

4- 

Oct 

.      + 

0 

— 

+ 

— 

+ 

— 

— 

+ 

+ 

+ 

+ 

+ 

+ 

+ 

4- 

+ 

4- 

+ 

— 

Nov  .... 

— 

— 

+ 

+ 

0 

+ 

+ 

+ 

+ 

— 

— 

+ 

+ 

— 

— 

0 

— 

+ 

4- 

+ 

Dec 

+ 

+ 

+ 

+ 

+ 

+ 

— 

+ 

+ 

+ 

— 

+ 

— 

— 

— 

— 

4- 

+ 

— 

— 

Positive  correspondences . . 

127 

Negative 

correspondences .  . 

102 

Zero  correspondences . 

9 

Degree  of  Correspondence . . 

+. 

los 

same 

;  month 

M 

IN 

■* 

Irt 

r^ 

00 

0- 

0 

„ 

„ 

-* 

tn 

vO 

t^ 

00 

Oi 

Month 

Ov 

0 

0 

0 

0 

0 

0 

0 

0 

0 

00 

00 

00 

00 

00 

00 

00 

00 

00 

00 

0. 

0 

Oi 

0. 

0. 

0. 

Cf. 

o\ 

0. 

Jan 

+ 

+ 

+ 

— 

+ 

+ 

0 

+ 

+ 

+ 

+ 

+ 

+ 

+ 

4- 

+ 

+ 

+ 

Feb 

— 

+ 

— 

— 

— 

+ 

+ 

— 

— 

+ 

+ 

+ 

+ 

— 

— 

4- 

— 

— 

— 

+ 

Mar 

.      + 

+ 

— 

+ 

+ 

— 

+ 

0 

+ 

— 

— 

— 

— 

+ 

— 

— 

+ 

4- 

4- 

— 

Apr 

— 

— 

— 

— 

+ 

— 

— 

+ 

+ 

— 

+ 

— 

— 

+ 

+ 

+ 

+ 

— 

+ 

+ 

May. .  .  . 

— 

0 

— 

+ 

— 

+ 

— 

— 

+ 

— 

— 

+ 

0 

— 

— 

— 

— 

— 

+ 

+ 

June. .  .  . 

+ 

+ 

— 

+ 

+ 

+ 

0 

+ 

+ 

— 

— 

+ 

+ 

+ 

+ 

— 

+ 

+ 

4- 

4- 

July.... 

— 

— 

+ 

— 

+ 

— 

+ 

— 

— 

— 

+ 

+ 

— 

4- 

+ 

4- 

— 

+ 

— 

Aug 

+ 

— 

— 

+ 

— 

+ 

+ 

+ 

+ 

— 

— 

+ 

+ 

— 

+ 

4- 

+ 

+ 

+ 

— 

Sept .... 

.      + 

0 

+ 

+ 

+ 

— 

— 

+ 

+ 

+ 

— 

— 

— 

4- 

+ 

4- 

— 

0 

4- 

4- 

Oct 

— 

+ 

— 

+ 

— 

+ 

+ 

+ 

— 

+ 

— 

— 

+ 

+ 

— 

— 

— 

4- 

+ 

— 

Nov 

.      + 

— 

+ 

+ 

0 

+ 

+ 

— 

+ 

— 

— 

— 

— 

— 

— 

0 

4- 

— 

— 

+ 

Dec 

+ 

+ 

+ 

+ 

+ 

+ 

— 

+ 

+ 

+ 

+ 

+ 

+ 

+ 

— 

— 

+ 

— 

— 

— 

Positive  corresponden( 

:es.  , 

1,^2 

Negative 

correspondences.  . 

q8 

Zero  corres 

ipondences . 

9 

Degree  of  Correspondence .  . 

4. 

142 

74 


MONEY   AND   PRICES 


Correspondence  of  Stock  Price  Movement  with  Movement  of  Net  Deposits 
IN  New  York  Clearing  House  Banks  for — 

FOLLOWING   month 

•kr ^u  OsOvOOO*0«00000000000000 

iVlOIlLO  OOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO  OvOOChOvOOiOtOiO* 

Jan +    +    +    +  +    -  o    +    +    +    +    +    +    +    +    +    -    +    - 

Feb +--    +    +  +    --    +    +    -- h--    +   + h 

Mar +   +    -    +   +  -    +  04-   +    +    --    +    --H h   + 

Apr ----    +  +   +  --    +   H h- +   + 

May....  -    o     -    +    +  +    +  -    +    ---    o    +-    +    -    +    +    + 

June....     --+H +    o  +    +    +    +    -    + [-    +    -    +    +    + 

July....  +    +    -    +    +  +    +  + +    -    +    -+    + +    + 

Aug +o +  -    +  + +    +    +    -    +    +    - 

Sept....  -    +    +    +    + h +    +    H + +    o    +    + 

Oct +    +    -    +    +  +    + +    -    +    -    + + 

Nov +-    +    +    o  +    +  -    +    -    +    -    +    +    -    o    +    +    -    + 

Dec -    +    -    +    +  +    -  +    +    -    + +    +    +    -    +    + 

Positive  correspondences 136        Negative  correspondences 93 

Zero  correspondences 9        Degree  of  Correspondence + .  181 

SECOND   MONTH   FOLLOWING 


Month  <§•  tg'  <§' 

Jan "  1  + 

Feb +  -  - 

Mar +  +  - 

Apr _  _  _ 

May. ...  +  o  + 

June. ...  +  +  + 

July +  o  — 

Aug -  +  - 

Sept....  +  +  + 

Oct +  4-  - 

Nov _  _  _ 

Dec -  +  - 

Positive  correspondences . . 
Zero  corresjxjndences .... 


^ 


+ 

+     +  + 

+     +  + 

+ 

+     -  + 

+    +  + 


+     o     - 
+    + 


+ + 

-    + +    - 

+  +    +    +    +    + 

+    +    +     +0 

0+  +  +  -  +  +  ^  + 
+  +  +  -  +  +  -  +  + 


-  +  - 
+  — 
+  +  + 

+  o     + 

-  +  - 


—  +  -  +  +  -  + 


+  +  -  +  + 


+  +  - 


—  +  +  +  +  — 

-  +  +  +  +  -  +  + 
+  +  -  +  —  +  + 

127        Negative  correspondences . 
9        Degree  of  Correspondence . 


+  +  - 

+ +  + 

+  -  +  +  + 

-  +  +  +  + 

+  4-  +  +  - 

+  +  -  +  + 

-  +  +  + 

-  —  o 

-  +  + 


-  + 


+ 


-  + 
+  - 


lOI 

+  .110 


Correspondence  of  Stock  Price  Movement  with  Movement  of  Amount  of 

Money  in  Circulation  in  the  United  States  for 

Previous  Month 


Month 


Jan. .  .  . 

+ 

+ 

+ 

— 

+ 

+ 

0 

+ 

+ 

+ 

+ 

+ 

+ 

+ 

— 

+ 

— 

+ 

— 

Feb. . . . 

+ 

— 

+ 

+ 

+ 

— 

— 

— 

+ 

+ 

+ 

+ 

— 

— 

— 

— 

— 

— 

4- 

Mar., .  . 

.     + 

+ 

— 

+ 

— 

— 

+ 

0 

— 

— 

+ 

+ 

+ 

— 

— 

— 

0 

— 

+ 

— 

Apr 

.     + 

+ 

— 

— 

— 

— 

— 

— 

— 

+ 

+ 

— 

— 

+ 

+ 

+ 

+ 

— 

— 

— 

May. .  . 

.     + 

0 

— 

0 

0 

+ 

— 

+ 

+ 

— 

— 

— 

0 

— 

— 

— 

— 

— 

— 

+ 

June. .  . 

.     + 

+ 

— 

+ 

+ 

+ 

0 

— 

+ 

— 

— 

— 

4- 

— 

— 

+ 

+ 

— 

— 

+ 

July... 

.     + 

+ 

— 

+ 

+ 

+ 

+ 

— 

— 

— 

— 

+ 

— 

+ 

— 

+ 

— 

— 

— 

— 

Aug...  . 

0 

— 

— 

— 

+ 

+ 

— 

— 

— 

— 

+ 

+ 

0 

+ 

+ 

+ 

4- 

+ 

— 

Sept... 

— 

+ 

+ 

+ 

— 

+ 

+ 

+ 

+ 

— 

— 

+ 

+ 

— 

+ 

+ 

4- 

0 

+ 

+ 

Oct. .  .  . 

— 

+ 

+ 

+ 

+ 

+ 

— 

— 

— 

+ 

— 

— 

— 

+ 

+ 

— 

— 

+ 

4- 

Nov 

— 

— 

+ 

0 

+ 

+ 

— 

+ 

+ 

+ 

+ 

— 

+ 

+ 

0 

— 

— 

+ 

— 

Dec. . . . 

.     — 

+ 

— 

+ 

+ 

— 

— 

+ 

+ 

— 

+ 

— 

— 

+ 

+ 

+ 

— 

+ 

+ 

+ 

Positive  correspondences 118 

Zero  correspondences 13 


Negative  correspondences .'....         107 

Degree  of  Correspondence + .  046 


APPENDIX  75 

Correspondence  of  Stock  Price  Movement  with  Movement  of  Amount  of 

Money  in  Circulation  in  the  United  States  for — 

same  month 

■Kr       it,  0>0.0>d.O>OvO>0.0>O.OOOOOOOOOQ 

Montn  OOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO  0\0>OvO>OvOvOvOvO>Oi 

Tan "     +    +    --    +    +0+    +    +    +    +    +    +    -H H 

Feb + +    -    +    -. +    +    +    + o + 

Mar ___    +    --    +    o     --    +  --    +    --    +    --- 

Apr +    +    -0     0+    +    +    -    +    +  +    +    -    +    ----    + 

May....  -o     -    +    +    +    +    +    +    --  +    0     -    +    ----    + 

June....  +    +    +    +    +    +0     -    +    +    +  --    +    -+    +    +    -    + 

July....  oH h    +    H +    -    +    -    +    0     +H -    +    + 

Aug -    + +    -    +    -    +    -  +    +    -+.+    +    -    +    - 

Sept....  -    +    +    +    - h    +    ---    +    H +    +    +0    +- 

Oct -    +    +    +    -    +    + + +    + +    + 

Nov ....  ---+o     -    +    -    +    +    +  +    -    +    +0     -    -    +    - 

Dec -H +    +    +    -    +    +    -    +    --H +    -    -{ 

Positive  correspondences 121        Negative  correspondences 105 

Zero  correspondences 13        Degree  of  Correspondence +.067 


FOLLOWING   MONTH 


Month 


Jan h-    +    +    +o+    +    +    +    +    +    +    -o-H 

Feb 1--    +    -H --    +    +    --    +    --H +    + 

Mar ___o     o+—  o     —    —    +    +    +    —    —    +    —    —    —    + 

Apr h-    +    -    +    -l H __--    + 

May....  -    o    +    +    +    +    +    +    +    +    +    +    o    +H -    +    -    + 

June....  0+    +    -    +    +0  --    +    -    +    +0    +    +    +    +    +    - 

July.... +    +    -  +    +    +    +    -    +    -    +    +    -    +    +    + 

Aug.... +    +    +    -    +    +    -    +    +    +    -    +    + 

Sept....  -    +    -    +    +    -    +  +    ---    +    +    -    +    +    +0+- 

Oct -    +    +    +    +    -    +  ---    +    ---    +    +    --    +    + 

Nov ---+0+    +  -    +    +    +    +    -    +    -0     ---    + 

Dec -    +    +    +    +    +    -  +    +    -    +    --    +    -    +    -    +    -- 

Positive  correspondences 122        Negative  correspondences 104 

Zero  correspondences 13        Degree  of  Correspondence +  .075 


SECOND   MONTH   FOLLOWING 


Month 


Jan +H +    +    +0+    +    +    ---    +    ----- 

Feb -    +    -0     o     -    +    +    -    +    +    +    +    --    +    --    +    - 

Mar +    +    -    +    -    +    +0     --    +    -    +    -    +    +    ---    + 

Apr + +    -    + -    + +    -    + 

May 00+-    +    +    +    +    -    +    --00---    +    +    - 

June. ...  --    +    -    +    +0     +---    +    +    -    +    +    +    -    +    - 

July.... --H -    +    -    +    +    -H +    +    -    +    H 

Aug.  ...     -    +    +    -    + +    +    +    -    +    +    -    +    +    +    -    +    + 

Sept....  -    +    -    +    -    +    +    +    ---    +    +    -    +    +    +0    +- 

Oct -    +    +    +    +    +    H -    -\ ___    +    _--- 

Nov --    +    +0+    +    -    +    +    +    +    -    +    -0     ---    + 

Dec +    +    +    -    +    +    -    +    +    -    +    --    +    -    o     -    +    -    + 

Positive  correspondences 114       Negative  correspondences 112 

Zero  correspondences 13        Degree  of  Correspondence + .  008 


76 


MONEY  AND   PRICES 


Correspondence  of  the  Yearly  Movement  of  Stock  Prices  (Mitchell's  Table) 
WITH  the  Movement  of  the  New  York  Clearing  House  Banks 


Specie  and  Legal  Tenders  for — 
2d  Year         Previous      Same       Following 
Previous  Year  Year  Year 


+ 

— 

— 

— 

+ 

+ 

— 

— 

— 

+ 

— 

— 

+ 

— 

+ 

— 

+ 

— 

— 

— 

+ 

+ 

— 

— 

— 

+ 

+ 

— 

+ 

+ 

+ 

+ 

+ 

+ 

+ 

+ 

+ 

+ 

+ 

+ 

+ 

4- 

— 

+ 

+ 

— 

— 

— 

+ 

+ 

— 

+ 

+ 

— 

+ 

— 

+ 

— 

— 

+ 

— 

— 

+ 

+ 

+ 

— 

+ 

+ 

— 

+ 

— 

+ 

— 

+ 

Year 


1890 


1893 
1894 

1895 
1896 

1897 


1900 
1901 
1902 
1903 
1904 
1 90s 
1906 
1907 
1908 
1909 


Net  Deposits  for — 

2d  Year      Previous       Same        Following 


Previous 

Year 

Year 

Year 

+ 





— 

+ 

+ 

— 

— 

— 

+ 

— 

— 

+ 

— 

+ 

— 

+ 

— 

— 

— 

+ 

+ 

— 

— 

— 

+ 

+ 

— 

+ 

+ 

+ 

+ 

+ 

+ 

+ 

+ 

+ 

+ 

+ 

+ 

+ 

+ 

— 

+ 

+ 

— 

— 

— 

+ 

+ 

— 

+ 

+ 

— 

— 

— 

+ 

+ 

— 

+ 

+ 

— 

+ 

— 

+ 

— 

— 

+ 

— 

— 

— 

+ 

+ 

+ 

Correspondence  of  Specie  and  Legal  Tenders 


Positive  correspondences . 
Zero  correspondences .  .  . . 


Positive  correspondences . 
Zero  correspondences .  . . . 


Positive  corresF>ondences . 
Zero  correspondences .  .  .  . 


Positive  correspondences . 
Zero  correspondences .  .  .  . 


second  year  previous 


Negative  correspondences . 
Degree  of  Correspondence . 


previous  year 


Negative  correspondences S 

Degree  of  Correspondence + .  474 


same  year 


Negative  correspondences 8 

Degree  of  Correspondence +.158 


following  year 


Negative  correspondences . 
Degree  of  Correspondence . 


Positive  correspondences . 
Zero  correspondences .  .  . . 


Correspondence  of  Net  Deposits 


SECOND  year  previous 


Negative  correspondences . 
Degree  of  Correspondence . 


previous  year 


Positive  correspondences 16 

Zero  correspondences o 


Negative  correspondences 3 

Degree  of  Correspondence + .  684 


SAUE  YEAR 


Positive  correspondences . 
Zero  correspondences .  .  .  . 


Negative  correspondences 8 

Degree  of  Correspondence + .  158 


following  YEAR 


Positive  correspondences . 
Zero  correspondences .  . . . 


Negative  correspondences . 
Degree  of  Correspondence . 


APPENDIX 


77 


Correspondence  of  the  Movement  of  Stock  Prices  (Mitchell's  Table)  with 

THE  Movement  of  the  Amount  of  Money  in  Circulation  in  the 

United  States 


Per  Capita  Circui-ation  for- 


k'ear 

Previous 

Same 

Following 

vious 

Year 

Year 

Year 

+ 







+ 

+ 

+ 

— 

— 

— 

+ 

— 

— 

+ 

— 

+ 

— 

+ 

— 

— 

— 

+ 

+ 

— 

— 

— 

+ 

+ 

— 

+ 

+ 

+ 

+ 

+ 

+ 

+ 

+ 

+ 

+ 

+ 

+ 

+ 

+ 

+ 

+ 

+ 

+ 

+ 

+ 

+ 

+ 

+ 

4- 

+ 

+ 

+ 

+ 


+ 


+ 


Year 

1890 
1891 
1892 

1893 
1894 

1895 
1896 
1897 
1898 
1899 
1900 
1901 
1902 
1903 
1904 

1905 
1906 
1907 
1908 
1909 


Total  CracuLATioN  for — 
2d  Year    Previous       Same         Following 


Previous      Year 


Year 


Year 


+ 

+ 

+ 

— 

— 

— 

+ 

— 

— 

+ 

— 

+ 

— 

+ 

— 

— 

— 

+ 

+ 

— 

— 

— 

+ 

+ 

— 

+ 

+ 

+ 

+ 

+ 

+ 

+ 

+ 

+ 

+ 

+ 

+ 

+ 

+ 

+ 

+ 

+ 

+ 

+ 

+ 

+ 

+ 

+ 

+ 

+ 

+ 

+ 

+ 


+ 


+ 


+ 


Per  Capita  Circulation 


Positive  correspondences . 
Zero  correspondences .  .  .  . 


second  year  previous 


Negative  correspondences . 
Degree  of  Correspondence . 


previous  year 


Positive  correspondences 12 

Zero  correspondences o 


Positive  correspondences . 
Zero  correspondences .  .  .  . 


Positive  correspondences . 
Zero  correspondences .  .  .  . 


Negative  correspondences 7 

Degree  of  Correspondence + .  263 


SAME   YEAR 


Negative  correspondences 7 

Degree  of  Correspondence + .  263 


following  year 


Negative  correspondences . 
Degree  of  Correspondence . 


Positive  correspondences . 
Zero  correspondences .  .  .  . 


Positive  correspondences . 
Zero  correspondences .  . .  . 


Positive  correspondences . 
Zero  correspondences .  .  .  . 


Positive  correspondences . 
Zero  correspondences .  .  .  . 


Total  Circulation 
second  year  previous 


Negative  correspondences 11 

Degree  of  Correspondence — .  158 


previous  year 


Negative  correspondences 7 

Degreee  of  Correspondence + .  263 


SAME  year 


Negative  correspondences 7 

Degree  of  Correspondence + .  263 


following  year 


Negative  correspondences 9 

Degree  of  Correspondence + .  053 


78 


MONEY  AND   PRICES 


Correspondence  of  the  Movement  of  Stock  Prices  (Commons  and  Stone's 

Table)  with  the  Movement  of  the  Amount  of  Money  in 

Circulation  in  the  United  States 


Per  Capita  Cikculation  foe- 


Total  Circulation  for — 


+ 


+ 


+ 


+ 


+ 
+ 


+ 
+ 


+        + 
-        + 


+ 
+ 
+ 
+ 


-        + 


+ 
+ 
+ 


E  rt       =3  c<) 


Ph>       c/2><       tn>i 


+ 

+ 
+ 


+ 
+ 

4- 
+ 


+   + 
-   + 


+ 
+ 

+ 


P  aj    T3  O    T?  O 


+  + 
+  + 
+   + 


-   -   -   + 

+   + 

+ 


-   -   + 


+   - 
-   + 


+ 
+ 
+ 
+ 


+ 
+ 
+ 
+ 

+   + 

+ 

+ 

+ 

+ 

+ 


+  - 

+  + 

+  + 

-  + 


+ 
+ 
+ 


+ 


+ 
+ 
+ 


+ 

+ 

+ 
+ 


1879 
1880 


1890 


1893 
1894 

1895 
1896 
1897 


1900 
1 901 


S  0 

^1 

0 

B  "1 

■%k 

■si; 

l^ 

^^ 

•SfS 

+ 

+ 

+ 

+ 

+ 

+ 

+ 

+ 

+ 

+ 

+ 

+ 

- 

- 

- 

- 

+ 
+ 

+ 

+ 

+ 

+ 

_ 

+ 

+ 

+ 
+ 
+ 

— 

+ 

+ 

+ 

_ 

+ 

+ 

+ 

+ 

+ 

+ 

+ 

+ 

+ 

+ 

+ 

+ 

+ 

+ 

+ 

+ 

+ 

+ 

+ 

+ 

+ 

— 

— 

+ 

— 

— 

+ 

+ 

— 

+ 

— 

+ 

+ 

— 

+ 

+ 

— 

— 

+ 

+ 

— 

+ 

+ 

— 

— 

— 

— 

— 

+ 

+ 

+ 

+ 

— 

+ 

+ 

+ 

+ 

+ 

+ 

+ 

+ 

+ 

+ 

+ 

+ 

+ 

+ 

+ 

+ 

Positive  correspondences . 
Zero  correspondences .  .  .  . 


Positive  correspondences . 
Zero  correspondences .  .  .  . 


Positive  correspondences . 
Zero  correspondences .  .  .  , 


Positive  correspondences . 
Zero  correspondences .  .  .  . 


Positive  correspondences . 
Zero  correspondences .  .  .  . 


Positive  correspondences . 
Zero  correspondences .  .  .  . 


Per  Capita  Circulation 


SECOND  year  previous 


Negative  correspondences . 
Degree  of  Correspondence . 


previous  year 


Negative  correspondences 7 

Degree  of  Correspondence +  •  333 


SAME   YEAR 


Negative  correspondences 9 

Degree  of  Correspondence + .  182 


FOLLOWING   year 


13        Negative  correspondences 9 

o        Degree  of  Correspondence + .  182 

SECOND   YEAR   FOLLOWING 

16        Negative  correspondences S 

o        Degree  of  Correspondence + .  524 

THIRD    YEAR   PREVIOUS 

13        Negative  correspondences 7 

o        Degree  of  Correspondence +  .300 


Positive  correspondences . 
Zero  correspondences .  .  .  . 


Positive  correspondences . 
Zero  correspondences .  . . . 


Total  Circulation 


THIRD   YEAR   PREVIOUS 


Negative  correspondences . 
Degree  of  Correspondence . 


-.158 

SECOND   YEAR   PREVIOUS 

Negative  correspondences 5 

Degree  of  Correspondence + .  500 


IS 


APPENDIX 


79 


Positive  correspondences . 
Zero  correspondences .  . .  . 


Positive  correspondences . 
Zero  correspondences .  .  .  . 


Positive  correspondences . 
Zero  correspondences .  .  . . 


PREVIOUS   YEAR 


Negative  correspondences 9 

Degree  of  Correspondence + .  143 


SAME   YEAR 

13 


Negative  correspondences 9 

Degree  of  Correspondence + .  182 


FOLLOWING   YEAR 
17 


Negative  correspondences s 

Degree  of  Correspondence + .  S4S 


SECOND  FOLLOWING  YEAR 


Positive  correspondences 14 

Zero  correspondences o 


Negative  correspondences 7 

Degree  of  Correspondence + .  333 


Correspondence  of  the  Movement  of  the  Prices  of  Farm  Products  with 
THE  Movement  of  Specie  and  Legal  Tenders  in  Chicago 
Clearing  House  Banks  for — 


second  month  previous 


previous  month 


Month     eg' 

Jan. .  . 
Feb. . . 
Mar.  . 
Apr. .  . 
May.. 
June. . 
July.. 
Aug.. 
Sept . . 
Oct. .  . 
Nov.  . 
Dec. . . 


+ +  -  + 

-  +    +  +  + 

-  +    +  +  +  +  +    + 

+  +  +  +    - 

-    +  +  +  + 

+  +  o  -    + 

+    +  - 


+  - 

-  + 

+  - 

+  - 

+  - 

+  +    -    +    + 


+    +    - 


o  + 

+  -  +  - 

-  +  +  + 

-  +  +  + 
+  —  + 


Positive  correspondences 58 

Negative  correspondences 57 

Zero  correspondences 2 

Degree  of  Correspondence + .  009 


-     +     -+    +     -+    +  + 

+    +     -     +    +    +    +    +  - 

+         -     + +    +    +     -  + 

+ +     + + 

+     +     +     -     +     -     +  + 

+ +0+    +  - 

+ + +  + 

-  +-    +    -+0+ + 

-  +    +    +    +    +    +    -    +    +  - 
+        + +    +    + + 

-  +    +    -     +    +     -     +    +    +  + 

-  +    + +    +    +  + 

Positive  correspondences 65 

Negative  correspondences 51 

Zero  correspondences 2 

Degree  of  Correspondence +.119 


SAME  month 


following  month 


Month      <g' 

Jan. .  . 
Feb... 
Mar.  . 
Apr. .  . 
May.. 
June. . 
July.  . 
Aug.  . 
Sept . . 
Oct. .  . 
Nov.  . 
Dec.  . 


+    +  +  +    +    +    - 

+ +  -    +    +    + 

+    +    -  + 

-    +    +  +    +    + 

-    +  +  - 


+ 
+ 


+ 


+  -  + 

-    +    +  +  - 

+  -  o 

+    +    + 

+  +  + 

+  + 

+  + 


Positive  correspondences .  . 
Negative  correspondences . 

Zero  correspondences 

Degree  of  Correspondence . 


-     + 


+ 

+  +  + 
o  +  - 
+ 

+    -  + 


H 


+   + 


+   + 


+      +-    +    +    -    + +  - 

-  +    +   +   +    -    +    -    +    +  + 

-  + +    +0+-  + 

+       + +    +0-    +    -  + 

-  -    +    +    + + + 

-    + +    -    +    +    -  + 

+    + +    +    -  + 

-  +-    +    -    +    -    +    +    - 

Positive  correspondences 50 

Negative  correspondences 66 

Zero  correspondences 2 

Degree  of  Correspondence — .  136 


8o 


MONEY   AND   PRICES 


Correspondence  of  the  Movement  of  the  Prices  of  Farm  Products  with  the  Move- 
ment OF  Gross  Deposits  in  Chicago  Clearing  House  Banks  for — ■ 


SECOND   MONTH  PREVIOUS 


previous   MONTH 


MOO  00»00»0»ChO»00» 

Jan.           __  +  __     +     +     __ 

Feb.           --  +  -     +     +     +     -     + 

Mar.          +     +  +  +     +     +     +     +     + 

Apr.  +     +     +  +  -     +     +     +     +     + 

May  +-     +  +  -     +     ---- 

June  —     —     —  —  -{-—      o      —     —     — 

July   +-     +  +  +     -     +     --     + 

Aug.  --     +  --      0+-     +     - 

Sept.  -     +     --  +     +     -     +     -     + 

Oct.  -f-     +  +  +     -     +     +     +     - 

Nov.  -     +     -  +  +     --     +     +     - 

Dec.  ---  +  ----     +     - 

Positive  correspondences 66 

Negative  correspondences 50 

Zero  correspondences 2 

Degree  of  Correspondence + .  136 


----      +      +      -      +  - 

-      +      -      +      +      +      +      +  - 

--      +      +      +      +      +      +      +  + 

+  +  +  +  --  +  --  + 
+      -      +      +      +      +      +      --- 

----      +     +0+     +  - 

+  -  +  +  -  +  ---  + 
+      -      +      --       0      +      --- 

-  +  -  +  -  +  -  +  +  + 
---  +  +  +  +  --  + 
+      +      -      +      +     +      +      +      +  + 

-  +      +     +      ---      +     +  - 

Positive  correspondences 59 

Negative  correspondences 56 

Zero  correspondences 2 

Degree  of  Correspondence +.026 


SAME   MONTH 


FOLLOWING  MONTH 


SECOND   MONTH  FOLLOWING 


o       oiooooooooo        0.000000000 

^H         00       0vOiO»O>O>O>OOtO         C0       0>0>0»0»0.0\00\0 

Jan.        -  +  +  +  +  + +  +  +  +  +  +  +  --  + 

Feb.   +  +  +  -  +  +  +  +  +  -     +  +  +  -  +  -  + 

Mar. +  +  +  -  + + +  + + 

Apr.   +  +  +  +  + +  +  +  +  +  +  +  -  +  +  + 

May  +  -  +  +  +  -  +  +  +  -  +-  +  +  -  +  -  +  +  - 

June o+H H hoH 

July +  + +  + +  -H + 

Aug.  +-  +  +  +0+-  +  - +  +0+  +  -  + 

Sept.  +  +  +  + -  +  +  +  -  +  + + 

Oct.    +--  +  + +  +  +  +  +  --  +  -- 

Nov.  +  -  +  +  +  +  +  -  +  +  +--  +  -  +  -  +  +  + 

Dec.  -  +  -  +  +  -  +  -  +  -  --  +  -  +  -  +  +  - 

Positive  correspondences 64  Positive  correspondences ....         63 

Negative  correspondences 53  Negative  correspondences ...         53 

Zero  correspondences 2       Zero  correspondences 2 

Degree  of  Correspondence.  .  .  .  +  092  Degree  of  Correspondence.  . .  +-085 


10      ^0        I^     00 
0000 

0»       0^       O.       O* 


+  +  +  +  +  +  +  +  + 
+  +  +  +  -  +  +  +  +  + 
+     -     +     +     -     + 

+     -     +     +     +     -     +     --     + 

--  +  --0+-  +  - 

Positive  correspondences ....         59 
Negative  correspondences ...         56 

Zero  correspondences 2 

Degree  of  Correspondence. . .  +.026 


APPENDIX 


8l 


Correspondence  of  the  Movement  of  Speculative  Prices  with  the  Movement  of 
Specie  and  Legal  Tenders  in  Chicago  Clearing  House  Banks  for — 


THIRD   WEEK  PREVIOUS 


SECOND   WEEK  PREVIOUS 


PREVIOUS   WEEK 


vo  r~  00 


•n  vo  »^  00 
O   O   O   Q 

Ot   Ot   Ot   Oi 


I..     -  +  +  -  +  --  +  + 

2..     --  + +  + 

3-.    +  +  -  +  +  +  -  +  - 
4.- +  +  +  -  +  - 

s-.  +-  +  --  +  --  +  - 

6..  -  +  -  +  +  +  +  +  +  - 

7..  -  +  +  --  +  +  +  +  - 

8.. +  -  + 

9-.  -  +  +  +  -  +  -  +  +  - 

lo..  + +  -  +  +  + 

II..  +-  +  --  +  +  -  +  + 

12..  + +  +  -  +  + 

13- ■  --  +  +  +  +  +  +  +  + 

14..  +  +  +  -  +  -  +  +  -  + 

IS--  -  +  +  --  +  -  +  -- 

16.. +  +  +  -  +  +  + 

17--  +  +  +  +  +  -  +  +  +  + 

18..  +-  + +  +  + 

19.. + +  -  +  + 

20..  -+oH +  -  +  + 

21.. h +  -  +  +  - 

22..  -I 1 1 1-  + 

23-.  -  +  --  +  +  +  -  +  + 

24..  +  +  +  +  +  -  +  +  +  - 

25.. o-j 1-  + 

26..  -  + +  -  + 

27..  +  +  +0  -  +  -  +  -- 

28..  —  +  +  +  + + 

29..  -\ +  -  + 

30..  +  +  +  +  —  +  —  + 

31.. +  +0  --  + 

32..  +-  +  -  +  +  +  -  +  - 

33- ■  +-  +  --  +  + 

34..  +  +  +  -  + +  + 

35--  + +  --  +  - 

36..  --  + +  +  +  -- 

37.. +  +  +  + 

38..  + +  -  +  + 

39..  -  +  +  -  +  -  +  --  + 

40..  -  +  --  +  +  +  -  +  + 

41..  -  + + + 

42..  + +  +  +  +  +  + 

43--  -  +  + +  +  - 

44--  -  +  -  +  +  + + 

45..  -  +  -  +  +  +  +  +  +0 

46..  -  +  --  +  --  +  +  - 

47..  + +  --  +  +  - 

48..  +  +  +  +  +  -  +  + 

49..  -  +  +  +  +  -  +  -  +  + 

SO..  -  +  -  +  +  +  + 

SI--  -  +  +  -  +  --  +  +  + 

S2..  +  +  --  + + 

+  + 

Positive  correspondences 265 

Negative  correspondences  ....       248 

Zero  correspondences S 

Degree  of  Correspondence.  .  .  .  +.033 


--  +  +  -  + 

--  +  +  +  + 

+  +  + 

+  +  + 


+ 


+ 


-  +  -  +  -+  + 
-+  +  +  -+  + 
+  +  -  +  --  + 

-  +  -  +  -  +  - 
+  -  +  -  +  +  + 
+  -  +  + 

-  +  +  --  +  - 

-  +  -+  +  +  - 
+  +  --  +  +  + 

-  +  -  +  --  + 
+  -  +  +  --  + 
--  +  +--  + 

-  -  o    -  +  -  -t- 

-  +  +  +  +  -- 
+ + 

-  -  +  -  o  +  - 

+  + +  - 

-  -+  o   -  -  + 

-  +  +  -  +  -- 

-  +  --  +  +  + 
+  +  +  +  +  -  + 
--  +  -  +  +  - 

-  +  --  +  +  o 

-  + +  + 

+ +  + 

-  + +  - 

+ +  +  + 

+ +  +  + 

+  +  -  - 


-  +  + 
+  -  + 

-  +  - 

-  +  - 
+ 


Positive  correspondences .  . 
Negative  correspondences .  , 

Zero  correspondences 

Degree  of  Correspondence . 


+  -  - 

+ 

+  +  + 

+  +  + 

+  +  + 

-  +  + 
+  -  + 
+  -  + 
+  -  + 
+  -  + 

-  -  + 
+  +  - 

-  +  + 
+  +  - 
+  +  + 
+ 

-  +  + 
+  +  + 
+  +  - 
+  +  + 

-  +  + 
+  -  - 

-  +  - 

-  -  + 

-  +  + 

-  +  + 

-  -  + 
+  +  + 

+  -  + 

+  +  + 

-  +  - 

-  -  + 

-  +  + 
+  +  + 

+  -  - 

+  +  + 

+  +  o 

-  +  - 
+  -  - 
+  -  + 

-  +  + 
+  -  + 

-  +  - 
+ 

+ 

26g 

24s 

S 

.+.046 


-   -  + 

+  +  + 

+ 

-  +  -  - 
+  -  +  + 
+  +  +  + 

-  +  +  + 

+ 

+  -  +  + 

-  +  +  + 
+  +  -  + 
+  +  +  + 

+ 

+ 

-  -  +  - 


-  +  - 
+  +  + 
+  +  + 
+  +  + 
+  +  - 

-  +  + 

+ 

+  +  + 

+  +  + 

+  -  + 
+ 

-  +  + 


+  -  + 

+  -  + 

-  +  - 

-  +  - 


+  -  + 
+  -  + 


+  +  - 

-  +  + 
+  +- 
+  +  + 
+  +  + 
+  -  + 
+  +  + 
+  -  + 
+ 

-  +  + 


-  +  +  +  +  +  + 

+ +  + 

+  -  +  -  +  -  + 
+  o  +  - 

+  -  +  o    -  +  + 

+  +  -  + 

++  o 

-  + +  - 

-  + 

+ +  -  + 

+  -  +  —  +  - 
+  +  +  - 

-  +  +  + 

+  - -  +  +  — 

+  H +  +  + 

+  —  +  +  +  + 

-  -  +  + 

+ 

Positive  correspondences . 
Negative  correspondences . 
Zero  correspondences .... 
Degree  of  Correspondence 


-  +  - 
+  +  - 

-  +  - 

-  -  + 
+  +  + 
+  +  + 

-  +  - 

-  +  - 
+  +  + 
+  +  - 
+  +  - 

-  +  - 

-  +  + 

-  +  - 

-  +  - 


+  - 

+  - 

+  - 


+ 
+ 
+ 
+ 
+  +  - 

-  +  - 

-  -  + 

+  -  4- 

-  +  - 

-  +  - 
+  +- 

-  +  o 

+  -  + 
+  -  + 
+  +  - 

-  +  - 

-  -  + 


262 

253 

S 

.+.017 


82 


MONEY  AND   PRICES 


Correspondence  of  the  Movement  of  Speculative  Prices  with  the  Movement 
OF  Specie  and  Legal  Tenders  in  Chicago  Clearing  House  Banks  for — 


SAME   ^ 

tVEEK 

FC 

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4- 

4- 

+ 

4- 

+ 

4- 

+ 

— 

53- ■ ■ • 
Positive  corres 

pondences 
spondence 

252 
263 

Positive  < 
Negative 

orrespondences .  . 
correspondences .  . 

256 

Negative  corre 

.  .  . 
-S.  . 

2S9 

Zero  corresDondences .  . 

5 

Zerc 

)  correspondences .  . 

5 

Deg 

ree 

of  Correspondence .  . 

— .( 

321 

Degree  of  Correspondence . 

—  .006 

APPENDIX 


83 


Correspondence  of  the  Movement  of  Speculative  Prices  with  the  Movement 
OF  Specie  and  Legal  Tenders  in  Chicago  Clearing  House  Banks  for — 


SECOND   week  following 


third  week  following 


Week 


*"* 

M 

+ 

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+ 

+ 

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+ 

— 

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+ 

+ 

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— 

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— 

— 

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— 

— 

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— 

+ 

— 

+ 

+ 

— 

— 

— 

+ 

— 

— 

+ 

— 

+ 

— 

— 

+ 

— 

— 

— 

— 

+ 

+ 

+ 

+ 

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— 

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— 

— 

+ 

+ 

— 

+ 

— 

+ 

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— 

+ 

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— 

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— 

— 

— 

+ 

+ 

+ 

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— 

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— 

— 

— 

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— 

— 

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+ 

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— 

— 

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— 

— 

— 

4- 

+ 

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— 

— 

— 

— 

+ 

— 

— 

0 

— 

— 

— 

— 

— 

— 

+ 

+ 

— 

0 

— 

— 

— 

— 

— 

+ 

+ 

+ 

— 

— 

— 

+ 

— 

+ 

— 

+ 

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— 

— 

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— 

— 

— 

+ 

+ 

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— 

+ 

— 

+ 

+ 

— 

— 

— 

+ 

+ 

— 

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+ 

— 

+ 

— 

+ 

+ 

— 

+ 

— 

+ 

+ 

+ 

+ 

+ 

— 

— 

— 

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+ 

— 

— 

+ 

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— 

+ 

— 

— 

+ 

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— 

— 

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+ 

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+ 

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+ 

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+ 

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— 

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— 

— 

— 

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+ 

+ 

+ 

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— 

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— 

— 

+ 

+ 

+ 

+ 

+ 

+ 

+ 

+ 

+ 

+ 

+ 

+ 

+ 

— 

+ 

+ 

+ 

+ 

+ 

+ 

+ 

+ 

— 

Positive  correspondences .  . 
Negative  correspondences . 

Zero  correspondences 

Degree  of  Correspondence. 


24g  Positive  correspondences 3S7 

26s  Negative  correspondences 256 

5  Zero  correspondences $ 

—  .031  Degree  of  Correspondence +.ooa 


84 


MONEY  AND   PRICES 


Correspondence  of  the  Movement  of  Speculative  Prices  with  the  Movement 
OF  Gross  Deposits  in  Chicago  Clearing  House  Banks  for — 


SECOND   WEEK  PREVIOUS 


PREVIOUS   WEEK 


Week 


12 
13 
14 

IS 

16 

17 
18 

19 

20 

21 
22 

23 
24 

25 
26 
27 
28 
29 
30 
31 
32 

33 
34 
35 
36 
37 
38 
39 
40 

41 
42 
43 
44 
45 
46 

47 
48 

49 
5° 
51 
52 
53 


-  +  - 

-  +  + 
+ 

-  + 

+  - 

+ 

-  + 

+ 

-  +  +  - 
+  +  +  - 
+ 

-  +  +  - 

+ 

+  + 


-  + 
-  +  - 


+  + 
+  - 
+  - 


+  + 


-  +  +  + 
+  -  +  + 
+  +  +  + 

-  H 

-  +  - 
4-  +  + 
o  +  + 
+ 

-  +  + 

+ 

+  +  - 

-  +  + 


+  + 

+  - 

+  + 

+  + 

+  + 

+  + 

+  + 

+  - 

+  - 

-  + 
+  + 

-  + 
+  + 

-  + 

-  + 

-  + 

+  - 

+  - 

+  - 
+ 


+  - 


+  +  + 

+  - 
+ 

-  -  + 

+ 

+  +  + 

+  +  - 

+  +  + 

-  +  + 

+ 

+ 

+  +  - 


+  -  - 

+  +  + 

+  -  + 

+  +  + 

-  -  + 

+  +  + 


+ 


+  + 
+  - 


+  + 

+  + 


+  - 

-  + 

-  + 
+  - 

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+  + 


+  + 

+  + 

+  - 

-  + 

-  + 


+ 


o  —  — 


+  - 
+  + 


+  - 


-  + +  -    - 


+  +  + 

+  + 

-  + 

+ 

+  + 

+  + 
+ 


+  - 

-  + 


—  + 


-  + 

-  + 


+ 
+  + 


-  +  + 

-  +  + 

-  +  +  - 

—  +  + 
+  +  +  + 

+ 


+  + 
-\ — 

+  + 
-  + 
+  - 
+  + 


+  — 

-  +  + 

-  +  - 
+  +  + 
+  +  - 

-  -  + 
+  +  + 

-  +  - 
+  + 

-  + 
+  + 

-  + 

-  + 

-  + 


Positive  correspondences .  . 
Negative  correspondences . 

Zero  correspondences 

Degree  of  Correspondence . 


+ 

H 

+    -    + 


248 

268 

3 

-■039 


-    +    + +   + 

+    +    -    +    +   +   +    -    + 

-  -    + +   + +    - 

-  + +    +    -    +    - 

-  -    +    + + +    - 

-  -    +    +   +    +   +    +    +    +    - 

-  +    +    +    -    +    -    +    + 

-  +    + +    +    -    +    +    - 

+ +    + +    +    + 

+ +    +    +    +    +    -    + 

+      +    +    +    +    +   +    + 

-  + +    +    --    +    +    + 

+       -    +    -    + + 

+    +   + 

+ +    -    +    +    -    +    - 

+    -    +    +   +    +   +    + 

+      +-    +    - +   +    - 

+ +    -    +    -    +    -    +    - 

+    -    +   + 

-  +    +    + + +    + 

-  -    +    -    + +   +    -    + 

+ + +    - 

+    +    -    +   +   +    +    -    + 
_       +    + +   + 

+  0+  +    +    -+   +    -    +  + 

+  +    +    + +    + + 

+ +    +   +    +    -+    +  - 

-  +   +    + +    +  + 

+  +    +    -    +    +    + +  + 

-  -    + + + 

+        +    +  + +0-  +     + 

-    +  - +    +    +  +    + 

+    -  +    -    +  + 

+ + + 

+       +-  + + +    - 

-  +-  + +    +    +  +    - 

-  +    + +    +    -  +    - 

-  -    +  + +    -    +  +    + 

+ +  +  -  +    -    + 

+  +    +    +    -  +  -  +  +    -    + 

+ -  +  +  + 

-  -    + +  +  -  +    +    - 

+  + +  +  -  +  +    +    - 

o  + -  +  +  +  -+0 

-     —  + +  +  +  + 

+    -  +  +  +  —  +  -  +  + 

4-      H +    ----    +   +   + 

+      --    +   +   +    -- 1-   + 

+ +   + 

+      +   +   +   + + 

+      -    + +    -    +    -    +   + 

+  + 

Positive  correspondences 261 

Negative  correspondences 256 

Zero  correspondences 3 

Degree  of  Correspondence + .  010 


APPENDIX 


85 


Correspondence  of  the  Movement  of  Speculative  Prices  with  the  Movement  of 
Gross  Deposits  in  Chicago  Clearing  House  Banks  for — 


SAME  week 


following  week 


second  week  following 


O  M  « 


1/^    vO      e^    00 


+  +  -  -  + 
+ + 

++++++ 

+  + 

+ +  - 

+  + 

o  +-  +  +  + 

-  +  + 

+  +  - 

+  + + 

+  +  + 

-  + + 

+  +  + 

++++++ 

-  +  + 


9 

lO 

II 

12 

13 

14 

IS 

16 
17 
18 

19 

20 

21 
22 

23 
24 

25 

26 

27 
28 

29 
30 
31 
32 

33 
34 
35 

36 

37 

38 

39 
40 

41 
42 
43 
44 
45 
46 

47 
48 

49 
50 
SI 
52 
53 

Positive  correspondences. .  . 
Negative  correspondences. . 

Zero  correspondences 

Degree  of  Correspondence . 


-  +  -  + 

-  +  -  + 
+  -  +  - 
+  -  +  - 

-  -  +  - 
+  +  +  - 
+  -  +  - 
+  +  +  - 
+  +  -  + 
+  +  -  - 

-  +  +  + 

+  - 

+ 

+  -  +  + 

-  +  -  + 

-  -+  + 
+  -+  + 

+  +  -  - 

+  +  -  + 

+  -  -  + 

+  +  +  - 

+  -+  + 

+  -  +  - 

-  +  -  + 

-  +  +  + 

-  -  +  + 
o  +  +  - 

-  -  +  + 

-  +  +  - 
+  +  +  + 
+  -  +  - 

-  -  +  + 
+  -  +  - 

-  +  +  + 

-  +  +  + 

+ 

+  -  +  + 

+  - 

+  +  +  o 

+  +  +  + 
+  +  +  + 

-  +  -  + 
+ 

—  +  - 

+ 

+  +  +  - 


+  -  + 

-  +  + 
+  +  - 
+  -  + 
+  -  + 
+  -  - 
+  +  + 

-  +  + 

-  + 


+  -  +  + 
+  -  +  + 

-  +  +  + 

-  +  +  + 

+  +  +  + 
+  -  +  - 

-  +  — 

-  -  +  + 


+  +  - 
+  -  - 
+  -  + 
+  +  - 
+  +  - 
+  -  - 

-  -  + 
+  -  + 

-  +  + 
+  +  - 
+  -  + 
+  -  - 

o    +  + 

-  +  - 

-  +  + 

-  +  + 

-  +  - 
+  -  - 
+  +  - 
+  -  - 

-  +  + 

+  +  - 

-  -  + 

-  + 

-  -  + 

-  -  + 
+  +  + 
+  +  - 
+  +  + 

-  +  + 

+  +  + 
+  +  + 

-  + 
+  +  - 

-  +  - 
+  -  - 
+  +  - 


+  +  +  - 

-  +  +  - 

-  -  +  - 
+  +  -  + 

+ 

+ 

+  +  +  - 
+  -  +  + 
+  -  +  - 

-  -  +  + 
+  -  +  + 

-  +  +  + 

-  +  -  + 
+  +  +  + 
+  -  -  + 

-  +  +  - 

-  +  - 

-  +  +  - 

-  -  +  - 

-  -+  o 

+  +  +  - 
+  +  -  + 

-  -  +  - 

-  +  +  + 

-  +  -  + 

-  +  +  + 

-  -  +  - 

-  +  +  + 

-  +  -  - 
+  -  +  - 

-  -  +  + 
+  +  +  + 
+  -  -  + 

-  +  +  + 

-  -  +  + 

-  +  +  - 
+  -  -  + 
+  +  +  + 


+  -  + 
+  -  + 

-  +  - 

-  +  - 

-  +  - 


-  +  - 
+  — 
+  -  - 

-  +  + 

-  +  - 

-  +  - 

-  +  + 
+  — 

-  +  - 
+  -  + 

-  +  - 
+  +  - 

-  + 

-  -  + 
+  +  + 

-  -  + 
+  +  + 
+  +  - 


+++-+- 


253  Positive  correspondences .  . 

264  Negative  correspondences. 

3  Zero  correspondences 

,  —  .02I  Degree  of  Correspondence . 


-  -  + 
+  -  + 
+  +  - 

+  +  - 

-  +  - 
+  -  + 
+  -  + 
+  +  + 
+  -  - 

-  -  + 
+  +  - 

+ 

+  -  + 

-  +  - 

+  -  + 

+  +  + 

+  +  + 

+  +  o 

-  +  + 
+  -  + 
+  +  - 

-  -  + 

-  +  - 
+  -  + 
+  - 

26s 

232 

3 

.+.02S 


-  +  + 

+ 

+  -  + 

+  +  + 
+  +  - 

+  -  - 
+  +  - 

+  +  - 

+  -  + 

-  +  - 
+  +  + 

-  +  - 
+  -  - 
+  -  + 

-  +  - 
+  -  + 
+  +  + 

-  -  + 
o  —  — 

-  +  + 

-  +  - 
+  +  + 
+  — 
+  +  - 

+  -  - 

-  -  + 
+  -  - 

-  +  - 
+  -  + 
+  +  + 
+  -  - 

-  +  - 

-  -  + 


+  +  + 
+  +  + 

-  +  + 

-  +  - 

-  -  + 

-  + 

-  +  - 

+  -  - 
+  -  + 
+  +  + 
+  +  + 

-  +  - 


+  +  - 

-  +  + 
+  -  + 

-  +  + 
+  +  - 
+  +  + 

-  +  + 
+  +  - 
+  -  + 
+  -  + 

-  +  - 
+  -  - 

-  +  - 

-  +  + 

-  -  + 
+  +  + 
+  — 
+  +  - 

-  +  + 

-  +  + 


+  +  - 
+  +  - 
+  +  - 
+  +  - 
+  +  + 
+  -  + 

+  +  - 

-  +  - 

-  +  + 

-  -  + 

-  +  + 


+  +  - 
+  +  + 


+  + 


-  +  + 

-  + 

-  +  + 
+  +  - 


-  +  -  + 
+  +  -  + 
+  -  +  - 
+  -  +  - 

-  +  -  - 

+ 

-  +  -  + 

-  -  +  + 

-  +  +  - 

-  -  +  - 
+  -  -  + 
+  +  -  - 
+  -  +  + 
+  +  +  + 

-  +  — 
+  +  +  + 
+  -  -  + 

-  +  -  - 
+  +  +  - 
+  -  +  + 
+  +  +  + 
+  +  +  + 
+  +  -  + 
+  -  +  + 
+  -  -  + 

-  +  — 

-  +  -  + 
+  -  +  - 

o    + 

+  +  +  - 

-  +  -  + 
+  -  -  + 
+  +  -  + 

-  +  — 

+ 

+  +  +  - 

+  -  +  - 
+  +  -  + 
+  -  -  + 

-  -  +  - 

-  +  +  + 

+  -+  o 

+  -  -  + 

-  +  +  - 
+  +  +  + 
+  -  -  + 

-  +  +  + 
+  +  + 

+  +  - 


Positive  correspondences ....       264 
Negative  correspondences ..  .       252 

Zero  correspondences 3 

Degree  of  Correspondence. . .  +.023 


86 


MONEY  AND  PRICES 


Correspondence  of  the  Movement  of  Speculative  Prices  with  the  Movement  of 
Specie  and  Legal  Tenders  in  the  Chicago  Clearing  House  Banks  for — 


second  month  previous 


previous  month 


same  month 


Jan.        +  -  +  +  - 
Feb.        -  +  +  +  + 

Mar.       +  -\ h  - 

Apr. +  - 

May  +  + + 

June  -  +  +  +  -  + 


July 

Aug. 

Sept. 

Oct. 

Nov. 

Dec. 


+  +  + 

-  + + 


Positive  correspondences.  . 
Negative  correspondences . 

Zero  correspondences 

Degree  of  Correspondence . 


-+  +  -            -  +  +  +  +  +  --  + 

+  +  -  +  +  +  +  +  - 

+  +-+ +  --  +  +  +  + 

-  +  -+  + +  +  +  + + 

+  --+  +-  + +  -  +  - 

+  +  +  +  +  +  -  +  -  + 

--++  -  +  + +  + + 

+  +-  +  -  +  + 

+  +  -+      -+  +  -+  +  --+  + 

+  -      ++--  +  + +  + 

---+      +--  +  --  +  +  -- 
55       Positive  correspondences.  ...         64 
62       Negative  correspondences ...         S4 

o      Zero  correspondences o 

.  — .  060      Degree  of  Correspondence .  . .  + .  085 


+  +  -  +  +  -+  +  + 

+  -  +  +  +  -- 

+ +  --  +  + 

+  +  +  +  +  -  +  -  +  - 

--  +  -  +  -  +  +  +  + 

-  +  +  -+  +  +  +  +  + 

-  +  +  +  +  +  + 

+  -  + +  - 

+  +  +  -- 

-  +  +  -  +  +  --  +  - 
+  +  -+  +  +  - 

-  +  -  +  +  + +  4- 

Positive  correspondences 64 

Negative  correspondences SS 

Zero  correspondences o 

Degree  of  Correspondence.  .  .  .  +.076 


following  month 


second  month  following 


--   +   -   +   -   +   -   + 


Jan. 

Feb.  +  -  -  -  - 

Mar.  +  +  +  -  - 

Apr.   -  +  +  +  - 

May  +  -  +  +  + 

June  —  +  +  +  — 

July  +  +  -  -  - 

Aug.  +  -  -  +  + 

Sept.  —  —  —  —  — 

Oct.    +  -  +  +  + 

Nov.  +  +  -  +  - 

Dec.  +  +  +  +  + 

Positive  correspondences 

Negative  correspondences 

Zero  correspondences 

Degree  of  Correspondence 


+ 
+ 


+  +  + 

-  +  - 

+  +  + 

+  - 

+  +  - 

+  +  - 

+  +  + 


+ 
+ 


+      - 


+      - 


+ 
+ 
+ 


+      +      + 

63 

SS 

o 

+.068 


-  +       -  -       + 

-  +       +  +      + 

-  +  -  -  + 
+  +  -  +  + 
+  ----- 

-  +      +      +  -       +  --- 

-  +      +      +  --  +      +       - 
----  +       -  +       -       + 


+  +  + 

-  +  + 
+  +  + 
+  -  + 
+  +  - 

-  +  - 
+  -  - 
+  +  - 


-  + 
+      + 

-  + 


-       + 


-       + 


Positive  correspondences .  . 
Negative  correspondences . 

Zero  correspondences 

Degree  of  Correspondence . 


-.128 


Correspondence  of  the  Movement  of  Speculative  Prices  with  the  Movement  of 
Gross  Deposits  in  the  Chicago  Clearing  House  Banks  for — 


previous  month 


same  month 


following  month 


so       t^     00 


t~    00 


Jan.        --  +  -  +  -  + 

Feb.        -  +  -  +  +  +  +  +  - 
Mar.  -  +  +  -  +  -  +  +  -  + 

Apr.   -  +  +  +  -  + + 

May \ hH + 

June  +  +  +  +  -  +  -  +  -  + 

July   +  +  +  + +  -  +  + 

Aug.  +  -  + + + 

Sept. + +  + 

Oct.    +  +  +  -  +  +  +  -+  + 

Nov.  +  + + +  + 

Dec. 1 \ h 

Positive  correspondences 61 

Negative  correspondences 57 

Zero  correspondences o 

Degree  of  Correspondence ....+.  034 


-  +  -  +  +  -  +  +  + 

-  +  +  -  +  +  +  +  +  - 

-  +  +  -  +  +  +-+  + 

-  +  +  +  +  +  + + 

--  + +  +  +  + 

+  +  +  +  +  -  +  +  -  + 

-  +  +  +  -  +  +  --  + 

+  -  +  +  +  + h  + 

+ +  -  +  -- 

-  +  +  -  + +  - 

+  -  +  -  +  --+  +  + 
+  -  +  --  + 

Positive  correspondences ....         69 
Negative  correspondences ...         50 

Zero  correspondences o 

Degree  of  Correspondence . .  .  +.  160 


+  +  -  +  +  -  +  +  + 

-  +  +  -  +  -  + 

-  +  +  --  +  --  +  + 

-  +  +  +  +-  +  +  +  + 
+  -+  +  -  +  +  + 

-  +  +  +  +  +  +  +  +  + 
-+  +  -  +  +  +  -+  + 

+  +  --  +  -- 

+  +  -  + 

+  --  +  +  - 

+ +  -  +  + 

-  +  +  +  +  -  +  +  + 
Positive  correspondences ....         66 
Negative  correspondences.  .  .         52 

Zero  correspondences o 

Degree  of  Correspondence.  .  .  +.119 


APPENDIX 


87 


CORRESPOKDENCE  OF  THE  MOVEMENT  OF  WHOLESALE  PRICES  WITH  THE  MOVEMENT 

OF  THE  Amount  of  Money  in  Circulation  in  the  United  States  for — 


SECOND   month  PREVIOUS 


Ti/r««+T,      o       000      oooooo':;':; 


PREVIOUS  MONTH 


+   +    -  +   +  - 

+    +    -  O     -  + 

0-1 + 

-    +    + 

+    +    +  +    +  + 

+    +    -  +    +  + 

+    +    +  +    +  - 

+  -  +  -  +  - 

+  +  +  —  + 

+  -   o  + 

+  -  +  +  +  o 

Positive  correspondences 80 

Negative  correspondences S3 

Zero  correspondences 10 

Degree  of  Correspondence +  •  189 


Jan. .  . 

-  +  +  +  + 

Feb... 

+  -  +  +  +  - 

Mar.  . 

+  +  +  -  +  + 

Apr. .  . 

.    0   -  +  -  -  + 

May. 

.-  +  -  +  -  + 

June. 

. +  -  + 

July.. 

+  + 

Aug. . 

.   +  -  +  +  0   + 

Sept.. 

,    -  +  +  0    0   + 

Oct.. 

.  +  0   + + 

Nov.  . 

.   +  + +  + 

Dec. . . 

.    -  +  +  -  +  + 

-  +  +  + 
+  -  +  +  + 
+  +  +  -  + 

o   +  -  +  - 

-  +  -  +  + 

-  +  +  + 

+  —00 
+  +  +  o 
o    + 

+  +  -  -  + 

-  +  +  -  + 


+ 


+ 


-  +  + 

-  +  +  -    o    -  + 

+  +  +  —  +  + 
+  +  -  + 

++++++ 
+  +  —  +  - 
+  +  +  —  + 

+  +  -    o    +  - 


+ 


Positive  correspondences 83 

Negative  correspondences so 

Zero  correspondences 10 

Degree  of  Correspondence +.231 


SAME  MONTH 

lV4^,^Tifli        00000000        00"M 

iVLonLn      ooCTO^oioiOiOi     o»o>o*     o 

Jan...        -  +  +  +  -  +  + 

Feb.  ..+-  +  +  +  -0+-0+  + 

Mar.  .   -\ +  +  +0+  +  -  +  + 

Apr. ..    o-H 1-  +  +  - 

May. .   -  +  +  -  +  -  +  +  +  +  +  - 

June.  .+  +  +  -  +  +  +  -  +  + 

July.  .    -  +  -0    -  +  +  -  + 

Aug. .. 1 o    +  -\ ho 

Sept.  .-  +  +  +0    +  +  +  +  +  +  + 

Oct.  ..   +   0+ +  +  +  +  +  -0 

Nov.  .   +H 1-  +  +  —  o  H — 

Dec. .   -  +  H +  H +0 

Positive  correspondences 76 

Negative  correspondences 55 

Zero  correspondences 12 

Degree  of  Correspondence + .  147 


FOLLOWING   MONTH 


-  +  +  +  -    o    + +  - 

+  + + +  +0+  + 

+  +  +  -  +  -0+  +  +  -  + 

0+  +  -H +  +  +  - 

0-++ 

-  + +  +  +  + o 

-  + 0+   + +   +   + 

-  +   +   +0    +   +  +   +   +   +   + 

+   0+ +  +  +  +  +  -0 

+  + +  +  -0 

-  +  +  —  +  + + 

Positive  correspondences 73 

Negative  correspondences 58 

Zero  correspondences 11 

Degree  of  Correspondence + .  io6 


88 


MONEY   AND   PRICES 


Correspondence  of  the  Movement  of  Wholesale  Prices  in  the  United  States 
WITH  Movement  of  Circulation  of  Money  for — 


Per 

Capita 

Total 

ad  Year 

Previous 

Same 

Following 

Previous 

Same        Following 

2d  Year 

Previous 

Year 

Year 

Year 

Year 
.1867. 

Year 

Year           Year 

Following 

— 

+      '.'.'. 

.1868. 

+ 

— 

— 

+ 

+      ... 

.1869. 

.  .  .       — 

+ 

— 

— 

+ 

+ 

—       .  .  . 

.1870. 

...      + 

—                — 

— 

+ 

+ 

— 

—       .  .  . 

.1871. 

.  .  .       — 

—                — 

— 

+ 

+ 

— 

.1872. 

...      + 

+               + 

+ 

_ 

+ 

— 

.1873. 

— 

—                — 

+ 

_ 

+ 

— 

+      ... 

.1874. 

— 

+ 

+ 

+ 

4- 

+      ... 

.1875. 

.  .  .       — 

+               + 

+ 

+ 

+ 

+      ... 

.1876. 

...      + 

+               + 

— 

+ 

+ 

+ 

+      ... 

.1877. 

...      + 

+ 

— 

+ 

+ 

+ 

—       .  .  . 

.1878. 

...      + 

—                — 

— 

+ 

+ 
+ 

+ 

— 

—       .  .  . 

.1879. 
.1880. 
.1881. 
.1882. 

...      + 

—                — 

— 

_ 

J  + 

+ 

+      ... 

+      ... 

J      +               + 

+ 

-  r 

...      + 

+               + 

— 

+ 

+ 

— 

+      ... 

.1883. 

— 

—                — 

— 

_ 

— 

+ 

—       .  .  . 

.1884. 

.  .  .       — 

—                — 

+ 

_ 

+ 

— 

+      ... 

.1885. 

— 

+ 

— 

+ 

+ 

— 

.1886. 

— 

+ 

— 

+ 

— 

+ 

+      ... 

.1887. 

— 

+               + 

+ 

+ 

+ 

—       .  .  . 

.1888. 

...       + 

+               + 

+ 

o 

o 

o 

o 

.1889. 

...      .0 

0                 0 

0 

— 

+ 

— 

— 

.1890. 

— 

—                — 

— 

+ 

— 

— 

—      .  .  . 

.1891. 

.  .  .       — 

—                — 

+ 

_ 

— 

+      ... 

.1892. 

.  .  .       — 

+ 

— 



_ 

+ 

— 

.1893. 

— 

+ 

+ 

_ 

+ 

+      ... 

.1894. 

...      + 

+ 

+ 

+ 

+ 

+      ... 

.1895. 

.  .  .      — 

+               + 

— 

+ 

+ 

— 

.1896. 

...      + 

+ 

— 

+ 

+ 

— 

— 

.1897. 

...      + 

—                — 

— 

+ 

+ 

+      ... 

.1898. 

...      + 

+               + 

+ 

+ 

+ 

+ 

+      ... 

.1899. 

...      + 

+               + 

+ 

+ 

+ 

+ 

+      ... 

.1900. 

...      + 

+.               + 

+ 

— 

— 

— 

— 

.1901. 

.  .  .       — 

—                — 

— 

+ 

+ 

+ 

+      ... 

.1902. 

...      + 

+               + 

+ 

+ 

+ 

+ 

+      ... 

.1903. 

...      + 

4-           + 

+ 

_ 

— 

— 

—      .  .  . 

.1904. 

— 

—           — 

— 

+ 

+ 

+ 

+      ... 

■  1905 • 

...      + 

+           + 

+ 

+ 

+ 

+ 

+      ... 

. 1906. 

...      + 

+           + 

+ 

+ 

+ 

+ 

+      ... 

.1907. 

...      + 

+           + 

+ 

— 

— 

—      .  .  . 

.1908. 

.  .  .       — 

—           — 

— 

+ 

+ 

+ 

—      . .  . 

.1909. 

...      + 

+           + 

+ 

+ 

+ 

— 

—      .  . . 

.1910. 

...      + 

+           + 

+ 

+ 

.1911 . 

— 

— 

(For  1879-1911  take  the  part  of  the  table  below  the  heavy  line.) 


APPENDIX 


89 


Correspondence  with  Per  Capita  Circulation 


1867-1911 


SECOND   YEAK   PREVIOUS 


Positive  correspondences . 
Zero  correspondences . . .  . 


Negative  correspondences . 
Degree  of  Correspondence . 


PREVIOUS   YEAR 


Positive  correspondences 27 

Zero  correspondences i 


Positive  correspondences . 
Zero  correspondences .  .  .  . 


Positive  correspondences . 
Zero  correspondences .  .  .  . 


Negative  correspondences 15 

Degree  of  Correspondence : +  •  279 


SAME  YEAR 


Negative  correspondences 16 

Degree  of  Correspondence + .  250 


FOLLOWING  YEAR 


Negative  correspondences 20 

Degree  of  Correspondence +  .047 


Positive  correspondences . 
Zero  correspondences.  .  ,. 


Positive  correspondences . 
Zero  correspondences . . . . 


1879-1911 


SECOND  YEAR  PREVIOUS 


Negative  correspondences 14 

Degree  of  Correspondence +-033 


PREVIOUS  YEAR 


18 


Negative  correspondences 12 

Degree  of  Correspondence + .  194 


SAME    YEAR 


Positive  correspondences 19 

Zero  correspondences i 


Negative  correspondences 12 

Degree  of  Correspondence +  •  219 


FOLLOWING  YEAR 


Positive  correspondences . 
Zero  correspondences . .  .  . 


16 


Negative  correspondences 14 

Degree  of  Correspondence +  .065 


Correspondence  with  Total  Circulation 


1867-igii 


PREVIOUS   YEAR 


Positive  correspondences . 
Zero  correspondences .  .  .  . 


Negative  correspondences . 
Degree  of  Correspondence . 


SAME  YEAR 


Positive  correspondences 23 

Zero  correspondences 1 


Negative  correspondences 20 

Degree  of  Correspondence +  .068 


FOLLOWING    YEAR 

Positive  correspondences 23        Negative  correspondences 19 

Zero  correspondences i        Degree  of  Correspondence +  -093 


Positive  correspondences . 
Zero  correspondences .  .  .  . 


SECOND    YEAR   FOLLOWING 


Negative  correspondences 20 

Degree  of  Correspondence +  ■  024 


Positive  correspondences . 
Zero  correspondences .  . .  . 


Positive  correspondences . 
Zero  correspondences .  .  .  . 


Positive  correspondences . 
Zero  correspondences .  .  .  . 


1879-1911 


PREVIOUS    YEAR 
IS 


Negative  correspondences . 
Degree  of  Correspondence . 


SAME    YEAR 

18        Negative  correspondences 13 

I        Degree  of  Correspondence + .  is6 


FOLLOWING   YEAR 

18        Negative  correspondences. 


I        Degree  of  Correspondence + .  194 

SECOND   YEAR  FOLLOWING 

Positive  correspondences 17        Negative  correspondences 12 

Zero  correspondences i        Degree  of  Correspondence + .  167 


I 


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